Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

I have it under good authority that we are going to see a lot more of those videos in the coming months. We are talking about all sensor feeds being displayed and operated in different conditions. Tesla is serious about showing their progress and building confidence in the system.

Since this is the investor forum, let me make this prediction.

Right now the market clearly doesn't believe Tesla can either achieve level 5 on its current hardware suite or deliver it in the timeframe Elon announced, this will change in the coming months. The "lidar or nothing" crowd will not go down without a fight, but they will lose credibility quickly.

Fred having it on good authority - good enough for me.

Cant wait to see the self-driving tech running like that in inclement weather, on poorly maintained roads, through construction sites, and reacting to other drivers doing dumb things.

At the end of the video posted this week as the MX is parking itself, you can see a man on the left side of the road ahead of the car that seems to be orchestrating the pedestrian traffic around the car - though doing so in a way that should be obviously difficult for the car to deal with, like the person who walks directly in the path just as it initiates the parking manoeuvre.

 

[MitchJi]

I agree with this assessment and see it as "the other" important stock price growth promotor in 2017, together with Model 3 production actually taking off of course.

You forgot TE, plus late in the year Solar Tiles and Panels.

Also if SCTY is cash flow positive in Q4 or Q1. Elon said that they would break out their numbers (in order be transparent).

 

[Yuri_G]

Yes, knowing the model 3 is roughly a year away, and knowing what that will do to the SP is sometimes the only thing holding my sanity together. Some of you guys come off as pretty well off, while I'm renting a room out of some guy's condo, and losing a whole paycheck before I even get to work in the morning multiple times this month is a bit painful. So sorry, to you Johan, I guess we won't be friends, but I am hanging in there, even if I'm a bit sour at times.

You're gambling, man. Only play with money you can afford to lose. I know it has been mentioned to you before, but it's important enough to mention again. If your livelihood starts to become impacted by "investing", it's not investing anymore. Sorry to get all preachy, but there's no reason to be in that position.

 

[TMSE]

You forgot TE, plus late in the year Solar Tiles and Panels.

Also if SCTY is cash flow positive in Q4 or Q1. Elon said that they would break out their numbers (in order be transparent).

Would the Q4'16 earnings report, be a combined Tesla+SolarCity report?

 

[Krugerrand]

Normally, being very late is not considered an achievement.

I didn't say it was.

 

[Krugerrand]

If so, then I think the next major catalyst in the short term capable of producing the long awaited short squeeze possibility is a second stellar ER ( continuation of the Q3ER which many on WS considered 'gamed'). I think it would have had a profound upside push *IF* the email about 'pie in the face' had not been leaked. So, we need a second confirming great ER to signal WS that being profitable and self funding is a reality.

I'm going to play because you've brought up a point that has been discussed but mostly ignored (along with a whole bunch of other ones). To me it has always seemed illogical to bet on the short term share price for the following reason: Elon Musk

Publically states several times he wouldn't have taken the company public if he didn't have to. (Strongly dislikes having to answer to shareholders/The Market/others of that ilk.)
Publically states several times he does not care about the short term SP of TSLA.
Publically announces on multiple occasions that The Market has over valued his company. (That's a dig at a segment of The Market. We about had a riot here over that one.)
Publically pokes the shorts/bears. (That's a dig at a segment of The Market)
Has gotten almost belligerent with multiple analysts on ERs.
Has allowed such statements (paraphrased) as the following on earnings reports: If you are concerned about what we do in the short term, take your money, and go invest it somewhere else.
Writes an e-mail (intentionally or unintentionally leaked - I don't know) to his employees and encourages them to work hard so that the company can embarrass The Market disbelievers.
Raises capital through The Market and in the next breathe announces a huge merger. (That was its own pie in the face.)

He's pretty much done everything a CEO can do to irritate The Market.

So you think a Q4 repeating Q3 is going to move the SP up? It's possible because anything is possible, but I wouldn't trust Elon Musk to not speak his mind between now and then irritating The Market again. Flip a coin.

Logical reasons to invest short term in TSLA:

1) More money than you know what to do with.
2) Your a Wall Street professional AND you're REALLY good at your job.
3) You regularly have lunch with Elon Musk AND the big market dudes so are privy to what Elon is going to say and how The Market is going to react after lunch.
4) Security didn't show up for work and you can count cards.

 

[AlMc]

I'm going to play because you've brought up a point that has been discussed but mostly ignored (along with a whole bunch of other ones). To me it has always seemed illogical to bet on the short term share price for the following reason: Elon Musk

Publically states several times he wouldn't have taken the company public if he didn't have to. (Strongly dislikes having to answer to shareholders/The Market/others of that ilk.)
Publically states several times he does not care about the short term SP of TSLA.
Publically announces on multiple occasions that The Market has over valued his company. (That's a dig at a segment of The Market. We about had a riot here over that one.)
Publically pokes the shorts/bears. (That's a dig at a segment of The Market)
Has gotten almost belligerent with multiple analysts on ERs.
Has allowed such statements (paraphrased) as the following on earnings reports: If you are concerned about what we do in the short term, take your money, and go invest it somewhere else.
Writes an e-mail (intentionally or unintentionally leaked - I don't know) to his employees and encourages them to work hard so that the company can embarrass The Market disbelievers.
Raises capital through The Market and in the next breathe announces a huge merger. (That was its own pie in the face.)

He's pretty much done everything a CEO can do to irritate The Market.

So you think a Q4 repeating Q3 is going to move the SP up? It's possible because anything is possible, but I wouldn't trust Elon Musk to not speak his mind between now and then irritating The Market again. Flip a coin.

Logical reasons to invest short term in TSLA:

1) More money than you know what to do with.
2) Your a Wall Street professional AND you're REALLY good at your job.
3) You regularly have lunch with Elon Musk AND the big market dudes so are privy to what Elon is going to say and how The Market is going to react after lunch.
4) Security didn't show up for work and you can count cards.

Agree with general sentiment that it is tough to call short term SP of TSLA.
There are better alternatives short term

But, it also means that since we can't know the ST direction we don't know if the train has left the station.

 

[mmd]

At the end of 2015 GM said:
"GM leadership has essentially fast-tracked this car into production." There was an announcement that the Bolt would be built at the Orion Assembly facility near Detroit and there are Bolt mules out testing. "It's very safe to assume that this car is going to be here sooner rather than later," Balch said. "We've also committed that it's going to be a 50-state vehicle at launch. That's to show our commitment to the technology. Our hope is that it becomes a high-volume-selling car, and that it's not just for the coasts, it's not just for a certain income level, but it is a long-range EV that anybody can get themselves into. ... [This is] a good alternative to the luxury long-range EVs that are available now. It's something that people can see themselves actually affording to get into. That's the message from this car."
We all know you and your psuedo skeptic act would pummel tesla mercilessly had they committed to a "fast-tracked production" with a "nationwide launch" for the model 3 and then months later changed it just before launch to CA only with a "slow ramp"...

This is another good bet. It will be hard to find bolts for sale in non ZEV states in 2017.

Hmm, I wonder if you and @FredLambert read the insideevs article?
About your highlighted part: GM did fast track the Bolt. Typical auto development cycle is 4 years. You can read some info here: Automobile Design: How long does it take to develop a car design from scratch? - Quora

The standard time for most companies from the drawing board to commercialization usually used to be 4 years for most companies. But like everyone has mentioned with new state of the art technology and better management, some companies have brought it down to 2 years.

Just to add more color: all the answers assume that the powertrain is "off the shelf:" that is, we are only developing a new MODEL, not a new ENGINE + MODEL. That would add more years to the process. Also, speed to some extent depends on whether the model is built on an existing PLATFORM or not. A new model on a new platform (new fundamental underlying structure) will take much longer than a new model on an existing platform.

GM is actually taking a car from concept show in Jan 2015 to real customer deliveries in Dec 2016. That too, a car that is on an entirely new platform with a drivetrain that's not GM's main line of expertise. These will be real deliveries. Not just to Mary Barra, and a few billionaires or multi-millionaire CEOs as in the case of Model X.

We will have to wait till next year to see if it is a compliance play by GM or a slow and cautious launch. There is hardly any reason to launch it everywhere right away. BTW, i'm not defending GM or anything, but just waiting before concluding either way. With Trump's upset victory, it's possible GM gets second thoughts.

If anything, you should be worrying about the Model 3 being delivered in Q3 next year. I have not even seen any pictures of the pre-production model yet. I will wait till end of Q3 for @FredLambert 's article lambasting Tesla for delivering just 6 hand built Model 3s to Elon's near and dear.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Is it me or did Elon gain some weight?

View attachment 202910

Probably a vest. Let's be honest here: there are thousands of firms in the fossil fuel industry, and entire nation states, that will want Elon "no longer here." He should have a body guard team 24/7 given how much "disrupting" he's doing . . . the world is changing and they wish for the change to stop.

 

[sdtslafan]

Hmm, I wonder if you and @FredLambert read the insideevs article?
About your highlighted part: GM did fast track the Bolt. Typical auto development cycle is 4 years. You can read some info here: Automobile Design: How long does it take to develop a car design from scratch? - Quora


GM is actually taking a car from concept show in Jan 2015 to real customer deliveries in Dec 2016. That too, a car that is on an entirely new platform with a drivetrain that's not GM's main line of expertise. These will be real deliveries. Not just to Mary Barra, and a few billionaires or multi-millionaire CEOs as in the case of Model X.

We will have to wait till next year to see if it is a compliance play by GM or a slow and cautious launch. There is hardly any reason to launch it everywhere right away. BTW, i'm not defending GM or anything, but just waiting before concluding either way.

If anything, you should be worrying about the Model 3 being delivered in Q3 next year. I have not even seen any pictures of the pre-production model yet. I will wait till end of Q3 for @FredLambert 's article lambasting Tesla for delivering just 6 hand built Model 3s to Elon's near and dear.

A billionaire or multimillionaire wouldn't be caught dead in a Bolt. But they waited in line for the X

 

[Krugerrand]

But, it also means that since we can't know the ST direction we don't know if the train has left the station.

My train left, of this I'm very sure.

 

[SteveG3]

...:

"Or you can listen to those who say Tesla should be valued on a similar basis to a company like Ford"

as if only a fool would think such a thing.

do you think it would be wise to leave growth rate out of one's valuation and ignore that Tesla's sales are projected to grow at roughly 10X the rate of the rest of the industry for many years to come?

the fact that the "Tesla overvalued" narrative, paired with the willful blackout of discussion of growth rates, by its detractors can be repeated for years without this subversion of the basics of fundamental valuation being called into question by the financial media only illuminates that these media outlets are merely informercials... an enabling platform for the unnamed agenda driven pseudo investment analysis of the highest bidders.

 

[Green Pete]

Anyone else starting to feel like Elon is gunning really hard to make the Model 3 steering wheel optional? Like not to use, but actually delivered to you without having a steering wheel.

 

[SteveG3]

Anyone else starting to feel like Elon is gunning really hard to make the Model 3 steering wheel optional? Like not to use, but actually delivered to you without having a steering wheel.

Green Pete, I'm sure he'd love to do that, but it doesn't look possible from a regulatory viewpoint. Hopefully there will be Model 3 deliveries by about this time next year, yet If Tesla rolled out the self-driving ability in shadow mode this morning, there would still be years of collecting data and regulatory deliberation before it can be used. in the mean time, we're gonna need those steering wheels.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Anyone else starting to feel like Elon is gunning really hard to make the Model 3 steering wheel optional? Like not to use, but actually delivered to you without having a steering wheel.

Like SteveG3 said, there will be a steering wheel.

But I have a suspicion that the steering wheel may be possible to push out of the way, into the dash, or something similar. This may be an option.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Fred having it on good authority - good enough for me.

Cant wait to see the self-driving tech running like that in inclement weather, on poorly maintained roads, through construction sites, and reacting to other drivers doing dumb things.

At the end of the video posted this week as the MX is parking itself, you can see a man on the left side of the road ahead of the car that seems to be orchestrating the pedestrian traffic around the car - though doing so in a way that should be obviously difficult for the car to deal with, like the person who walks directly in the path just as it initiates the parking manoeuvre.

The videos are definitely interesting.

Try watching the last video, looking only at the hands. I tried doing so, with the theory that the engineer in the front seat is used to having to intervene in certain situations, and will thus prepare himself to take control in those situations. My observations are as follows:

- In the first video, the hands were facing up. I take this to mean that previously, the engineer was at a higher state of readiness to take control, something that suggests they've probably done a lot of improvements in the last month.
- The last couple of miles before Tesla HQ, he was almost completely still. I take this to mean that he is very used to driving on those roads, and knows the car can handle them flawlessly.
- The only situation where he seemed significantly anxious is when there were two pedestrians on the side of the road. I take this to mean that he was unsure about whether the car would just keep trailing the pedestrians, and that he would need to intervene to go around them.
- He also seemed slightly anxious about the cyclist. (Assuming he saw the cyclist in the rear-view mirror.)
- He seemed slightly twitchy in the more complex intersections. I take this to mean that he is trying to absorb all the traffic information, more than anything else.

Another observation is that the previous video was edited in a way that would allow them to use the best footage from multiple attempts of driving the whole route without intervening. The last video was unedited, which means they did the whole drive in one go. They may have tried several times to get a good video, but there's no doubt the car can actually drive itself fairly reliably.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does this mean what I think it does??

 

[Lessmog]

Does this mean what I think it does??

View attachment 202936

Depends on exactly what you do think it means but my guess is AP2 will be out by before New Year. Until then you can always play Yakety Sax on Spotify ... but keep hands on

 

[Matias]

Based on new AP video, I am going to put some new money on Tesla-stock. I newer place too much to one stock, so my total investment in TSLA is going to be about 5% of my portfolio. But that 5% is very interesting

The reasong for putting in more money is, that I see the AP 2.0 as tremendous differentiator.

 

[JBRR]

Why it doesn't make sense for politics to turn against Elon Musk and Tesla
No new information - just a good read regarding the "political climate".