Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GoTslaGo]

I think that Elon thinks that first batch of FSD could be uploaded by Easter Holiday. Note the question mark in the tweet, so it is not a commitment, but a possibility in his opinion.

I think that this means that there is a good chance that by the time Model 3 ships in volume, the first iteration of FSD software will be complete.

At that time it would be interesting to see a video of Tesla vehicle navigating a route in FSD mode in Pittsburgh, side-by-side with a roof-top Taj Mahal adorned Uber vehicle doing the same.

I personally like the "ghost-busters" station wagon analogy for the Uber-mobiles.

 

[Gerardf]

Volkswagen CEO says sees case for building own battery factory: paper

Good news, Interesting change from just one month ago :

VW CEO denies plans for a giant electric vehicle battery factory

Müller told Handelsblatt that while Volkswagen is investigating the entire battery production process chain as part of its plan to build 2 to 3 million all-electric cars a year and unveil 30 new models by 2025, but that building its own factory would be “nonsense”.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Good news, Interesting change :
VW CEO denies plans for a giant electric vehicle battery factory

Müller told Handelsblatt that while Volkswagen is investigating the entire battery production process chain as part of its plan to build 2 to 3 million all-electric cars a year and unveil 30 new models by 2025, but that building its own factory would be “nonsense”.

Sounds like Tesla may end up being the NVIDIA of the battery industry. These legacy car makers are pathetic.

 

[cheshire cat]

from memory it's mid?60's Boots Randolph

This all happened a long time ago, in a different millennium and in an almost forgotten medium called tv, but I think that the British comedian B.H. used this format of high-speed film with Yakety Sax as soundtrack as he went about the country leering at young women in bikinis. At least, I think that's the title of the music. Doubt he wrote it.

Edited: Spleinng. I blam keybored.

 

[Value Ev]

A Field Guide to Manipulative Short-Selling Techniques

.... When you think the dip has bottomed out, buy then...

... all traders, short and long, make money by buying low and selling high
.

This is really great advice.

There are people here who see the price drop and feel that they need to sell at a loss...before it goes lower and the losses are worse.
This is what is called in the industry: "buying high and selling low".
That does not work.

In addition, one should buy when they think that a dip has bottomed out! Do not buy when you think the price is going to go even lower.
This is what is called in the industry: "catching a falling knife". Wait until the knife has fallen (as pointed out the "dip has bottomed out").

That ties in the first point, if you can buy when the price is lower, you can later sell it when it goes higher!
This really isn't rocket surgery or brain science.

Here is some more information that includes ideas like the above - it is a book that Warren Buffet read at 19 that was one of the things that shaped his thinking:
https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-...ing-Practical/dp/0060555661/?tag=biarchive-20

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Annoyed, frustrated, pessimistic, yeah. But you're talking to someone who has 150% of his lifes savings in this stock at the average buy price of 217, so yeah.

Hey Jay. While the others on this forum certainly have good advice, I can't say I don't understand your master plan It certainly is hard to get ahead these days. The cost of housing and basic living eats up the majority of the money us average joes have. The initial money I had invested in Tesla was borrowed on a line of credit and I make about $8000.00 Canadian. This last chunk represents 5 years worth of pension savings that cannot be taken out until retirement. I am currently 44. I am underwater of course. You have a better entry point than me. I plan on holding no matter where Tesla goes as I don't need the money before I turn 65 and will have other sources of income by that time. Like you, I feel it is a once in a lifetime opportunity and I will not allow myself to sit on the sidelines. My investment is not that significant in the grand scheme of things. It represents just under $40K Canadian. For the average joe to be investing in Tesla and make any real money it is next to impossible. Real money is hard to make with 5 or 10 shares. You realistically need at least 100 shares and this will set a person back 19K USD which is over 25K Canadian. As you can see from this forum the majority of the folks invested are very wealthy, very intelligent and most likely own successful businesses. These are the folk that can afford to have 1000s of shares. It takes money to make money. I sincerely hope Tesla your investment, whether you scale back or not, has an incredible impact on your future standard of living. I, for one, will chalk it up to a win for the little guy. The American dream.

 

[Value Ev]

Sounds like Tesla may end up being the NVIDIA of the battery industry. These legacy car makers are pathetic.

Why? Legacy car makers don't make their own tires or windshields either.
If it is cheaper to have someone else make components while at the same time have someone else take on the execution risk, that is a smart move.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Why? Legacy car makers don't make their own tires or windshields either.
If it is cheaper to have someone else make components while at the same time have someone else take on the execution risk, that is a smart move.

Point well taken. I am a little frustrated with these companies efforts to ramp production in EVs. I think they are stalling hoping for a collapse of the market.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I don´t get the connection with Benny Hill - music by him??

Close. True in the same sense that the William Tell Overture was by composer Kemo Sabe.

Most people were exposed to the song while seeing Benny Hill running across the British landscape in "undercranked" (aka "sped up") footage, in the end credits of every (?) episode.

So it'll be "The Benny Hill Theme" popularly until something else gets linked with the tune in people's minds.
"The Tesla Autopilot Theme?"

 

[EinSV]

As a follow-up to my post earlier this week on potential cash generation from Q4 S/X sales, I believe there is good reason to believe that Q1 2017 is trending to be even better than Q4 for cash generation. A big factor is TE, which should start ramping significantly in Q1.

But IMO there are good reasons to believe S/X sales to customers and leasing partners will generate even greater amounts of cash than in Q3/Q4 2016, including:

• Orders are now being taken in important new markets, such as Korea and Taiwan, for 2017 delivery.
• S/X sales in China and Hong Kong have been ramping extraordinarily quickly.
• $2000 increase is S60 base price will likely be in effect for the majority of Q1 deliveries.
• Many of the factors I mentioned in my Q4 post are not yet in full effect and will contribute even more in Q1 2017, including increased ASP and margins from AP2/FSDC, X60 phase out and higher option pricing (some X60s and orders with earlier option pricing are being delivered in Q4).
• 2017 order pipeline should be strong at the end of the year -- Tesla does not appear to be pushing very hard yet for customers to take delivery in 2016 v. 2017 and discontinuation of free supercharging plus activation of AP2 functionality should continue to drive new orders.
• Continued production efficiency and sourcing improvements.
• As summarized by @esk8mw, VIN number assignments appear to be increasing significantly in Q4 compared to Q3. To the extent vehicles with new VIN assignments are not delivered in Q4 they will be in Q1 2017.
• As @neroden notes above, OpEx should drop as a percentage of revenue as revenue increases.

Biggest potential headwinds that I see are:

• Currency changes -- US dollar has been rising quickly against Euro, Yuan etc. since the election. Unless Tesla has an effective currency hedge, this could eat into ASPs/margins unless Tesla raises prices, which could affect sales.
• Macros
• Trump

Overall, a little speculative at this point but IMO we appear to be trending for Q1 2017 to have significantly higher ASPs and margins than Q4. And if production gains continue, which seems likely, significantly higher sales volumes. So cash generation from S and X sales seems likely to grow in Q1 2017, even leaving aside the potentially significant contribution from TE.

Edit: Following up on input from @vgrinshpun, using a lower 27% GM estimate (v. 29%) and lower OpEx estimate ($560M v. $590M) results in a (very rough) estimate of $485M in cash generated in Q4, plus ZEV credits and Powerwall deposits, similar to the $500M estimate in my earlier post.

 

[GoTslaGo]

You're right of course, Fred, mmd doesn't know what he's talking about.

Either way thanks for the slowed down version of the new AP2 demo video from Tesla, it's quite amazing to see some of what's happening behind the curtain with the visual object tracking and recognition. Clearly this is not the Mobileye based hardware+software suite, but the Tesla in-house developed suite.

Watch Tesla’s latest self-driving demo in real-time instead of sped up for better look at the system

Interesting how at around 3:23 we can see a little dog with a person. The rendering picked up the person (blue box), but did not register the little white dog. IIRC Elon had mentioned that it may not see a small animal, but a larger animal (moose) shouldn't be a problem. Good example of what he was talking about.

 

[MitchJi]

You forgot TE, plus late in the year Solar Tiles and Panels.

Also if SCTY is cash flow positive in Q4 or Q1. Elon said that they would break out their numbers (in order be transparent).

Plus the impact when the market realizes that the Q3 results were not a fluke, but are mostly due to the fact that Tesla is finally building both MS-MX efficiently and that's going to keep improving.

Would the Q4'16 earnings report, be a combined Tesla+SolarCity report?

Don't know. Does it matter if the numbers are available?

because you've brought up a point that has been discussed but mostly ignored (along with a whole bunch of other ones). To me it has always seemed illogical to bet on the short term share price for the following reason: Elon Musk

Agree with general sentiment that it is tough to call short term SP of TSLA.
There are better alternatives short term

But, it also means that since we can't know the ST direction we don't know if the train has left the station.

But all of the major catalysts are expected (extremely high probability) to happen by the end of 2017. In other words the long term catalysts are rapidly turning into short and medium term catalysts. That's not to say that it's impossible for the SP to take two or four more dips in the short term. Probably risky until the M3 ramp is complete. Tesla's schedule is on track if they start producing the M3 by October-November, but that won't happen unless one or more suppliers miss their target date. If that happens how long do you think it will take before we're subjected to a bunch of FUD comparing the M3 ramp with the X ramp?

In other words I believe It's a safe bet that the train will leave the station before J19 LEAPS expire.

 

[SBenson]

Interesting how at around 3:23 we can see a little dog with a person. The rendering picked up the person (blue box), but did not register the little white dog. IIRC Elon had mentioned that it may not see a small animal, but a larger animal (moose) shouldn't be a problem. Good example of what he was talking about.

The video is only showing three cameras.

There is LOT more to AP 2.0 than what we were seeing in the clip. I doubt the dog would be at risk.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Interesting how at around 3:23 we can see a little dog with a person. The rendering picked up the person (blue box), but did not register the little white dog. IIRC Elon had mentioned that it may not see a small animal, but a larger animal (moose) shouldn't be a problem. Good example of what he was talking about.

What you're remembering was about the radar. The radar might not pick up a small animal. What the radar is seeing isn't displayed in the video.

 

[MitchJi]

I think Uber will lose to the automobile OEM's. If I was less confident in Tesla I'd probably consider buying Uber LEAPS puts.
Volkswagen CEO says sees case for building own battery factory: paper

Mueller said that Volkswagen has been in talks with ride-hailing service Uber on potential cooperation but the carmaker would not settle for the role as a mere supplier.

"They (Uber) saw us more in the role of a supplier. But we said: Okay guys, this is a contest which we are happy to take on. We will remain in command," Mueller said.

 

[neroden]

Just as a side note, my initial investments in TSLA were all in my IRA, which I can't take out for 20 years. This kept them separate from my "spendable money" and helped me ignore the short-term movement.

 

[KLC13]

Interesting news on VW seeing the need to build a battery factory. Elon did say he saw VW as the only real player who seems interested in taking on EVs seriously. It makes me confident that he is so well informed on the competition (unlike many other CEOs sitting in their ivory towers) and this also validates the multiple giga factories TSLA is considering.

 

[MitchJi]

After initial Trump trade, politics keep stocks on edge

"People are doing these ridiculous trades and writing these research notes about how to invest under a Trump presidency," Brown told the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit. "You have no idea what he is capable of."

Exactly. The market impact of him actually doing or attempting to do something will be much bigger than the speculation after one arguably false (based on his cabinet selection process and his record of lying) conciliatory speech.

 

[Papafox]

To integrate your position with that of Fallenone, I should point out that not all the High-Frequency Traders are simply making money off bid-ask spreads. Some of the program traders are actually programmed to go short or long by large amounts and they are programmed to do this off of *technical indicators*. I wouldn't be surprised if the "capping behavior" which Papafox sees is not done by humans but by bots.

Interesting theory, Neoden. My question would be "can you show me other companies where the bots are capping important technical numbers so effectively?" Maybe you can, I'd be very interested to see.

 

[3Victoria]

Nov 19
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk
@veritasDK @TeslaMotors That and Paint It Black will both be uploaded for free as Easter (holiday?) eggs

My best guess is the music tracks will be included as an Easter Egg for Christmas (pc translation = "holidays").