Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Mario Kadastik]

Yes, but exercising options that have a long time until their contract date will lose you all of the time value. So this will be an interesting situation, I allowed my Nov '18th options to be exercised and was planning to sell some today, but no luck with trading halted and TSLA not given either. Can't sell the relevant amount of TSLA either as that would increase margin, not reduce it Weird situation, I'd not have expected them to stop trading for a full day without converting the stock...

 

[MitchJi]

Thanks Mitch. I have JAN 18 SCTY calls @20. If TSLA1 is difficult to sell to close, does it make sense to just exercise, buy 11 TSLA @ 181.81? Seems like a good deal to me, what do you think?

The problem is that you lose any remaining time value. When you want to sell them I would try to do it with a limit order and if you can't get an acceptable price then you can exercise.

So, TSLA1 can be exercised, I'm assuming. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Then I'd own TSLA1 stock. Which they will convert?

Each TSLA1 will be the same as 11 shares of TSLA.

 

[MitchJi]

There are just too many layers of government that prevents such a "destructive" catastrophe. You may be overestimating the Trump "butterfly" effect.

Trump being elected caused TSLA SP to drop.

It's entirely possible that trump taking office, along with the reality of his actions, vs the dubious conciliatory acceptance speech could cause a dip in the SP.

That will be the when the ER-CC is happening and that could suck the air out of any ER related surge in the SP.

 

[AudubonB]

Note on BLATANTLY political posts

I've vaporized some inflammatory posts. Call them self-immolatory, as they truly have no place here. If someone wishes to discuss the likely effect of politically-related items on TSLA share prices and wants those posts to have a half-life longer than one picosecond, he or she is going to have to be FAR more circumspect than what has been posted.

 

[Papafox]

Trump being elected caused TSLA SP to drop.

It's entirely possible that trump taking office, along with the reality of his actions, vs the conciliatory acceptance speech could cause a dip in the SP.

That will be the when the ER-CC is happening and that could suck the air out of any ER related surge in the SP.

Trump has made a point to be conciliatory so far, and it's unlikely that he'll come out with guns blazing on inauguration day. Why? Because he's trying to prove that his views are good for America and sinking the markets would clearly indicate otherwise. So far the market has reversed its initial Trump dip, and last week we saw several days when the NASDAQ outperformed the Dow, suggesting that some of the sector rebalancing was being reversed.

It's important to separate the actual faults of Trump from the perceived faults. An unwillingness to address climate change is an actual fault. The storyline that he is a racist out to harm people of color so far has proven to be just a campaign dig and has not been reinforced with evidence.

My biggest concern around the inauguration time is whether civil unrest will cause a drop in the broader markets. Calmer rhetoric from those who oppose Trump will help to defuse tensions. Stay calm my friends and look for real evidence of what is about to transpire.

 

[tinm]

Trump has made a point to be conciliatory so far, and it's unlikely that he'll come out with guns blazing on inauguration day. Why? Because he's trying to prove that his views are good for America and sinking the markets would clearly indicate otherwise. So far the market has reversed its initial Trump dip, and last week we saw several days when the NASDAQ outperformed the Dow, suggesting that some of the sector rebalancing was being reversed.

It's important to separate the actual faults of Trump from the perceived faults. An unwillingness to address climate change is an actual fault. The storyline that he is a racist out to harm people of color so far has proven to be just a campaign dig and has not been reinforced with evidence.

My biggest concern around the inauguration time is whether civil unrest will cause a drop in the broader markets. Calmer rhetoric from those who oppose Trump will help to defuse tensions. Stay calm my friends and look for real evidence of what is about to transpire.

Let's see if Inigo Montelsa deletes this as well.

 

[dirtyofries]

The storyline that he is a racist out to harm people of color so far has proven to be just a campaign dig and has not been reinforced with evidence.

I'd argue his cabinet picks say otherwise - but that's for another forum and another discussion.

So far as climate change - yes. But I don't think his positions on it hurts Tesla directly. So for the purposes of this forum, I think we're overreacting.

 

[AudubonB]

Circumspection always is best....

 

[Papafox]

What would benefit this forum is taking the emotion out of any conversations about the White House's future occupant and directing discussion toward how the change will affect TSLA SP. Everyone on this forum understands that there are issues with Trump. Presenting non-emotional arguments complete with evidence is a whole lot more useful than the alternative.

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA seems to be treading water around +1% / $187. Is this the best the shorts can do? Or are they taking a break? (e.g. off for the whole week)

 

[Papafox]

TSLA seems to be treading water around +1% / $187. Is this the best the shorts can do? Or are they taking a break? (e.g. off for the whole week)

I suggest that we were seeing capping by shorts at 187.50 and then the cap moved down to 187 as trading allowed. With the NASDAQ heading hiigher in a steady gain after its initial run up and down, the shorts are settling for capping today because TSLA would run noticeably higher without their efforts. My guess is that for pushing the SP down, the shorts are waiting for a day or a time of day when the NASDAQ's movements reinforce their own. Low volume in the afternoons supports their strategies. All the same, I think Tesla releasing the autopilot videos this weekend is driving new investors to the stock today and it has foiled the plans of the shorts, even with a large drawdown in shares to short today.

Edit: The real victory of longs so far today is the market presenting evidence that longs aren't selling today out of fear of the SCTY merger. The false narrative that a big Monday morning dip could support never came true. This fear of selling after the merger was one of the last big negative catalysts that the shorts were depending upon. You have some shorts who must be getting nervous about good Q4 delivery numbers likely arriving in 40 days. They have to engineer a real dip between now and then to make remaining in TSLA a reasonable course of action. Strong buying support in the mid 180s is presently thwarting their efforts, and if the stock begins a nice edging up over time, some shorts will bail sooner than later. I'm thinking the macros will play a reasonable role in who wins the short-term contest.

 

[ggr]

So, TSLA1 can be exercised, I'm assuming. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Then I'd own TSLA1 stock. Which they will convert?

TSLA1 is the ticker for the non-standard options. They are non-standard because they are options for only 11 shares of TSLA. But when exercised, the stock delivered is real TSLA.

 

[Irishjugg]

To integrate your position with that of Fallenone, I should point out that not all the High-Frequency Traders are simply making money off bid-ask spreads. Some of the program traders are actually programmed to go short or long by large amounts and they are programmed to do this off of *technical indicators*. I wouldn't be surprised if the "capping behavior" which Papafox sees is not done by humans but by bots.

The majority of position taking by algos is to bet on gamma, theta, or Vega. Almost no automated trading tries to bet on delta, that is there don't bet on direction, just on change in implied volatility.

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA seems to be treading water around +1% / $187. Is this the best the shorts can do? Or are they taking a break? (e.g. off for the whole week)

Man, $187 is really a bitch.
Same as Friday. Love to crack it at close...

 

[Ovulation]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4025184-tesla-shows-meaningful-technological-progress

Mr. Santos from seekingalpha seems to get cold feeds

Summary

Tesla has shown meaningful technological advancements.

This article covers two areas where Tesla seems to have made progress: self-driving cars and solar roof tiles.

These advances create upside risk for short sellers.

 

[Value Ev]

Rather than getting emotional about President-Elect Trump, one needs to look at the macro events that may affect the price. This is not just about our new President and how he feels about something.

Think about this when looking at things like relaxing state dealership laws or subsidies or net-metering or any other macro issues that could affect either Tesla or the industry as a whole.

From another site:
"Nine hundred state legislative seats lost (by Dems) in the past eight years. That is a record for a presidential stint...
Only five states have a Democrat governor, House and Senate.
Republican governors rose from 22 to 31, Democrats falling from 28 to 18.
Republican state Senate seats rose from a 2009 level of 899 to 1,089, as Democrat seats fell from a 2009 level of 1,024 to 823.
Likewise, Republican state House seats rose from 2009 level of 2,334 to 3,029, as Democrats fell from 3,058 to 2,340.

 

[Ovulation]

I'm a bit nervous about the switch to the new autopilot hardware. If there are problems then the delivery target my be at risk. I haven't seen many delivers reported by now.

 

[GBleck]

Bahhh. Never post before your coffee kicks in on a Monday morning. The likely max you could miss out in a day of trading of slightly less then one share of tesla is like maybe $2-4.

 

[neroden]

There will be no short-term effects on TSLA stock price from the election; any effects would have happened the day after the election. Discuss in long-term thread if you must.

If there is a particular announcement with a short-term effect, we can discuss that.

 

[neroden]

The problem is that you lose any remaining time value

My hope is that by the time January 2019 comes around, the TSLA stock price will be so much higher than the option strike price that time value will be minimal to nonexistent. So I'll exercise them if that happens.