Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

Public Service Announcement:

I really enjoy all the discussions about demand. Others here, not so much. That's why there is a thread for that. Please use it.

Agree. Any breaking news regarding demand that might impact short term pricing seems appropriate in the short term thread, everything else should probably go into the Demand thread.

 

[JRP3]

"why buy a vehicle when I can summon one"

My answer would be because you might not be able to summon one at peak times, like every week day around 5 PM.

 

[JRP3]

Our long time critic that really, really cratered, John Petersen, popped up on SeekingAlpha on Saturday decrying green energy subsidies for Tesla. I presume his green energy endeavors didn't get enough and he's looking for a few clicks.

He's been getting more active lately, another one today Nonsense from John Petersen

 

[MitchJi]

Very few people buy the base model. Add 8k on for autopilot + a few options and ASP will be in the high 40s.

Autopilot will sell for less than $8k on the M3

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding Model 3 costs/profits as well as S/X.

2. Something I've seen overlooked almost everywhere -- the S/X will, at Tesla's choosing, also get the 2170 cells -- increasing margins by both the cost and density improvements. This is never mentioned by Bears in their "Model 3 can never be sold for $35K argument" but is a by-product of the Gigafactory's existence.

Not at the time of their own choosing, it's subject to their purchase agreement with Panasonic.

 

[1kEE]

I feel the gravity beneath my feet is slightly altered - I wouldn't exactly call -2% flat.

I was referring to extreme short term (20 mins...) and was wondering what's next, like the little bump up that just happened.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That's what I mean. You are dismissing the possibility without any real argument. AP1 is just the current refresh cycle. There will be a cycle after this one too, and one after that one too. For all of which the reasoning could hold.

I am not dismissing anything. What I am saying is that numbers to firm your point will not work. Sales of obsolete cars is a subset of all sales, including "demo" fleet and "inventory" sales. Are you seriously suggesting that sales of "obsolete" cars will be more than a fraction of the overall "demo" and "inventory" car sales? Your example is theoretical, and IMO has no practical meaning. That is my point.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I can't believe how shallow and myopic the market is. Current run-up in SP seem to be coincident with the NYT with the suggestion for Trump to talk to Musk being picked up by investment related newsfeeds.

Really, I mean really?? To say that this is superficial is an understatement of biblical proportions.

I guess, I should not complain - if SP can go down in a blink of an eye for no good reason, we should welcome similarly baseless run-up. I guess?? At least there are good real reasons for SP to go up, "efficient" market being blind to them notwithstanding...

 

[FredTMC]

Regarding postings in this thread... off topic vs on-topic

I've been on TMC forever now. This thread is the only thread I read DAILY

I've never found that there's too many postings here to handle.
I just skim past the ones that don't interest me. I'm pretty efficient about it

Just about any topic can have an affect on SP, so to me "it's all good"

I'm also fine with separate threads on Quarterly estimates, demand discussions etc. I always pay attention these threads around earning time or delivery announcements

 

[larmor]

I can't believe how shallow and myopic the market is. Current run-up in SP seem to be coincident with the NYT with the suggestion for Trump to talk to Musk being picked up by investment related newsfeeds.

Really, I mean really?? To say that this is superficial is an understatement of biblical proportions.

I guess, I should not complain - if SP can go down in a blink of an eye for no good reason, we should welcome similarly baseless run-up. I guess?? At least there are good real reasons for SP to go up, "efficient" market being blind to them notwithstanding...

I think it is a combo of low volume and unloading before tax year end (with re buy in Q1 next yr) vs. risk of run up if there is any news or info on deliveries to asia & europe.

 

[Rarity]

I can't believe how shallow and myopic the market is. Current run-up in SP seem to be coincident with the NYT with the suggestion for Trump to talk to Musk being picked up by investment related newsfeeds.

Well, Google News puts the article as being published before midnight last night, presumably revised about noontime today with Musk's comments. Don't know if it made it into today's hardcopy paper. Point being: I doubt the article had much to do with the stock movements.

A well-tailored pitch to Trump, I must say. Unfortunately, Musk doesn't have much activity in red states, expect Florida.

Edit: It does appear that the article made it into print, which Trump is said to read.

Edit #2: Checked the hardcopy version of today's NYT. Above the fold, top-left headline, on B1. Very good placement.

A version of this article appears in print on December 6, 2016, on page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Want More Jobs, Mr. Trump? Consider Calling Elon Musk.

 

[Kenriko]

Autopilot will sell for less than $8k on the M3

What makes you think this is true? Maybe they can get a better deal from Nvidia but the cost (to Tesla) of the Nvidia self driving system is "several thousand dollars" per car I had previously read it's on the order of 3-4K + cost to install in the cars + R&D with the software. How they can fit that into the 35k base price without charging (5-8k) for those who pay to enable it is beyond me.

 

[Zaxxon]

What makes you think this is true? Maybe they can get a better deal from Nvidia but the cost (to Tesla) of the Nvidia self driving system is "several thousand dollars" per car I had previously read it's on the order of 3-4K + cost to install in the cars + R&D with the software. How they can fit that into the 35k base price without charging (5-8k) for those who pay to enable it is beyond me.

You answered your own question. Surely they'll charge for it, and a significant amount. But I doubt it'll be $8k. Maybe $3k enhanced AP + $2k self-driving = $5k for full self-driving?

 

[3Victoria]

The cost is: 1. cost of hw in each car; and 2. development costs amortised over all cars. Therefore, more cars, less cost per car. Tesla has always said that the S/X are tech leaders and expensive, and help to pay for development. I expect AP2 will be cheaper for Model 3s. Certainly, the hw cost will decrease with time.

 

[Green Pete]

What makes you think this is true? Maybe they can get a better deal from Nvidia but the cost (to Tesla) of the Nvidia self driving system is "several thousand dollars" per car I had previously read it's on the order of 3-4K + cost to install in the cars + R&D with the software. How they can fit that into the 35k base price without charging (5-8k) for those who pay to enable it is beyond me.

It goes into the car whether or not the customer purchases it. I have to imagine that they are confident the vehicle is profitable even if the customer never purchased it.

I also imagine that they probably expect to make more money on their share of mobility services per car than on selling it as a physical product.

Also, it says on the order page its included. I get the feeling the additional costs on it now are self driving software development costs the same way the model s and x sales pay for model 3 and assembly line development costs.

All speculation, except the it says it's included on the order page for model 3s. I for one expect the model 3 to be 35k with pretty much every non-aesthetic feature minus larger battery capacity. It may be just wishful thinking but if the tesla network is half of what I think it will be selling cars for a profit could likely end up being Teslas smallest profit generator between car sales/energy product sales(including solar roofing), and tesla network (which I imagine will end up being the highest margin sector of their business)

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think it is a combo of low volume and unloading before tax year end (with re buy in Q1 next yr) vs. risk of run up if there is any news or info on deliveries to asia & europe.

One can't be absolutely sure, but, as discussed on this thread, (I think it was @neroden - apologies if my recollection wrong) the unloading, due to a 30 day wash rule, was likely completed in November.

 

[TMSE]

What makes you think this is true? Maybe they can get a better deal from Nvidia but the cost (to Tesla) of the Nvidia self driving system is "several thousand dollars" per car I had previously read it's on the order of 3-4K + cost to install in the cars + R&D with the software. How they can fit that into the 35k base price without charging (5-8k) for those who pay to enable it is beyond me.

Cost is nowhere what you mentioned. The 'several thousand' comment from NVIDIA CEO was for a complete system with NVIDIA software. Tesla is buying just the hardware parts from NVIDIA and has developed complete software stack in house. No one has any clue on what Tesla is paying to NVIDIA, we might never know. My guess is that it is under $1k.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I can't believe how shallow and myopic the market is. Current run-up in SP seem to be coincident with the NYT with the suggestion for Trump to talk to Musk being picked up by investment related newsfeeds.

Really, I mean really?? To say that this is superficial is an understatement of biblical proportions.

I guess, I should not complain - if SP can go down in a blink of an eye for no good reason, we should welcome similarly baseless run-up. I guess?? At least there are good real reasons for SP to go up, "efficient" market being blind to them notwithstanding...

Ha, this thing appear to have some legs. It would be hilarious if "talk to Trump" bump would be more that any bump from recent positive note from an analyst.

 

[Quassinoid]

Well, if your timely post can produce future bumps like this one, I don't mind that at all

 

[Drax7]

Next time Elon calls Boeing up for advise, maybe Boeing will pick up the phone.
Remembering the 787 battery incident.

Talk about ridiculous plane gov expenditures. Trump should transfer the $4 billion
to Musk immediately. That would expedite m 3 production and thousands of manufacturing jobs.

 

[SunCatcher]

There's no way this will happen without the inclusion of Elon Musk. What say ye? Or maybe Musk will even get his own private conference, as would be appropriate.

I predict a boost to stock price would surely follow.

I know, like the sun coming up everyday, I'm an optimist.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/us/politics/donald-trump-transition.html

Trump Plans Technology Conference With Silicon Valley Executives

The tech industry was almost universally opposed to Mr. Trump, which might give the meeting a touch of combativeness. His transition team and cabinet posts draw much more heavily from Wall Street than Silicon Valley.

There is one major exception: Peter Thiel, a vocal Trump backer who is now in New York helping with the transition. Late last week, David Sacks, the chief executive of Zenefits, said he was stepping down amid conflicting reports that he will be working on the transition as well. Mr. Sacks is a longtime associate of Mr. Thiel.

The list of those being invited was not immediately clear, but among those expected are Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, Tim Cook of Apple and Sundar Pichai of Google.