dennis
Model S Plaid
It will be a miracle if Uber is able to go public IMO. They lost $800M on $1.7B in revenue in Q3. Their last private round of $2B was raised at about $65B pre-money. I had a chance to invest...and didn't thankfully.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Let's not spread untruths. Trolls don't live in caves. They live under bridges.
I KNOW!!!
I have a feeling today is going to be like yesterday in that the stock started high but the low volume afternoon will create an opening for shorts to drive the stock price down. Just the same, I am expecting next week's low volume holiday trading to be a pleasant surprise.
Supposedly, short positions are at 40% and if the 4Q deliveries are as good as we are hoping, someone may be tempted to instigate the overdue short squeeze.
Perhaps the Krampus sacked some of the trolls and took them to his cave?
To those unfamiliar with the real story of Krampus, - not the one featured in a movie last year, here is a great explanation.
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
Perhaps the Krampus sacked some of the trolls and took them to his cave?
Is there any evidence you can link to that Krampus lives in a cave? I really think it's important we get this right.
I'd say something about the short term SP at this point if there was something to say about it that wouldn't cause outrage and turmoil. I've gone down my checklist of possibilities;
it could go up, it could go down
it's volatile
it's up, oh wait...
it's down, oh wait...
elephant
break out in song
poetry
Nope, I got nothing.
Is there any evidence you can link to that Krampus lives in a cave? I really think it's important we get this right.
I'd say something about the short term SP at this point if there was something to say about it that wouldn't cause outrage and turmoil. I've gone down my checklist of possibilities;
it could go up, it could go down
it's volatile
it's up, oh wait...
it's down, oh wait...
elephant
break out in song
poetry
Nope, I got nothing.
Here you go. One of my favorites.
Basically, Krampus must have been the inspiration for the Grinch.
Krugerrand
Meow
Here you go. One of my favorites.
Basically, Krampus must have been the inspiration for the Grinch.
Hilarious, but no indication he lives in a cave.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Three catalysts, the first two increase demand which is not currently (IMO) an issue.
3 Catalysts for Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Vehicle Deliveries This Quarter -- The Motley Fool
<Snip>
3. Increasing production
Finally, rising production during Tesla's fourth quarter should make it easier for the company to deliver more vehicles than its guidance for "just over 25,000 units" calls for. Barring any unexpected bottlenecks in Tesla's factory, it's likely the company continued to increase production during the final quarter of the year
In Tesla's third-quarter shareholder letter, management specifically noted it was still ramping up production of its Model X. While Tesla management has repeatedly emphasized how difficult it is to predict the SUV's production ramp-up, it has certainly been very rapid recently. Thanks to rising production of the vehicle, third-quarter Model X deliveries jumped 89% sequentially. While Tesla's conservative guidance for total vehicle deliveries obviously suggests investors shouldn't expect such a sharp increase in Model X deliveries in Q4, it's unlikely the continued production ramp-up for Model X won't lead to at least slightly higher deliveries during the quarter.
These three catalysts combined should make it fairly easy for Tesla to beat its own guidance for vehicle deliveries in the final quarter of the year. The company has beat its quarterly guidance for vehicle deliveries in 11 of the past 14 quarters, but has missed its guidance twice this year. Tesla announces vehicle deliveries within three days of each quarter's end, so investors can expect an update on the key metric during the first three days of January.
3 Catalysts for Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Vehicle Deliveries This Quarter -- The Motley Fool
<Snip>
3. Increasing production
Finally, rising production during Tesla's fourth quarter should make it easier for the company to deliver more vehicles than its guidance for "just over 25,000 units" calls for. Barring any unexpected bottlenecks in Tesla's factory, it's likely the company continued to increase production during the final quarter of the year
In Tesla's third-quarter shareholder letter, management specifically noted it was still ramping up production of its Model X. While Tesla management has repeatedly emphasized how difficult it is to predict the SUV's production ramp-up, it has certainly been very rapid recently. Thanks to rising production of the vehicle, third-quarter Model X deliveries jumped 89% sequentially. While Tesla's conservative guidance for total vehicle deliveries obviously suggests investors shouldn't expect such a sharp increase in Model X deliveries in Q4, it's unlikely the continued production ramp-up for Model X won't lead to at least slightly higher deliveries during the quarter.
These three catalysts combined should make it fairly easy for Tesla to beat its own guidance for vehicle deliveries in the final quarter of the year. The company has beat its quarterly guidance for vehicle deliveries in 11 of the past 14 quarters, but has missed its guidance twice this year. Tesla announces vehicle deliveries within three days of each quarter's end, so investors can expect an update on the key metric during the first three days of January.
Hilarious, but no indication he lives in a cave.
Okay, it doesn't say a cave, but I guess it's implied since he lives high up in the mountains and no building is shown?
Krugerrand
Meow
Okay, it doesn't say a cave, but I guess it's implied since he lives high up in the mountains and no building is shown?
Ah...you're extrapolating and deducing. Fair enough.
I simply don't see how this can end well. Uber has no means to escape the cash-burn. Tesla is on the cusp of gaining credibility in FSD. They will lose access to private-equity market pretty soon if they haven't already... Going IPO will be their last ditch effort for insiders to get out of the sinking ship. It would be short of the century in my view.
The article is making a very linear projection. Do we know how long the factory line was down for AP 2.0 adjustments? Also are all the 5-seat X's flushed out by now? Was there a hold up on the line because of this?
To be honest InsideEv's numbers bother me. The running theory was extreme batching going on. But Norway numbers so far don't confirm that. Q4 is not a clear shot.
Tesla again tops Consumer Reports owner satisfaction survey.
Consumer Reports: Car Brands Ranked by Owner Satisfaction
Automotive News: Tesla dominates owner satisfaction survey, Consumer Reports says
Electrek: Tesla crushes Consumer Reports Owner Satisfaction ranking again – 91% would buy again, 2nd and 3rd at 84% and 77%
Consumer Reports: Car Brands Ranked by Owner Satisfaction
Automotive News: Tesla dominates owner satisfaction survey, Consumer Reports says
Electrek: Tesla crushes Consumer Reports Owner Satisfaction ranking again – 91% would buy again, 2nd and 3rd at 84% and 77%
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Uber might be a terminal short, if it were public. I don't know its private-equity backers, but I agree that being in their shoes would be exceedingly uncomfortable right now, and for the foreseeable future.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Here is a breakdown of the 20 companies conducting autonomous driving testing in CA. Notable absent of course is Uber with their temper tantrum in CA but also Toyota which I was surprised to not see registered in CA. It's clear the center of gravity for testing autonomous cars is CA. This is a big data game where Tesla is clearly out front.
Automotive Manufactures:
Tesla Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Nissan, GM, BMW Honda, Ford, Faraday & Future Inc., Wheego Electric Cars
Automotive Suppliers:
Bosch, Delphi Automotive, Valeo North America, Inc. NVIDIA, Telenav, Inc.
Web Giants:
Google, Baidu USA LLC
Silicon Valley Startups:
Zoox, Inc.
Drive.ai, Inc.
NextEV USA, Inc.
Testing of Autonomous Vehicles
Automotive Manufactures:
Tesla Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Nissan, GM, BMW Honda, Ford, Faraday & Future Inc., Wheego Electric Cars
Automotive Suppliers:
Bosch, Delphi Automotive, Valeo North America, Inc. NVIDIA, Telenav, Inc.
Web Giants:
Google, Baidu USA LLC
Silicon Valley Startups:
Zoox, Inc.
Drive.ai, Inc.
NextEV USA, Inc.
Testing of Autonomous Vehicles
Krugerrand
Meow
Where's Lucid? I thought they advertised their car autonomous capable; they've got enough hardware in it but if they aren't testing it out in the real world....
The numbers aren't a slam dunk but if we look at a number of factors I'm not worried about deliveries:
- VIN assignments off the charts this quarter
- No discounting of any sort this quarter - this is number 1 in my view, if they were low on sales I think they'd move to clear everything out as in Q3
- Repeated price increases (who would do this if sales were lagging?)
- If you read the X forums, there are very few reports of cars being promised in December and not being scheduled. I know, I know - sample size - but this year this has actually been a great predictor of overall deliveries. I was nervous earlier this month when I saw week delays on X due to AP2 changeover/Thanksgiving, but it appears the issues are resolved now and things are back on track.
- 5 seater issue resolved, deliveries happening
- Once again massive number of cars in transit at the end of Q3
- InsideEVs greatly overestimated Q3 deliveries (based on my model) because US deliveries were prioritized. I think they are missing the other way in Q4 (unless they report massive Dec numbers) because intl deliveries were the sole focus for the first 6-8 weeks of Q4.
- Historical practice of delivering more than production in Q4 (not sure this will apply here, but it mitigates any factory shutdown questions)
Registrations in Norway so far in December: Model X 305, Model S 138, total 443. I expect some more to come.
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