Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

- VIN assignment could be to fill up the inventory and borrow against those from ABL? Seems like they have over 500 P100Ds in inventory, but only showing 33 on ev-cpo.com.
List of all P100D inventory cars

- We only need to look back at Q1 and Q2 to get an idea of sales when there was no openly widespread discounting. We can see some good discounts even now, on ev-cpo.com. If you are in for a P100D, this is a good time.

Sorry, I don't have time/desire to read or refute your other points. Apologies.

If you read the OP in that thread, and look carefully at the linked spreadsheet, the data there is scraped as of 12/2, 20 days ago - so many of those cars likely have owners now, and around 60 of the cars listed are P90Ds.

 

[dennis]

I honestly do not understand how Uber is a money-losing business. What is capital-intensive about a ride-hailing app that takes a cut of all fares?

Probably a dumb question, but what do they spend their money on? Drivers bring their own cars.

- Self-driving R&D?
- Satellite expenses/map creation R&D?
- Ads?
- Insurance?
- Lobbying/permits?

I'm not even sure if half of those expenses are significant and I still don't see how this company loses $800 million a quarter even if all 5 of those are going full bore. What am I missing?

I learned from a friend that was at one of their investor presentations that when the enter a new city/market they subsidize the drivers because the set the price artificially low to get people hooked on the service. This means they lose money on every ride for some period of time.

 

[austinEV]

I learned from a friend that was at one of their investor presentations that when the enter a new city/market they subsidize the drivers because the set the price artificially low to get people hooked on the service. This means they lose money on every ride for some period of time.

1) Lose money
2) ?????
3) Profit!

 

[JBRR]

Sep 2016: 247 Ss; 601 Xs
Dec 2015: 373 Ss ---but 1,248 Ss in Denmark (IRC another 20% of the DN vehicle tax exclusion drops off at year-end 2016)

You are correct - prices are increasing on average 27% in Denmark at years end.

Sales of EV's have all but stopped in Denmark, so I expect some kind of rule change during 2017.

 

[Green Pete]

1) Lose money
2) ?????
3) Profit!

Uber has no intention of making money on rides with drivers. It's an investment bubble geared toward
1. Contract out a lot of drivers as a innovative tech company

2. Bring in massive investment

3. Carefully balance a negative operating cash flow with growth so as to acquire as many markets as possible.

4. Acquire more cash from investors seeing the size of your company.

5. Use money to buy real companies with profitable concepts like self driving trucks, cars and passenger drones.

6. Use investment money to start putting contractors out of work with self driving cars.

7. Discontinue driver based service for the highly profitable self driving car service.

They are on step 5 trying to get to step 6. If they don't get there uber will amount to being essentially the biggest poni scheme/failed unicorn ever. I'm pretty sure they will fail. Google and tesla are making far more headway. Uber's market moat is not particularly significant.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The numbers aren't a slam dunk but if we look at a number of factors I'm not worried about deliveries:

- No discounting of any sort this quarter - this is number 1 in my view, if they were low on sales I think they'd move to clear everything out as in Q3
<snip>

This is second time you've said it - what are you talking about?

I still think they'll kill it...

 

[W84M3]

This is second time you've said it - what are you talking about?

I still think they'll kill it...

No discounts on new (AP2 and <50 miles) inventory

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

it's approaching the upward trend line... maybe we'll see something interesting tomorrow morning. it usually jumps on high morning volume.

I find that 250 line held 3 times today, and in general SP seems to respond to it since the climb started

 

[Lump]

This is second time you've said it - what are you talking about?

View attachment 207303

I still think they'll kill it...

They are not "discounting", they are offering a discount...thats a big difference in Tesla speak.

 

[MitchJi]

Another reason for Solar and EV's:

China: Toxic Smog Descends on Nearly Half a Billion People | Democracy Now!


China: Toxic Smog Descends on Nearly Half a Billion People

In China, tens of thousands of residents have fled their homes amid an air quality "red alert," as a thick blanket of toxic smog settled in over nearly a half-billion people. Since Friday, authorities have warned of off-the-charts air pollution levels in at least 23 cities, mostly in northern China. Visibility from the smog was so bad in places that officials closed highways and grounded airplanes. China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, which is largely responsible for the smog.

 

[MitchJi]

Elon just tweeted:

Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week

 

[Papafox]

Elon just tweeted:

Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week

Cha-ching! Go ahead and count that autopilot 2.0 (but not self-driving) revenue in Q4 if plan remains on track.

 

[vgrinshpun]

They are not "discounting", they are offering a discount...thats a big difference in Tesla speak.

Yea, absolutely no difference between discount and depreciation.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Cha-ching! Go ahead and count that autopilot 2.0 (but not self-driving) revenue in Q4 if plan remains on track.

View attachment 207311

Looks like they are cutting it really close, and not including all of the functionality, just most of it. I will take it nevertheless...

 

[Lump]

Yea, absolutely no difference between discount and depreciation.

Speaking of depreciation, I am sure the value of your P85+ is holding up better then you expected, right?

 

[MartinAustin]

This is second time you've said it - what are you talking about?

By "no discounting" I think esk8mw was referring to the unofficial haggle-style discounting that was reportedly going on at some salesrooms - nipped in the bud by Elon via email. That is not happening at all now.

Possible catalysts tomorrow -

* Consumer Reports survey
* Restoration of Autopilot functionality on Hardware 2, i.e. everything proceeding to plan
* Anticipation of January 2nd Q4 deliveries announcement. (classical "buy the rumour, sell the news")
* Anticipation of January 4th Gigafactory event

 

[T3slaTulips]

Elon just tweeted:

Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week

If you have an HW2 vehicle, get out there and drive it so they'll have the data they need.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Speaking of depreciation, I am sure the value of your P85+ is holding up better then you expected, right?

Good, so you know the difference between discount and depretiation. What's up with pretending that there is no difference then?

 

[Lump]

No difference.

They could call it "End of QTR Firesale to move every last vehicle hoping to throw pies at WS in order to raise capital" for all I care.

 

[Hawkeye]

Are we sure there is a January 4 th gigafactory event? Has that been confirmed recently?