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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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This is second time you've said it - what are you talking about?

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I still think they'll kill it...
I guess my post wasn't perfectly clear unless you paid attention to the discussions in q3.

Of course there are discounts for showroom cars, there always have been and always will be (why buy a car that has been used at the same price as custom?). What I meant by no discounts is that it appears they have not adjusted the algorithm for q4 as they did in q3 to give additional money off. Also, no lease deals as with the 24 month lease deal in q3 (I took advantage, the deals were huge). Finally, there's limited or no reports of waiving destination, delivery, etc fees (actually, they increased them). Just about everyone buying inventory in q3 got those fees waived.

So, compared to q3, they havent done any of those three things and have instead increased prices and fees. To me, that says deliveries are just fine...and margins will be awesome. Here's some notes on margin for q4.

Increased prices, including options
Increased fees
No additional discounting on inventory
100 packs finally ramping and shipping worldwide (elons top priority next to m3 per last call)
X production still ramping and getting better (see motley fool note)
No more x60
S60 buyers springing for high margin options (see recent analyst note)
Ap2 high margin option introduced
 
Tesla is the top ranking car brand when it comes to customer satisfaction

But TSLA bears are wise - they understand that outdated metrics like customer satisfaction and brand loyalty are no longer relevant for consumer product companies. In the long run what difference does it make whether or not people like your products and want to buy them? Besides, it's hard to peg an exact value on TSLA so that means it must be worth very little. In investment terms it is what is called a 'cult'.
 
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By "no discounting" I think esk8mw was referring to the unofficial haggle-style discounting that was reportedly going on at some salesrooms - nipped in the bud by Elon via email. That is not happening at all now.

Possible catalysts tomorrow -

* Consumer Reports survey
* Restoration of Autopilot functionality on Hardware 2, i.e. everything proceeding to plan
* Anticipation of January 2nd Q4 deliveries announcement. (classical "buy the rumour, sell the news")
* Anticipation of January 4th Gigafactory event


How about Guy Adami picking Tesla as his top pick tonight on Fast Money?
 
There will be a story about "launchgate" on Electrek on Friday. Tesla has put a non documented launch limit to some cars. After certain number of lauches, it reduces maximum power permanently.

Pack Performance and Launch Mode Limits
Was just about to quote your post there in here.

Hopefully Fred has more information than the other posters have disclosed so far, and frames in a minimally damaging way.

From the sound of things, it only affects the short-lived P90DLv2 and it only reduces the power back to P90DLv1 levels. It's certainly unadvertised behaviour, and Tesla should probably do something to make it right (like perhaps a big discount on the P100DL upgrade that Service Advisors are suggesting to owners that have hit this limit), but it's hardly earth shattering.
 
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Here is a question that might have something to do with TESLA future revenue: is it possible for currently Model S/X to upgrade to larger battery after 10 years? Say, 10 years later, 130 kwh battery is only $20000, and my 10 year old 75D can upgrade to 130D? Any rumors of that?
 
Here is a question that might have something to do with TESLA future revenue: is it possible for currently Model S/X to upgrade to larger battery after 10 years? Say, 10 years later, 130 kwh battery is only $20000, and my 10 year old 75D can upgrade to 130D? Any rumors of that?

I'm 100% certain, no one (including Elon) knows, what Tesla does 10 years from now.
 
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Was just about to quote your post there in here.

Hopefully Fred has more information than the other posters have disclosed so far, and frames in a minimally damaging way.

From the sound of things, it only affects the short-lived P90DLv2 and it only reduces the power back to P90DLv1 levels. It's certainly unadvertised behaviour, and Tesla should probably do something to make it right (like perhaps a big discount on the P100DL upgrade that Service Advisors are suggesting to owners that have hit this limit), but it's hardly earth shattering.

You are right, the affected population is small, but the practise itself is very shady.

You ask from customers very big bucks from something that they can only use 25 times and don't tell that in advance.
 
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You are right, the affected population is small, but the practise itself is very shady.

You ask from customers very big bucks from something that they can only use 25 times and don't tell that in advance.

You're misrepresenting it.

If the limit is indeed 25 (unconfirmed as yet) or not is irrelevant.

The P90DLv2 with performance degradation to v1 levels is still a higher level than P90D without L.

I absolutely agree that it's shady to not tell customers about this limit in advance (though it's not entirely clear if this limit existed prior to firmware 8.0), but characterizing it as taking away the feature they paid $10k for is incorrect.
 
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