Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dc_h]

M3 will have lines at the stores. How many orders is hard to say, but it will create huge marketing buzz. 200,000 seems overly optimistic. Hopefully the reservation process is very streamlined, swipe, sign and move on. Regarding demand, I think this will be THE car for millennials and though boomer, I'll be lining up in person. I think there will be two battery options, keeping it simple. The first year may only be high end cars, until production is fully built in Freemont. Based on Wheeler comments, I assume they will start with a smaller line to build in beta. This will likely be the first production line, so they may only plan on 1000 a week during initial rollout to manage capex timing and limit hiring until production is full speed. Having a full Model X production team and little X production hurt GM in Q4. Managing that as you work up to a 300,000 rate will require phased approach.
Can they build 6000 a week on one line, or will they build multiple production lines, with one paint and final assembly line?

Is Model 3 the major short term issue now, or is confirmation that the X ramp is real and on track for 1000 in Q2?

 

[dreamingof3]

Crude up 10%

Market up

tsla down. Scratches head, pounds hand on desk.

 

[techmaven]

Crude up 10%

Market up

tsla down. Scratches head, pounds hand on desk.

At this point, if you are holding stock, this is about the Model 3 unveiling really. No reason to panic.

If you are a short term trader, then you'd better strap in. There's going to be a lot of gyration from here.

 

[AudubonB]

Yeah, but how will it do with the evangelicals?

It'll probably do great, because the other EVs are so low energy!

Did you know that "evangelicals" is an anagram for....

1. "EV cells again?"

2. EVs gain a cell

3. EV: gas in a cell


Just thought y'all'd like to know. Beats looking at today's price action.

 

[BriansTesla]

And that's exactly the flagship M3 needs. It will be a very high GM niche product that will also provide a nice halo to the entire M3 line. This will be the car you'll see most often reviewed, the car many young guys will dream about before they order that sweet deal of a mid-range model. Think P90DL reviews turning into maxed out 70D orders.

I think a good comparison for the model levels of the M3 would be a Subaru Impreza (at a higher level). For that car you have the base model Impreza, the WRX performance version and the STI super quick performance model priced at $18,990, $26,295 and $38,495. Just for comparison, an 85% price premium gives likely M3 pricing levels of $35,130, $48,645 and $71,215.

At the reveal, I am expecting 100K in orders in short order with a nice range of optional equipment and pricing.

Also expect a huge uptick in the SP from the reveal, even if it is short term.

 

[dmunjal]

Agree, except for the bolded.

I bet the screen will be same size as the Model S/X. A new screen size requires engineering cost. It will also take away one of the distinguishing features of a Tesla. If Amazon can sell a tablet for $40, Tesla can put the 17" screen in a $35K car.

Also doesn't make much sense to exclude navigation.

No Android or Apple Car Play?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Volume has slowed down. It's low enough that option expiration and max pain can do some work here. Max pain is quite a bit lower than current price and very flat $100-$135
As I discussed elsewhere, approaching higher values like $150 causes call option holders to sell ans book some value, which causes underline shares sale, hence we get pushed away from higher prices, especially $150.

If there were conviction, this resistance would be overcome, but as someone said, lots of bulls on the sideline.

I'm in the same boat. I was gonna buy some shares/calls, instead decided to sell (uncovered) puts for $140 next week.
Which is 'meh' type of conviction...

 

[jhm]

I think we can be sure that they will at least offer either insane mode or ludicrous mode. The switch and fuse required for ludicrous probably cost under $200 extra and are part of the million mile drive line. I think the HW will be on every Tesla sold.

I think the question we need to ask is why wouldn't they offer an $5-$10k option that costs them almost nothing additional to provide (only requires SW)?

Well, if it's that cheap, I think they should just make it standard on the base version Model 3. That would be one heck of a base model!

The question I was asking was whether the P distinction really needs to be made. If there really is not a significant price difference, then the option amounts to a badging or status issue. I don't think that is consistent with Tesla's value proposition.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, if it's that cheap, I think they should just make it standard on the base version Model 3. That would be one heck of a base model!

The question I was asking was whether the P distinction really needs to be made. If there really is not a significant price difference, then the option amounts to a badging or status issue. I don't think that is consistent with Tesla's value proposition.

Currently 90D and P90D are different in motors they use too.
Putting fuse for I/L mode makes sense, as does charging for it as a separate item. It's basic market segmentation. You pay if you have money for it. Tesla can offer to enable it post sale too, which is great way to get some extra margin down the road. For example, they can offer it even to second owner...

 

[ZenMan]

Buddyroe,

I know you were watching the supercharger build out closely. I think Tesla is setting up for a good first quarter followed up by huge reservation numbers for Model 3 first week of April. It looks like Tesla dumped anything that didn't have long term value into expense in Q4 (if you call something obsolete you expense it rather than continue to depreciate it over time). So they take a one time hit on earnings, but set the stage for better numbers in 2016.

Jason is also timing expenditures to match revenue, so we probably won't see more Supercharger build out until Model X is shipping in volume. Cash flow is king, and I'm sure Tesla doesn't want their cash balance to go down or ABL line to go up until after Q1 results are announced. In fact they probably want cash balance to go up and ABL to go down to reinforce the idea that they won't need to tap additional capital this year. They want good numbers for Q1 and I think they will get them.

You wanted them to show you the steak, well the supercharger slow down means they understand this and will show the steak this quarter.

 

[lango]

Well, if it's that cheap, I think they should just make it standard on the base version Model 3. That would be one heck of a base model!

The question I was asking was whether the P distinction really needs to be made. If there really is not a significant price difference, then the option amounts to a badging or status issue. I don't think that is consistent with Tesla's value proposition.

Model 3 is not a vehicle for the masses that competes on price. It is a premium brand ("premium electric vehicles") and model 3 is a premium vehicle .
As such you need/should have performance and exclusive models. Technology, performance and design is what creates the premium value.

 

[jhm]

Currently 90D and P90D are different in motors they use too.
Putting fuse for I/L mode makes sense, as does charging for it as a separate item. It's basic market segmentation. You pay if you have money for it. Tesla can offer to enable it post sale too, which is great way to get some extra margin down the road. For example, they can offer it even to second owner...

You made my point, it's a badging issue. Build one physical version of the Model 3 for streamlined manufacturing. Then use software to turn on and off basic features, and make the customer pay for badging. CPO and existing cars can easily be reconfigured and rebadged to extract the most cash from the customer's ego. Brilliant.

 

[lango]

You made my point, it's a badging issue. Build one physical version of the Model 3 for streamlined manufacturing. Then use software to turn on and off basic features, and make the customer pay for badging. CPO and existing cars can easily be reconfigured and rebadged to extract the most cash from the customer's ego. Brilliant.

Very interesting idea. It would mean the CPO margins in some cases could get really good. For this to work you of course only enable it to go in one direction, so the used car buyer can only enable features and add a badge, and not the other way around.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Did you know that "evangelicals" is an anagram for....

1. "EV cells again?"

2. EVs gain a cell

3. EV: gas in a cell


Just thought y'all'd like to know. Beats looking at today's price action.

Hey, where are my 99 points? Just askin'

 

[dreamingof3]

We are at December 2013 Levels.......think about that. With all of the developments for Tesla, release of X, Tesla energy, Tesla 3 soon. Very hard to fathom anyone thought Feb 2016 we would be back at these levels.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

We are at December 2013 Levels.......think about that. With all of the developments for Tesla, release of X, Tesla energy, Tesla 3 soon. Very hard to fathom anyone thought Feb 2016 we would be back at these levels.

Honestly, you seem very upset by all of this, and I therefore recommend that you re-evaluate your asset allocation in TSLA.

Investing in this stock is risky, and IMO beyond the risk tolerance of most investors.

 

[AudubonB]

Hey, where are my 99 points? Just askin'

Well, for starters, they're not yours.

'Cuz ya didn't get "it".

I'll wait until the close of the market. This is supposed to be a snort-term thread, someone once told me....

 

[aznt1217]

We are at December 2013 Levels.......think about that. With all of the developments for Tesla, release of X, Tesla energy, Tesla 3 soon. Very hard to fathom anyone thought Feb 2016 we would be back at these levels.

Well... many people who are against Tesla doesn't think there would be an level except 6 feet under, so there's that. lol

Literally with this drop, 2 years of gains were wiped out for long term shareholders like myself. The only time we switch to short term orientation is if we see the opportunity for accumulation (ex tax payments). I did this in November 2013. I wish I could've done it this time around.

 

[Lump]

We are at December 2013 Levels.......think about that. With all of the developments for Tesla, release of X, Tesla energy, Tesla 3 soon. Very hard to fathom anyone thought Feb 2016 we would be back at these levels.

Underperformed the S&P 500.

Returned about the same as F & GM for those that point out TSLA relative outperformance on selective days.

 

[stealthology]

With the relentlessness of the shorts, do you all think we need a surprise them to change this trend? So that some shorts begin covering and smart money buys more. What catalysts could help propel the share price higher? I don't want to count on Tesla Energy too much in the short term since they seem to be downplaying it.

• Model 3 Reveal & Musk potentially revealing res. #'s
• Model X ramp up (full ramp up in Q2)
• Model X reviews from major publishers beginning < 1 month (Elon)
• What else?

Ha! I guess you could sort of say that this is more like a preparation for a major short squeeze. I just can't imagine any weak longs left that are getting out that did not already get out of their shares in the panic of the last few weeks. To me this seems more like more shorts are getting in foolishly.

Didn't someone on this board make it sound like a squeeze isn't possible at such depressed levels since they aren't underwater? That could have just been negative thinking. I think for a real squeeze, we'd need a surprise on the level of supercharger network announcement, gigafactory, tesla energy, etc.

I see zero recovery happening. I see a new 52 week low, I see more misery for longs like myself that stuck around thinking "it can't go lower". Shorts absolutely are out to destroy the share price and along with it the Tesla story. I cannot believe this bs

Zero recovery? So you're shorting? If it was meant to be, eventually it will be corrected in the share price.

I think the real question is, whether you believe Elon or not. The problem is, during the last two years all his predictions and promises have been too positive.

Does he eventually get most of them done? Are most other CEO's as ambitious as he is? He aims high, maybe higher than he should publicly state sometimes. I think with the recent earnings call, he's changing a little.