Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Crowded Mind]

This poll shows up in headline news for TSLA only. Not for F, GM or TM. Yeah, the sample is totally representative. Whoever designs such methods of polling?
There are only the TSLA longs and shorts voting there, not even the likely M3 buyers. And their responses are very predictable.

I still think it is an interesting indicator. Within 2 hours, 4,000 people have already indicated that they will be reserving. What % of people that will be reserving do you think have responded to this poll in the last 2 hours? I would guess it is less than 5%?

 

[Julian Cox]

I agree, and that's largely why I don't much post anymore.

DaveT said: ↑
Is it just me or has this thread become unreadable?
Lump said: ↑
+1
95% of the posts are off topic to short term traders, this thread has been hijacked by a small group with their ramblings.
maoing said: ↑
Same here. Many veteran folks complain this but sadly little action from moderators.
I agree, and that's largely why I don't much post anymore.

Thank you for collating the off topic posts about posting off topic. Perhaps that discussion should go in a separate thread to determine if discussing catalysts for price movements in one or two weeks or two days time is on topic or off topic.

 

[austinEV]

+ @jhm - who raised the same point.

Long term this is essentially correct.

Short term it does not matter who Tesla is targeting. Tesla cannot control and does not seek to control who from the broad market places a reservation.

Model S pulled in a *lot* of upgraders. 15% of the early Model S (as at approximately May 2013) was a Prius conquest and 25% were Toyota conquests generally. The first guy sitting in line in Australia for 48 hours outside a Tesla store stated he currently owns a low-value Toyota (Camry or something similar).

I think it is inevitably the case that the largest percentage of early conquests of the Model 3 will be compliance EVs and Hybrids. These have been bought and often leased by a self identified demographic that is willing to pay a premium (often a significant premium) for fuel economy and / or a car that epitomizes a conscientious objection to emissions. There is absolutely no point trying to sell a Bolt or Mercedes B Class Electric or a BMW i3 against the Model 3 - all $30-$40K vehicles that are totally hobbled for style, driver interface innovation, luxury and performance, range (arguably excepting the Bolt), and of course lack of meaningful highway charging.

Model 3 will represent a must-have alternative to this demographic representing in many instances an instant doubling of value for money when set against the value drivers known to appeal to this group - and limited only by absolute affordability which I suspect will roll back a 100% conquest by not quite 50%, maybe not even 25% and trimmed not much further than that by concerns over home charging convenience for apartment dwellers, unfamiliarity with the Tesla brand and the concept of reservations and waiting - and yet waiting while saving for a deeply exciting personal vehicle upgrade is going to be an effective counterbalance. Basically I think the Model 3 will stick a fork in the Prius market on an unimaginable scale before so called "Targeted" Mercedes, BMW and Audi conquests get a look in - and those will be significant too.

I predict that sales of Priuses, leafs will decline badly for the next 2 years as people hold off for the 3. So be ready to endure this headline "Sales of EV's plummet to 5 year low!". (Story will bundle plug in, hybrid and BEV) Tesla sales will be up (S/X) but this "green" segment will suffer from people waiting to replace their vehicles.

 

[geneclean55]

Stock market indices just spiked. Yellen comments?

 

[CyberDutchie]

Thank you for sharing this. If my recollection is correct, in his original "shared mobility" report in which he assigned $450 PT, AJ speculated that a reveal of Tesla's approach to this speculated by AJ part of the business will happen at the time of unveiling of the Model 3, which in his opinion ostensibly would have to have the variant designed for Tesla's shared mobility business.

I am wondering if Elon's musings about how much to reveal at the Model 3 event has to do with shared mobility, rather then unrelated certain features of Model 3. If they are considering pursuing the shared mobility business in a way AJ envisions at all, it would be inconceivable for them to NOT have a variant of Model 3 designed specifically for this business. The question is whether they will choose to talk about this during or shortly after the event. If they do, it would be something that is not widely expected and could have some profound impact on SP (as well as gratification of AJ's ego...)

Speaking of variants of Model 3, Adam Jonas goes pretty wild with his expectation that multiple variants of Model 3 may be unveiled Thursday:

"Body styles. While we are not certain how much will be communicated this Thursday, we expect the Model 3 range will include a variety of body styles including a 4-door sedan, coupe, cabriolet, small SUV and other passenger configurations."

 

[Ulmo]

Stock market indices just spiked. Yellen comments?

Seems so. Perhaps I ought to have an all-market feed coming my way for these types of things. Ugh. More noise pollution.

 

[Fallenone]

Speaking of variants of Model 3, Adam Jonas goes pretty wild with his expectation that multiple variants of Model 3 may be unveiled Thursday:

"Body styles. While we are not certain how much will be communicated this Thursday, we expect the Model 3 range will include a variety of body styles including a 4-door sedan, coupe, cabriolet, small SUV and other passenger configurations."

I think AJ sometimes are just a little too wild in his predictions. The most important thing for Model 3 is not having too much variations to increase the time and capital requirement to develop and produce it.

 

[Fallenone]

So... weak longs cashing out? Anyone actually paying attention to what UBS wrote? NASDAQ is going up and oil is down but going up, so TSLA weakness is mostly its own. Selling ahead of news?

I just don't think Tesla + Musk is going to show us a flop. There's going to be a lot of pain and elation on Friday regardless.

I'm pretty happy to see we are ranging around this price. If we have a rally a few days before Model 3 reveal, we would have a higher chance of sell the news effect. At the current price level, considering the enthusiasm of people I've seen in the Model 3 sub-forum, and the ramp-up of Model X, I think we're good to avoid the sell the news and actually may see a leg up pretty soon.

 

[brantse]

Elon is so dedicated that he is personally producing one more Ex this quarter!

Not really a new one, as it's been produced before. I guess you could say that it's been remanufactured to the latest spec and delivered again.

 

[Muaddid]

You're right Rhino.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Not really a new one, as it's been produced before. I guess you could say that it's been remanufactured to the latest spec and delivered again.

You mean she was refurbished ?

These comments are unnecessary and in really poor taste.

 

[Ulmo]

What's the likelyhood of Model 3 being $35K? When we find out that's adjusted up or down, that will be sometime in late 2017 or 2018 when they're ready to stamp.

These comments are unnecessary and in really poor taste.

If I were moderator, I could move them into a "previously in short term TSLA thread", along with some of my useless posts and the ramblings of others. To the ramblings, I could post a link saying "post moved here", so people can ruminate the ramblings as if they are short time related.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

If I were moderator, I could move them into a "previously in short term TSLA thread", along with some of my useless posts and the ramblings of others. To the ramblings, I could post a link saying "post moved here", so people can ruminate the ramblings as if they are short time related.

call it: "The long of the short term thread"

 

[Drax7]

DaveT said: ↑
Is it just me or has this thread become unreadable?
Lump said: ↑
+1
95% of the posts are off topic to short term traders, this thread has been hijacked by a small group with their ramblings.
maoing said: ↑
Same here. Many veteran folks complain this but sadly little action from moderators.
I agree, and that's largely why I don't much post anymore.

Thank you for collating the off topic posts about posting off topic. Perhaps that discussion should go in a separate thread to determine if discussing catalysts for price movements in one or two weeks or two days time is on topic or off topic.

I find all relevant information and analysis useful in decision making. Julian's analysis
On the tesla disruption is amazing, and please keep posting.

 

[geneclean55]

One day we get a positive analyst report, the next day a negative. One day oil goes up, the next it goes down.... bla...
Cant wait to just hear what the company has to say for ITSELF over the next few days. I also think Musks lack of juicy Tesla tweets over the past few weeks is a good omen.

 

[DaveT]

Thank you for collating the off topic posts about posting off topic. Perhaps that discussion should go in a separate thread to determine if discussing catalysts for price movements in one or two weeks or two days time is on topic or off topic.

Julian, this thread would be immensely improved if you were to either create your own thread for your long-winded posts or post your posts in the appropriate thread (which 99% of the case isn't this one).

Or if the moderator(s) would step in and be super diligent in moving off-topic posts to appropriate threads, then that would help immensely as well.

As it stands, this short-term thread used to provide a ton of value and used to be the highlight of the entire TMC website for many people. Now value in this thread has deteriorated for many (dare I say most) people. Maybe we can save this thread. I hope so.

 

[maoing]

Can't agree more with DaveT again. Btw, who knows what happened to "jesselivenomore"? Is he completely banned from TMC?

 

[ggies07]

What's really mind blowing is all the new Model 3 threads that the newbies keep making. Like they haven't read or kept up with the company over the past year or two. Do we need a thread for every little topic on the damn car? So I don't mind the info being in this thread. It's a one-stop shop for info that will effect the price today and tomorrow.

 

[Sancho]

Not only does the price of oil have little to no impact on the demand for Tesla cars, but the reverse may be true: March 31 may be the day the general public begins to recognize the imminence of Peak Oil. Not from the supply side, but from the demand side!

 

[Fallenone]

What's really mind blowing is all the new Model 3 threads that the newbies keep making. Like they haven't read or kept up with the company over the past year or two. Do we need a thread for every little topic on the damn car? So I don't mind the info being in this thread. It's a one-stop shop for info that will effect the price today and tomorrow.

They are newbies, by definition they wouldn't have kept up with the company for the past year or too. The Model 3 forum is serving its purpose of educating newbies and I think it's a good thing.