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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I agree. The majority of people trading options lose. The best way to invest in the company is to buy and hold the stock.

But, there are people who speculatively trade options successfully. It takes a ton of discipline. And you can not expect every trade to win.

People on the forums tend to post their winners only, and give other members the impression there is a money-tree in options trading. "Reach up and pluck a 400% gain!" And, sometimes it IS that easy during a massive bull run. But usually it involves a ton of hard work, discipline, and failed trades that need to be abandoned quickly.

But, it can be done.


Or more likely:
As a shorter term trader of options, you can allow smaller term waves to allow you to LOSE MONEY on pull backs as well as upswings while still holding the stock.

Buyers of options are more often retail speculators, and they generally lose. The erosion of the time premium of an option is the big headwind, not to mention emotions. Writers (original sellers) of options are more often the market makers or hedge funds, and they generally win.

I continually get private messages from TMC forum members crying about losses from options trading. My usual suggestion to them is to hold the stock for the long term, or stay away from it and options. Hence the sentence I included in my post made yesterday.

To some degree I agree with your full reply to a small portion of my post of yesterday. Thank you for causing me to reflect upon my words. I should not have used the word TRADE in a sentence within that post. I should have phased it, "That's another reminder to OWN the stock and not the WEEKLY options."
 
i
I agree. The majority of people trading options lose. The best way to invest in the company is to buy and hold the stock.

But, there are people who speculatively trade options successfully. It takes a ton of discipline. And you can not expect every trade to win.

People on the forums tend to post their winners only, and give other members the impression there is a money-tree in options trading. "Reach up and pluck a 400% gain!" And, sometimes it IS that easy during a massive bull run. But usually it involves a ton of hard work, discipline, and failed trades that need to be abandoned quickly.

But, it can be done.

There is a higher ℅ of members here who fess up about their bad trades vs other forums (~0%).
 
The problem with option strategies is that they work great until they don't, and then you can lose all you've gained and then some. I've found a strategy that has worked well for the last year or so, more than making up for the losses I incurred before. I hope I've figured out how not to lose my gains again but I am prepared to be humbled.
 
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The bombastic and seemingly orchestrated manner in which Standpoint's Ronnie Moas regurgitated old FUD on CNBC, after ignoring TSLA for several years, makes one wonder if a large client (or several) who is heavily short TSLA insisted that Moas berate TSLA in a public forum, if their business relationship were to be maintained.

What disturbed me was the lack of incisive questions from the CNBC panel. They could have easily defeated Moas' thesis, especially the comparison between Tesla and Ford financials. For example, how many Ford sales will be lost to those signed up for the Model 3?
Also, the 2015 sales figures for luxury sedans, where Tesla is growing 50 % at the expense of all of the other brands.

Of course, unlike Ford, GM, etc., Tesla is not paying CNBC salaries.
 
The problem with option strategies is that they work great until they don't, and then you can lose all you've gained and then some. I've found a strategy that has worked well for the last year or so, more than making up for the losses I incurred before. I hope I've figured out how not to lose my gains again but I am prepared to be humbled.
In my case playing with options is serving the job of keeping me busy without touching my long position on shares.
I am fully behind Elon, Tesla and the mission, and have no doubt that long is the way to go to be rewarded.
However, with such a high beta stock like TSLA is, many (myself included) are finding the irrestible need to act to try and maximize return.
So I decided to split my strong long position on the stock from a small pot of playmoney for short term trading.
Funny enough, I am not expecting big returns (although I can't complain on the result so far), but I am finding it an effective system to keep myself away from trading the stock.
With the boring AAPL I don't need this trick...
 
I
I agree. The majority of people trading options lose. The best way to invest in the company is to buy and hold the stock.

But, there are people who speculatively trade options successfully. It takes a ton of discipline. And you can not expect every trade to win.

People on the forums tend to post their winners only, and give other members the impression there is a money-tree in options trading. "Reach up and pluck a 400% gain!" And, sometimes it IS that easy during a massive bull run. But usually it involves a ton of hard work, discipline, and failed trades that need to be abandoned quickly.

But, it can be done.

^^Totally agree^^. Part of the reason to participate in the ST thread is to pick up and hopefully supply little nuggets of information that might be useful in trading options.

EX: When the first and second 'fire' videos hit UTube a couple years back it was reported here before the main street saw it.....get out or 'puts'
When Jerome mentioned 'reckless growth and a deliver beat' at the NAIAS we all saw it/reported it here.....buy stock/calls
Most recently, when we all were reporting here the long lines for '3' reservations...buy stock/calls.

I would personally like to thank the people on this forum that supply information as our 'collective' knowledge can result in some nice trading profits

Having said that: Options are not for everyone and, IMO, should be used only with money one can afford to lose. Buy and hold if you are a long term investor may result in smaller gains than 'trading' but also will keep you from having big losses.
 
What disturbed me was the lack of incisive questions from the CNBC panel. They could have easily defeated Moas' thesis, especially the comparison between Tesla and Ford financials. For example, how many Ford sales will be lost to those signed up for the Model 3?
Also, the 2015 sales figures for luxury sedans, where Tesla is growing 50 % at the expense of all of the other brands.

Of course, unlike Ford, GM, etc., Tesla is not paying CNBC salaries.

In fairness, in the discussion that followed (not included in the video that CNBC put on their website) one of the traders, Josh Brown, did make the case that no investor in TSLA values it by comparing it to other car makers, but that they look instead at the high rate of revenue growth, which is projected to continue. He then made the parallel with Amazon, saying that at the start nobody believed they would get to their current position of dominance, but they did (although it took 20 years). The expression he used was "in this market, people are willing to overpay for growth". Whether you agree with that expression or not (I don't, not in TSLA's case), he did point out that Moas' thesis based on comparing TSLA with GM and Ford (not to mention Bed Bath and Beyond?!) is missing the point.
 
Anyone have an opinion on whether the Model 3 will have sufficient autopilot hardware for fully autonomous driving?

Back on topic - I'm hoping for a short term surge in share price as my new job may force me to liquidate my position (no single stocks allowed) :(
 
Anyone have an opinion on whether the Model 3 will have sufficient autopilot hardware for fully autonomous driving?

Back on topic - I'm hoping for a short term surge in share price as my new job may force me to liquidate my position (no single stocks allowed) :(

I don't remember if they have formally announced it but I think that is the aim, I wonder if it may even come standard as a safety feature. The 3 release date coincides pretty much with estimates of when they would have the full autopilot ready. Maybe that will be part 2 of big reveal.
 
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What disturbed me was the lack of incisive questions from the CNBC panel. They could have easily defeated Moas' thesis, especially the comparison between Tesla and Ford financials. For example, how many Ford sales will be lost to those signed up for the Model 3?
Also, the 2015 sales figures for luxury sedans, where Tesla is growing 50 % at the expense of all of the other brands.

Of course, unlike Ford, GM, etc., Tesla is not paying CNBC salaries.

A CNBC graphic claimed that Moas is the #1 ranked analyst by TipRanks. Actually, they currently rank him #65. Another graphic indicated that neither Moas nor his firm are shareholders in Tesla. I'll have to give the CNBC anchor a bit of credit for then asking if Standpoint is short Tesla stock (not seen in the video replay.) Moas replied with condescending dismissiveness that his firm is neither long nor short the stock, because it is only in the business of providing advice to clients. That seemed to cow the anchor. When I was the host of a financial TV show, I would have followed up by asking if Standpoint's clients were short the Tesla stock, either before or after Standpoint recently rated it a sell.
 
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I have only made money on options twice: early 2013 and early 2016. In between I have generally bled slowly as Curt says.
It's the weekend, and maybe this can be of help to some of our new posters, so here is my testimony.

In 2013, I had outsized returns with stock only. I went all-in in the 30s, and rode it all the way up to 190. Then TSLA entered a painful decline, triggered when a couple of car batteries experienced exothermic reactions after encountering road debris. I eventually succumbed to abject fear, and managed to sell everything at the exact bottom around 120, realizing a 40% loss.

I made it all back in spades in the next spring, on the back of the run to 265 with an extremely aggressive option play. I promptly concluded I was a genius, and proceeded on what I thought was a certain path to another 10x by trading only options. That plan, which was beautiful and perfect, led to something closer to 3x, but in the other direction. I bled even more over the next year, still trying to recapture the magic of option fireworks, like a crack addict chasing the high of their first hit (and with equally beneficial results).

Then it dawned on me that when experienced traders say "don't play with options if you don't know what you're doing", they say it for a reason. That reason was staring me right in the face from the bottom line of my brokerage account.

For the next 6 months or so, I slowly learned how to be more conservative, less emotional, and most importantly to stop indulging in the kind of day-dreaming that protagonists of all lottery ads in history like to engage in. Visualizing 3x, 5x, 10x gains when buying calls blinds you to the downside, and is the addiction mechanism underlying destructive gambling behaviour. It distorts thinking beyond the capability of amateurs (like me) to detect it. The question is, when those calls expire out of the money, what do you learn from it? How do you learn? And how much will you have to lose to start to really learn? The kind of self-examination you need to do to improve your performance is insanely hard to do, doubly so when you do it alone, with nobody helping you as a non-involved, objective evaluator. There is a reason why Bobby Axelrod (a high-powered hedge manager in the TV series Billions, for those who don't know) employs the services of a top-notch psychologist for himself and his trading team.

Options are powerful weapons. In the hands of the inexperienced trader, they are all-but-certain to turn into weapons of mass destruction of capital. For the reasons illustrated above, the worst thing that can happen to such a trader is to make a lot of money with the first few option trades.

One can detect the heartbreak in some of the posts in this thread when TSLA loses 3% in one day (which is very common with TSLA). "It's at 255 now. Scratch that, it's 250. Will it go back up today? By next week? Should I sell now? Or should I buy more? What do you guys think?"

If you're asking those question in that manner, you are in way over your head. I've said it before, but it's worth repeating: if trading stocks is like ballroom dancing, option trading is like mixed martial arts. If you are a beginner, you should stay out of the octagon. If you get in anyway, expect to bleed and be knocked out on a regular basis. Pain can be a tremendous teacher if you can take it, but 9 times out of 10 you're just going to get killed.
 
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Like others have stated above, for those who are new here, do not just jump into options thinking you know everything or know where things are headed. Options is very similar to gambling: Those who know how to game the system, will win. Those who are in to just try and earn money, most likely lose. I've been burned many times because I had no game plan at the time. I've lost more in options than gaining in options. That's why I would never throw in a large amount of money at options going forward. Consider options as you either lose it all or gain some in a general sense.

As for Monday's opening, I think it'll probably be a slight positive day, excluding any global turmoil. But if there are global issues, TSLA would most likely go down with it. The SpaceX success may move TSLA up for short term. As for the Model X configuration, it's nothing that serious to move TSLA up. Trading sideways is what I think for this upcoming new week unless more decent news come out regarding Model 3.
 
Because Monday looks like it could be a day for returning to the green, the shorts might try an attack at the very beginning of trading or after the amateur hour is up. They like to induce some fear right when sentiment is turning upward. That said, if longs turn a short attack into a positive day with a reversal, that would be a very bullish signal to me.
 
As we're in a slow weekend I thought I could share this small story:

I was talking to this guy from MIT CSAIL and he said he just got off an interview with Apple. They made him sign a NDA, but that was not really necessary as they didn't share any information about what project they were hiring for. They just called it a "secret project", but it was obvious that they are working on autonomous driving. This other guy also at MIT CSAIL who was listening just laughed and said they had all been approached by Apple.
 
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Because Monday looks like it could be a day for returning to the green, the shorts might try an attack at the very beginning of trading or after the amateur hour is up. They like to induce some fear right when sentiment is turning upward. That said, if longs turn a short attack into a positive day with a reversal, that would be a very bullish signal to me.
So you're predicting some green?
 
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As we're in a slow weekend I thought I could share this small story:

I was talking to this guy from MIT CSAIL and he said he just got off an interview with Apple. They made him sign a NDA, but that was not really necessary as they didn't share any information about what project they were hiring for. They just called it a "secret project", but it was obvious that they are working on autonomous driving. This other guy also at MIT CSAIL who was listening just laughed and said they had all been approached by Apple.

Considering that Apple, Google,Tesla, and maybe Faraday Future are all in the car game now, it will be interesting to see which incumbents are still major players in 10 years. Tesla is certainly setting the bar higher in pretty much every way now, but that doesn't necessarily mean the veterans can't follow suit and do okay.

On a more short-term note. With 2-3 weeks left before earnings fervor picks up, are there any known catalysts between now and then?
 
Much agreement with Curt, Rhino, AIMc and others above. From a somewhat experienced options player, Take F-Rhino story to heart please. Options require much more contextual decision making than even a single stock. Market rotations in and out of beta stocks, macro economics effects, and much more come into play, amplified many times.

As someone who has both made and lost a lot of money in options, I'm currently very conservative as the market has returned to something akin to fair value. I maintain TSLA core as all stock, then when it looks like the next months will produce gains, I will indulge in a VERY limited set of LEAPS that generally exceed the time I expect to hold the leverage by at least double. Then convert those into stock many months before expiration (others use DITM options to accomplish the same).

Anything else in today's invironment is pure Vegas game play IMO. If you want to gain some experience without losing your humanity, use a ridiculously low amount like 1 option and pretend you bought 100 contracts. Do the math when you lose it, and thanks those posters above for their willingness to share the truth instead of 'the hope'
 
With the boring AAPL I don't need this trick...

Yeah but AAPL wasn't always this boring. I remember when people thought I was nuts to be long Apple. That was before the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, ... I expect more from Elon and TM in the future. I look forward to TSLA being boring in 10 or 15 years.
 
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