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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Anyone know anything about the referral code that includes $1200 off a home charging system? Just came across someone who posted this on eBay. Brilliant idea by Tesla but a bit confusing. Isn't there already a $1200 tax rebate to install residential home charging systems?

I suppose this is an interesting piece that hasn't been heavily talked about. Every person who owns a Tesla, at least those in the US who has Solar Panels, should also have a Tesla home charging system including a Powerwall since it's basically free and probably increases the value of your house. (Analysts, are you listening?).

I think the incentive for battery storage only applies if the energy stored is generated by Solar Panels?

On an aside, anyone know what is happening on April 15th?
 
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Folks looking for a good squeeze should watch SolarCity this coming week. The share price has been climbing even as shares have become costly to borrow. Put/call parity is broken as April 22 ATM calls have IV at 0.75 and put IV at 1.20. So buyers are pushing up the price as desperate shorts are failing to suppress the price.

Get popcorn.


This would be most welcome as I do have some OTM 4/15 calls....put some butter on that corn.....
 
The "corner case" you describe in Georgetown is the norm on country lanes and old parts of town throughout Europe and I suspect in much of the world where I have not driven.

Yes absolutely, but it is even worse, I think.

In Britain, for example, you would expect Brits to park on some country lanes and many residential streets for lack of any alternative convenient off-road parking.

But amazingly, there are many Brits who have the attitude that simply because they have paid their annual road tax (not optional) they are entitled (if no adverse signage) to park in the slow lane on any road at any place they might like. And trust me, they do...even on the principal 'A' roads!

'A' roads are only one grade down from motorways (dual carriageways separated by a median strip).

For a human driver it is sometimes hard to distinguish quickly between a parked vehicle and a vehicle momentarily stopped in your lane. So think how much harder it will be for an AP system to distinguish quickly and accurately.
 
autopilot: sure. But true driverless is harder than 2 years R&D in my opinion. For example, the streets in Georgetown (in Washington DC) are too narrow for the parked cars and two lanes. As a result, there is this odd dance that occurs when you face another car from the opposite direction. You drive part way and jump in front of a driveway so that you can get out of the way of the center of the road and let the other car pass.

My point is that there are a massive number of weird corner cases, so there will have to be a lot of learning before true driverless autonomy. It is more of a spectrum where autopilot will work in a larger number of scenarios.

Yeah my understanding is that when they talk about autopilot that means they are pretty much self-driving on the freeways and then maybe on major thoroughfares and then eventually into those weird little Georgetown type streets. But who knows, a year or two is a pretty long time in the world of software development. I'm hoping they get it going, my Grandpa would love having the independence to "drive" again since he had to stop several years ago.I'm not super into in cars or driving but for him it would be huge, he comes from that generation that has a real love of cars and driving. If I ever end up getting a Tesla I'm looking forward to letting him try not to wreck it in an empty parking lot or something, but if he could cruise on the freeway again (with autopilot) that would really be big.

With regard toward short-term prices, I think sometime in the next year they'll have an update and announcement on the progress they are making, and my understanding is that Tesla is at or near the front of the pack in terms of practical development, the approach seems to be to go after the big fruit first (highway driving) and then iterate into the harder stuff to pick, and eventually I'm sure they'll figure out something with those cool old European streets.
 
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Yes absolutely, but it is even worse, I think.

In Britain, for example, you would expect Brits to park on some country lanes and many residential streets for lack of any alternative convenient off-road parking.

But amazingly, there are many Brits who have the attitude that simply because they have paid their annual road tax (not optional) they are entitled (if no adverse signage) to park in the slow lane on any road at any place they might like. And trust me, they do...even on the principal 'A' roads!

'A' roads are only one grade down from motorways (dual carriageways separated by a median strip).

For a human driver it is sometimes hard to distinguish quickly between a parked vehicle and a vehicle momentarily stopped in your lane. So think how much harder it will be for an AP system to distinguish quickly and accurately.

If a human can do it, AP can also do it. Sensors can probably do a better job at distinguishing between the two and by default is probably set to always err on the side of caution when those types of situations occur. The AP can do a better job mastering and responding to unpredictable "regional maneuvers".

In far too many places, the laws pertaining to automobiles are "selectively enforced", vary significantly by region, or are not always possible to follow as defined. AP is almost certainly programmed to always act on the side of caution when faced with these types of situations. At least if AP is involved, a very clear record of what happened, should an accident occur, will be available.
 
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Folks looking for a good squeeze should watch SolarCity this coming week. The share price has been climbing even as shares have become costly to borrow. Put/call parity is broken as April 22 ATM calls have IV at 0.75 and put IV at 1.20. So buyers are pushing up the price as desperate shorts are failing to suppress the price.

Seems like there has already been a slow squeeze considering it's up almost 100% in a few weeks, will be interesting to see what happens next for sure.
 
If a human can do it, AP can also do it. Sensors can probably do a better job at distinguishing between the two and by default is probably set to always err on the side of caution when those types of situations occur. The AP can do a better job mastering and responding to unpredictable "regional maneuvers".

Yeah I think you are right.

I was just wanting to emphasise how much learning there was still to do in places less adapted to cars than the US.

I will be very excited to see how quickly Tesla's superior OTA fleet learning approach deals with all these corner cases and the huge regional differences in driving styles (pushiness) between Northern and Southern Europe, for instance.
 
Seems like there has already been a slow squeeze considering it's up almost 100% in a few weeks, will be interesting to see what happens next for sure.
Folks looking for a good squeeze should watch SolarCity this coming week. The share price has been climbing even as shares have become costly to borrow. Put/call parity is broken as April 22 ATM calls have IV at 0.75 and put IV at 1.20. So buyers are pushing up the price as desperate shorts are failing to suppress the price.

Get popcorn.


Completely agree. SolarCity has been bogged down below major technical resistance due to factors that have nothing to do with SolarCity. (Sunedison, low oil prices, the situation in Nevada, and a lack of analysts paying attention to SolarCity.) Not to mention Chanos's confusing and inaccurate view of SolarCity.

The next few weeks will be interresting.
 
Completely agree. SolarCity has been bogged down below major technical resistance due to factors that have nothing to do with SolarCity. (Sunedison, low oil prices, the situation in Nevada, and a lack of analysts paying attention to SolarCity.) Not to mention Chanos's confusing and inaccurate view of SolarCity.

The next few weeks will be interresting.
Wonder when they post the next short interest numbers?
 
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Normally we would expect a slow drift-down in SP for TSLA as there's a lack of news, but I am not so sure this time around. Musk may want the SP up in order to do a capital raise, and all it takes is a couple positive tweats and the stock can be heading upwards. We still have the battle between shorts and longs, but we have the added factor of Model 3 reservation holders becoming shareholders, which puts upward pressure on the stock. I suspect Q1 ER will be similar to Q4 ER in that the numbers won't be thrilling but the forward guidance will be.

I sold my June and Sept calls before the Wednesday M3 delivery numbers were released, but I've hung onto my leaps.
 
I'm feeling more confident by the week the VW lawsuit and the Exxon Mobile Rico investigation will have a similar outcome to what happened with "Big Tobacco". VW will be forced to invest a very large amount ($20-40 billion?) in an American Electric Vehicles manufacturer, of which Tesla is the only one, or create a $40-$60 billion dollar fund, that will be used to subsidize the production of clean energy projects (Electric Vehicles, Grid Storage, Clean Energy generation).

The only way for VW to pay for damaging the environment in a way that will make those harmed (everyone in the world) whole would be to pay to accelerate the advent of Electric Vehicles, and 100% clean energy generation.

This doesn't include the damages VW will have to pay for violating a number of laws, lying to regulators, defrauding their dealers and owners of their vehicles, among other things. These are only the damages VW will face in the USA. Who knows what VW will need to pay to every country in the world. I don't see a scenario that ends well for VW, unless there is a "global settlement" of sorts (assuming such a thing is possible?).

The situation with Exxon is far more complicated, and may take years to resolve. There are many reasons Saudi Arabia is preparing to make what could be one of the world’s biggest investments in solar power. I strongly recommend everyone read the article from 'The Atlantic'.

Why the Saudis Are Going Solar

Speaking of massive investments in Solar, I've always wondered what happened to Masdar City. Anyone know anything about any recent developments? Has anyone on here worked there?

I strongly recommend everyone read these two reports:
Global Trends In Renewable Energy Investment 2016
RE100: China's Fast Track To a Renewable Future



 
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I'm feeling more confident by the week the VW lawsuit and the Exxon Mobile Rico investigation will have a similar outcome to what happened with "Big Tobacco". VW will be forced to invest a very large amount ($20-40 billion?) in an American Electric Vehicles manufacturer, of which Tesla is the only one, or create a $40-$60 billion dollar fund, that will be used to subsidize the production of clean energy projects (Electric Vehicles, Grid Storage, Clean Energy generation).

The only way for VW to pay for damaging the environment in a way that will make those harmed (everyone in the world) whole would be to pay to accelerate the advent of Electric Vehicles, and 100% clean energy generation.

This doesn't include the damages VW will have to pay for violating a number of laws, lying to regulators, defrauding their dealers and owners of their vehicles, among other things. These are only the damages VW will face in the USA. Who knows what VW will need to pay to every country in the world. I don't see a scenario that ends well for VW, unless there is a "global settlement" of sorts (assuming such a thing is possible?).

The situation with Exxon is far more complicated, and may take years to resolve. There are many reasons Saudi Arabia is preparing to make what could be one of the world’s biggest investments in solar power. I strongly recommend everyone read the article from 'The Atlantic'.

Why the Saudis Are Going Solar

Speaking of massive investments in Solar, I've always wondered what happened to Masdar City. Anyone know anything about any recent developments? Has anyone on here worked there?

I strongly recommend everyone read these two reports:
Global Trends In Renewable Energy Investment 2016
RE100: China's Fast Track To a Renewable Future



From the report "Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016":

How EVs are charged.jpg


For this reason I see Elon Musk and Tesla Motors adding more and more color to their "Master Plan" and touting the importance of SolarCity and it's interrelationship with Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy.
 
I just did a comparison of search interest for the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 over the past 12 months.

In addition to interest for the Chevy Bolt being very low, almost all searches over the past 12 months for the Chevy Bolt came from the USA and Canada. The largest number of searches in the USA for the Chevy Bolt were from Detroit.

By comparison, interest for the Tesla Model 3 was strong in MANY countries. :D
 
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Normally we would expect a slow drift-down in SP for TSLA as there's a lack of news, but I am not so sure this time around. Musk may want the SP up in order to do a capital raise, and all it takes is a couple positive tweats and the stock can be heading upwards. We still have the battle between shorts and longs, but we have the added factor of Model 3 reservation holders becoming shareholders, which puts upward pressure on the stock. I suspect Q1 ER will be similar to Q4 ER in that the numbers won't be thrilling but the forward guidance will be.

I sold my June and Sept calls before the Wednesday M3 delivery numbers were released, but I've hung onto my leaps.
I hope that's the case. Come on, Elon :)
 
OK, since it is the weekend, this is off-topic but I gotta' tell you how much fun I had Saturday. I had to sign an NDA so I can't tell you what I had to say. But a certain German automotive manufacturer sent a marketing crew of 5 who interviewed me, camera, recording and all. They wanted to know all they could about who I am, what it is to be a Tesla owner, what I would look for in a car, and as I was allowed to say anything I wanted for 1.5 hours, well......I enjoyed looking into the camera with my thoughts about what other manufacturers than Teslas are doing wrong, and about where I think the auto industry is going. And guess what, they paid me very well for my time! This video goes all the way to Germany for those folks to ponder over. What a soap box indeed!
 
OK, since it is the weekend, this is off-topic but I gotta' tell you how much fun I had Saturday. I had to sign an NDA so I can't tell you what I had to say. But a certain German automotive manufacturer sent a marketing crew of 5 who interviewed me, camera, recording and all. They wanted to know all they could about who I am, what it is to be a Tesla owner, what I would look for in a car, and as I was allowed to say anything I wanted for 1.5 hours, well......I enjoyed looking into the camera with my thoughts about what other manufacturers than Teslas are doing wrong, and about where I think the auto industry is going. And guess what, they paid me very well for my time! This video goes all the way to Germany for those folks to ponder over. What a soap box indeed!
I applaud this certain German manufacturer for deciding to get more information from the former (I gather) customer regarding his EV ownership experience, but on another hand - come on, a lot of the things they had to hear from you, I am sure, any reasonable observer that did not have his head buried so firmly in the sand should have been able to discern without a lot of marketing research, and quite some time ago.

With the traditional manufacturers in general moving much slower than Tesla, I just can't see them catching up any time soon.
 
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