Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[larmor]

OK, since it is the weekend, this is off-topic but I gotta' tell you how much fun I had Saturday. I had to sign an NDA so I can't tell you what I had to say. But a certain German automotive manufacturer sent a marketing crew of 5 who interviewed me, camera, recording and all. They wanted to know all they could about who I am, what it is to be a Tesla owner, what I would look for in a car, and as I was allowed to say anything I wanted for 1.5 hours, well......I enjoyed looking into the camera with my thoughts about what other manufacturers than Teslas are doing wrong, and about where I think the auto industry is going. And guess what, they paid me very well for my time! This video goes all the way to Germany for those folks to ponder over. What a soap box indeed!

They should have just sent a carrier pigeon...

 

[MartinAustin]

Up 1.3% in pre-market trading... I hope this signals a bit of a recovery from Thursday / Friday's losses

 

[TSLAopt]

Up 1.3% in pre-market trading... I hope this signals a bit of a recovery from Thursday / Friday's losses

Yes, and because its so quiet on here in our "Bulls Den" (although there are a few Bears who visit once in a while too) that often is a good leading indicator I've noticed over the years as well. We shall see though as one big institutional short or long could certainly influence the price on any given day as well

 

[tanner]

Yes, and because its so quiet on here in our "Bulls Den" (although there are a few Bears who visit once in a while too) that often is a good leading indicator I've noticed over the years as well. We shall see though as one big institutional short or long could certainly influence the price on any given day as well

Or one Elon w/ several tweets

 

[tanner]

Okay, amid all the rumors of an S refresh, it's now suggested we'll get that 100kWh battery that was uncovered in code a while back and the air filter of the X: Tesla’s Model S refresh expected to include Bioweapons grade filter, 100kWh, X-like front end, more

How do you guys think such a refresh would impact the SP?

 

[uselesslogin]

TheStreet says there will be a midday conference call. Expecting most the rumors to be confirmed tbh.
Stock futures rise as Wall Street gears up for earnings season
Now, is it 0-60 in 2.4 seconds? That I think is the least likely rumor but I'm looking forward to it. Please if anyone gets confirmation or time of the call let us know.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Honestly I did not expect this to happen that quick:
1. Tesla outsells German brands in USA
2. Tesla outsells German brands in Europe

 

[cgiGuy]

Up 1.3% in pre-market trading... I hope this signals a bit of a recovery from Thursday / Friday's losses

You jinxed it!

 

[tanner]

Honestly I did not expect this to happen that quick:
1. Tesla outsells German brands in USA
2. Tesla outsells German brands in Europe

Yes, this seems good: Tesla Model S deliveries are up 35% in Germany – record deliveries in March [Chart]

 

[tanner]

TheStreet says there will be a midday conference call. Expecting most the rumors to be confirmed tbh.
Stock futures rise as Wall Street gears up for earnings season
Now, is it 0-60 in 2.4 seconds? That I think is the least likely rumor but I'm looking forward to it. Please if anyone gets confirmation or time of the call let us know.

That's unusual for Tesla, isn't it?

 

[uselesslogin]

That's unusual for Tesla, isn't it?

I don't think it is unusual for product announcements. I thought the Ludicrous update was midday and other things I can't remember.

 

[tanner]

I don't think it is unusual for product announcements. I thought the Ludicrous update was midday and other things I can't remember.

Ah, interesting - I think I missed when that was announced. Thanks!

 

[austinEV]

I don't think it is unusual for product announcements. I thought the Ludicrous update was midday and other things I can't remember.

Hmmm, what could be a conf call? I don't see it being the S refresh, that should be an event to unveil the new look and features. It could be just a pricing change, but if its a conf call they will definately be asked about a refresh... so we may get dates on that.

OTH, it could be a pre-warn about bad earnings?

 

[Curt Renz]

I don't think it is unusual for product announcements. I thought the Ludicrous update was midday and other things I can't remember.

Today it may be about Model S renovations and price changes. Although TheStreet seems to be the only source referring to a conference call today. If anybody learns more, please chime in.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Today it may be about Model S renovations and price changes. Although TheStreet seems to be the only source referring to a conference call today. If anybody learns more, please chime in.

Based on everything that's been posted to TMC over the past few weeks, I think a few things could be discussed:

• Changes to the Model S exterior to bring it more in line with Model X and Model 3 as far as the nosecone.
• Official word on the 100 kWh battery. The graphics for the P100D were discovered by a TMC member and posted to Twitter some time ago.
• Model X design studio is supposed to open to the general public today.

 

[stef]

Based on everything that's been posted to TMC over the past few weeks, I think a few things could be discussed:

• Changes to the Model S exterior to bring it more in line with Model X and Model 3 as far as the nosecone.
• Official word on the 100 kWh battery. The graphics for the P100D were discovered by a TMC member and posted to Twitter some time ago.
• Model X design studio is supposed to open to the general public today.

What I find interesting is they are referring to an update on the company, not on the products.
Could they gave any material new information related to M 3 ramp?

 

[austinEV]

Based on everything that's been posted to TMC over the past few weeks, I think a few things could be discussed:

• Changes to the Model S exterior to bring it more in line with Model X and Model 3 as far as the nosecone.
• Official word on the 100 kWh battery. The graphics for the P100D were discovered by a TMC member and posted to Twitter some time ago.
• Model X design studio is supposed to open to the general public today.

The model X item satisfies the "most boring theory" criteria, but my goodness that is too boring. Why not just go live? Why would the press care?

The S changes are too interesting for a conf call (should be an event) and the X is too boring...

I have this ridiculously complicated outlook:

1 week: bullish. I think everything points to an S refresh, new look with 100kWh and new prices
6 weeks: Bearish. I think Q1 results will be awful, but outlook will be ok. But we know all the rosiness now.
17 weeks: bullish. Q2 results will be off the hook by design.

I was looking for the stock to retreat to the 20 day (236) or the 240 support level but now I think this news will interrupt that little downtrend.

Edit: Fixed pricing mistake

 

[Curt Renz]

On Thursday evening Tesla thanked me by email for reserving a Model 3 and added, "We're currently increasing our production plans to minimize the wait for your Model 3."

That may be a hint that a favorable capital raise could be announced today.

 

[tanner]

Well, I for one hope they announce the S updates. I've been waiting so long to get a new one

 

[tinm]

This morning I look at TSLA and it's 245. Ugh. So I tune out. I just glanced at it again and it's $256.12..... buh?

Is the conf call good news? Is the Tesla-outselling-lux-cars the factor? What happened?