Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

A nice synopsis of the history of the German car makers thoughts on TM/EM With Tesla 3, German automakers are now seeing Tesla as a threat

 

[vgrinshpun]

A nice synopsis of the history of the German car makers thoughts on TM/EM With Tesla 3, German automakers are now seeing Tesla as a threat

They are still in denial about Tesla being capable to challenge them, even after Tesla beat them in two major markets, including NA and (western) Europe. It used to be a smugly denial, and now it is weary denial, but it is denial nevertheless. I would think that Daimler chairman should know better:

Daimler Chairman Zetsche insisted his company and its German rivals had not missed the boat. He pointed out that Tesla has not earned any money and that its loss-making business was not something Daimler shareholders would accept.

I bet if he would strip all revenue for Daimler, except that for MB S Class and add R&D and operating expenses to develop one of their SUV's and a compact car platform, worldwide network of Superchargers and Energy Storage business, Daimler would thoroughly qualify for his definition of a loss-making business as well. This is not very inspiring. It is, in fact, just pathetic.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is funny - Model X supercharging fail by Audi personnel.

 

[Drax7]

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, then you win

 

[jhm]

They are still in denial about Tesla being capable to challenge them, even after Tesla beat them in two major markets, including NA and (western) Europe. It used to be a smugly denial, and now it is weary denial, but it is denial nevertheless. I would think that Daimler chairman should know better:



I bet if he would strip all revenue for Daimler, except that for MB S Class and add R&D and operating expenses to develop one of their SUV's and a compact car platform, worldwide network of Superchargers and Energy Storage business, Daimler would thoroughly qualify for his definition of a loss-making business as well. This is not very inspiring. It is, in fact, just pathetic.

The unwillingness of Daimler shareholders, real or projected, to burn cash to grow into electrics is exactly what will resign incumbents to slow but certain death.

So the progression seems to be:

1. Smug denial
2. Weary denial
3. Futility and helplessness
4. Resignation
5. Death

Fiat Chrysler seems to be jumping right ahead to the resignation stage. This may give them the edge over incumbents. If you know you're going out of business, then you can order your affairs so as to maximize profit and dividends to shareholders.

 

[jeewee3000]

We should see similar action at market opening as yesterday: short upwards burst during amateur hour.

Reasoning: up pre-market. Indices are up, showing good signs for American markets today. Oil is up.

I expect surge to 257-258, and without news it might settle down back to 254.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Insightful ones at JP Morgan Chase raised PT from $155 to $170, keeping Underweight rating

 

[Hogfighter]

If I had to choose between the TSLA knowledge bases of:

(a) Adam Jonas, Andrea James, Chip, and the rest of the analysts, or

(b) Johan, vgrinshpun, AIMc, Causelien, and the rest of the outstanding posters on this forum,

it's not even close. The analysts would be embarrassed at a roundtable with the heavyweights who lurk here.

 

[jhm]

I think that Elon actually was talking about BES requirements for replacing the currently generated electricity with renewable generation, so the 2B powerpacks (200TWh) do not include additional capacity required to cover electrification of transportation.

The reason that 200TWh capacity of PowerPacks is more than triple the 61TWh daily average demand is because the sizing calculation needs to account for both peak daily energy demand and design margin.

Then the ratio of 200TWh / 61TWh = 3.27 would cover design margin and ratio of peak to average daily energy demand.

Ok, this ratio is like saying that a family that uses about 31 kWh/d would need a whole 100kW Powerpack to back them up. That seems like a bit of overkill if the family is connected to some sort of microgrid with a mix of power sources available. A little wind complements solar throughout the day while a generator that runs on biodiesel provides some backup and seasonal support. I would think that 2 or 3 homes sharing such a mix of resources would only need to share one Powerpack between them. The need for 80 hours of battery back up seems to imply something like a solar only generation mix. But the only rationale I see for going to such a limited mix is if the the economics are so favorable for solar and batteries that it is cheaper to oversupply on these than to maintain a broad mix of renewables. Imagine a full 100 kWh Powerpack for less than $5000 and smaller than a microwave oven. Sure, we could get there, but it is the transitional economics along the way that really matter.

 

[BobSk]

This was actually very disappointing to watch. I like Andrea James and her questions and comments during quarterly analysis. However naively I assumed some analysts have special access to products. I always presumed that those analysts that cover a specific brand not only have objective number crunching data but a subjective intimacy of the product the company they cover makes as well. If needed phone up some peeps from this board and go for a few rides in the x ASAP. Would that not be essential before making an accurate prediction of the future of the product? Is not this the basis (loving their first drive in the model S) of a good chunk of people's investment thesis? Oh well...the more I know the more I realize analysts have a multitude of reasons for picking their seemingly random numbers, and to essentially be accurate is not on mists lists.

I suggest you go back to read all of Andrea's past reports regarding Tesla. She has been following Tesla for years. I think she is one of the most intelligent Tesla analyst. I don't judge her based on her price target. I look at the reasoning behind her predictions.

 

[Gerasimental]

This just looks like contagion from NFLX to me. FANG are all down while SPY is up. Thoughts?

 

[Subhuman]

Sorry a little off-topic but a good story about the Gigafactory on NPR. Figured most investors would have interest.

A Rare Look Inside The 'Gigafactory' Tesla Hopes Will Revolutionize Energy Use

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ok, this ratio is like saying that a family that uses about 31 kWh/d would need a whole 100kW Powerpack to back them up. That seems like a bit of overkill if the family is connected to some sort of microgrid with a mix of power sources available. A little wind complements solar throughout the day while a generator that runs on biodiesel provides some backup and seasonal support. I would think that 2 or 3 homes sharing such a mix of resources would only need to share one Powerpack between them. The need for 80 hours of battery back up seems to imply something like a solar only generation mix. But the only rationale I see for going to such a limited mix is if the the economics are so favorable for solar and batteries that it is cheaper to oversupply on these than to maintain a broad mix of renewables. Imagine a full 100 kWh Powerpack for less than $5000 and smaller than a microwave oven. Sure, we could get there, but it is the transitional economics along the way that really matter.

The distinction is between the average daily consumption and peak daily consumption. It is not sufficient to size the BES based on average daily energy consumption because it must cover the highest daily consumption possible. The difference between the average and peak could be 1:3 easily. For example looking at energy consumption for my house the daily average for the last year was 112.2kWh, while the highest daily consumption for 2015 was on Feb 15 - at 332kWh. So the ratio of peak to average was 332 / 112.2 = 2.96, which is very close to 3.27 factor that was apparently used by Elon. In case of my house, the difference between 3.27 and 2.96 is 1.11 which, if considered as a design margin is kind of low as far as my judgment is concerned...

 

[dmckinstry]

The Insightful ones at JP Morgan Chase raised PT from $155 to $170, keeping Underweight rating

What are they trying to predict? The 52 week low next February?

 

[Drax7]

Germans Calling tesla the pretender, I guess the space X falcon 9 landing also pretended to land on the
Of course I love you barge. German humility always amazes me.

 

[TSLAopt]

This just looks like contagion from NFLX to me. FANG are all down while SPY is up. Thoughts?

Anyone else see the report of Chris Porritt being lured away to Apple?

I remember it was kind of big news when Tesla lured him away from Aston Martin a few years back.

 

[Johan]

If Apple stole Franz I'd be worried.

 

[FredTMC]

If Apple stole Franz I'd be worried.

I gotta believe he's way too loaded up with unvested options. Plus, I think he's emotionally tied to tesla.

 

[Johan]

I gotta believe he's way too loaded up with unvested options. Plus, I think he's emotionally tied to tesla.

And as a car designer I guess the ultimate kick is seeing hundreds of thousands of your cars on the road and not just concept scetches.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Anyone else see the report of Chris Porritt being lured away to Apple?

I remember it was kind of big news when Tesla lured him away from Aston Martin a few years back.

Yea, but according to Electrek it was not a direct transition:

Giving some weight to Musk’s half-jokingly ‘Tesla Graveyard’ claim, we can confirm that Porritt didn’t make a direct transition from Tesla to Apple, but there was a few months between him leaving the electric automaker and joining the Cupertino company.