Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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For 2016 I am looking for TSLA to break $325 by Dec 31st.

Positive catalysts:
1. Model X ramp, reviews and orders
2. Model 3 reveal - not too crazy to build, but class leading specs
3. Gigafactory coming on line to show visibility to support Model 3 launch & decline in battery costs
4. Model S continued orders > 35,000 / year or any sort of refresh to show that S + X can support ~100,000 / year in demand
5. Additional autonomous upgrades/ updates to show Tesla leadership
6. China uptake of Model X

To me the theme of the positive catalysts show that Tesla revenue can approach $10B before Model 3 launch and exceed $20B within two years of launch. At 20% GM & continued technical leadership in 2016 the company will really be set a bigger move with Model 3 launch in late 2017. At this point I think many investors will see Tesla as more Apple than Mercedes in terms of business model.

Things that I don't think will have major negative impact in 2016
1. Any single incident of a failure like we are talking about now (although I will buy if stock drops more than 10%)
2. More announcements other car companies that they will be producing a electric car
3. Continued low oil prices
4. US presidential elections
5. Anything that Google does

 

[cgiGuy]

The norway incident will have no impact on the stock price, not even short term

I hope you're right, but unless Tesla comes out with some positive statement (i.e., car struck something 10 minutes earlier, faulty charger, etc.) I think we're going to see a reaction. Hopefully it will be short-lived and those looking for an opportunity to jump in will buy and help stabilize it.

 

[MitchJi]

Well, I think the reason has little to do with not wanting to miss self imposed deadlines and everything to do with needing the car to be ready when the gigafactory is ready. Idle gigafactory would be terrible for the business. There was no such forcing function on Model X.

An idle GF is an impossibility because TSLA could easily sell the entire output for stationary storage.

 

[Irishjugg]

Ooops. Good thing markets are closed today! Might be time to mitigate some of the damage, but I'm pretty certain TSLA will drop below $200 on Monday morning.

Imgur: The most awesome images on the Internet

Whoa, below 200? I certainly hope so (I'd be emptying out bank accounts to buy at 200 again... and I'm sure any losses our Jan 16 options holders experience would be made up for by their buying of say, 210, or 220 calls) but that would be a 16.7% drop on a single piece of negative news. I don't think we will see that magnitude of a drop. Maybe back to 225 at worst if I had to guess just based on how TSLA "feels" to me at this point.

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So, what have you successful guys done that's as epic as an investment to TSLA in your life?

I play poker semi-professionally (I just mean I also have a full time job so calling it professional seems disingenuous) and my lifetime ROI is over 80% with some YTD ROI's being in the 500%+ range.

Other than that, nada.

Working on starting in real estate investing though. (Anyone know of any great deals? )

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He thinks it's a cigarette or something? Yes, of course that's possible. This is all speculation right now. The gen1 HVJB is the likely culprit in my mind if it was a car fault. It's unlikely to be the charge port as it has thermal monitoring. It also seems to look like it originated in the back rather then the front.

What's the JB in HVJB there?

 

[jesselivenomore]

I hope you're right, but unless Tesla comes out with some positive statement (i.e., car struck something 10 minutes earlier, faulty charger, etc.) I think we're going to see a reaction. Hopefully it will be short-lived and those looking for an opportunity to jump in will buy and help stabilize it.

We now have proof (latest photo) that it was not battery related. That means if this is charging related it is a complete non event, since we have a sample size of millions of successful and safe supercharges. That means this is an isolated incident, or non tesla related.

 

[Krugerrand]

I fear you are looking through rose tinted glasses. This forum loves wild speculation. For example, just a few pages later several posters have no issue speculating on how this is a short who bought a Tesla to burn it down to cover their position. I mean, yeah it's 'possible' but so are the 'stories' you are referring to.

There's no reason to fear for me and I'd say the exact same thing (about making up stories) to everyone who speculates the event was some elaborate short/bear/oil industry event. And no this 'forum' does not love wild speculation. 'Some members' of this forum love wild speculation. You'll find those kinds of people (that love to wildly speculate for whatever reason/s) on all sorts of other forums around the Internet, so it's not unique to this forum.

 

[CatB]

Well, I agree with you both on speculation. I think it's worthwhile to speculate on possible causes and impacts on TSLA SP, and I don't think this 2-day-old thread has suffered from anyone intentionally going all sky-is-falling crazy trying to convince us all that their speculative bias is correct (and if I'm wrong, let's just chalk it up to the vagaries of words posted without full intonation or understanding of individual senses of humor or dialects or whatever - benefit of the doubt is a good thing).

So, thanks to all here (and on the other thread) for collaborating on netting out the options. Hopefully we'll know more tomorrow. Great news is that nobody was hurt (unlike the Norfolk VA SC accident - RIP to that poor electrician and prayers for his family and loved ones, that was just awful!). And yeah, I'm going to look for some spare cash to put in a hail-Mary buy-low order, just in case stupid market or bots over-react and provide me with a sale price.

 

[Johan]

Whoa, below 200? I certainly hope so (I'd be emptying out bank accounts to buy at 200 again... and I'm sure any losses our Jan 16 options holders experience would be made up for by their buying of say, 210, or 220 calls) but that would be a 16.7% drop on a single piece of negative news. I don't think we will see that magnitude of a drop. Maybe back to 225 at worst if I had to guess just based on how TSLA "feels" to me at this point.

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I play poker semi-professionally (I just mean I also have a full time job so calling it professional seems disingenuous) and my lifetime ROI is over 80% with some YTD ROI's being in the 500%+ range.

Other than that, nada.

Working on starting in real estate investing though. (Anyone know of any great deals? )

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What's the JB in HVJB there?

JB=junction box

As to my post (which was swiftly shot down by Krugerrand, but apparently the forum seemed to disagree with her views seeing as there's been plenty of speculation here in the short term TSLA thread): I said IF the fire is caused by supercharging then yes, I stand by my $200 guess. What will be interesting is if there is no official mention at all as to the fire or the cause of it before market open on Monday. In that case your guess is as good as mine, but if the price moves very little in such a scenario I'm pretty sure we'll see increased short interest again (as well as skewed put/call pricing toward expensive puts).

 

[Causalien]

Whoa, below 200? I certainly hope so (I'd be emptying out bank accounts to buy at 200 again... and I'm sure any losses our Jan 16 options holders experience would be made up for by their buying of say, 210, or 220 calls) but that would be a 16.7% drop on a single piece of negative news. I don't think we will see that magnitude of a drop. Maybe back to 225 at worst if I had to guess just based on how TSLA "feels" to me at this point.

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I play poker semi-professionally (I just mean I also have a full time job so calling it professional seems disingenuous) and my lifetime ROI is over 80% with some YTD ROI's being in the 500%+ range.

Other than that, nada.

Working on starting in real estate investing though. (Anyone know of any great deals? )

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What's the JB in HVJB there?

Poker feels too similar to investing. My last RE bet was Vancouver and it already paid off. I was thinking of Berlin and Leipzig next in Germany. Sadly Berlin already shot up in the 3 years I was travelling.


So for th charger gate. I am guessing $5000 per car at ~100k car= 500mil impact. Which, at most, should be 1.6% if market cap.

 

[Johan]

Poker feels too similar to investing. My last RE bet was Vancouver and it already paid off. I was thinking of Berlin and Leipzig next in Germany. Sadly Berlin already shot up in the 3 years I was travelling.


So for th charger gate. I am guessing $5000 per car at ~100k car= 500mil impact. Which, at most, should be 1.6% if market cap.

... But you and I know that in this worst case scenario no one is going to make such a balanced calculation but instead mr. Market will have a knee jerk reflex fiesta and scalp 15-20% of the market cap before coming to its senses.

With regard to Berlin for real estate I agree and it's not to late. I was there last autumn and I saw grandiose 200 sqm flats right on the Kurfürstendamm going for €400k. That's just crazy, like half or less of say Paris or London. And Germany is the real economic super power of Europe...

 

[AWDtsla]

Tesla can throw in enough hardware and push the product out the door but release full autonomous driving much more slowly using ota software updates. So I don't see a need to hold up model 3. Even if the hardware is not ready, I don't see the need to hold up model 3 release. Maybe I am missing the connection you are are making. Are you expecting a complete overhaul of the business model with model3? Maybe no car sales, only ride sales?

That's not what they did. They waited a year to accumulate enough precise mapping data using customer cars before enabling autopilot.


Just my opinion...

 

[wk057]

When they introduced the 2nd gen HVJB (along with the 2nd gen chargers), I think they added a temp sensor. All cars prior to this didn't have one. A loose connection in the 2nd gen box could build up heat that may be detected and the car shut down. So this makes it "safer", but up till now there hasn't been a single SpC f**e, so there is no reason to think that there is a problem with the 1st gen boxes that would merit a recall. If my guess is indeed found to be correct, a fix could be made in software to compare the voltage of the SpC to the voltage of the battery to look for high resistance anywhere in the chain. For all we know they might already do this.

Look at it this way, a D car may have safer handling, but that doesn't mean Tesla should recall all the non-D cars for safety, right?

You really think there is anything in the Gen1 HVJB (high voltage junction box) that could overheat and cause a fire? Without throwing any errors?

Having disassembled one, seems extremely unlikely to me. If the HVJB were going to go up in flames it would probably happen during hard acceleration where that junction from the battery and the inverter is under 3-4x the stress than the most powerful supercharging. Then again, the majority of the HVJB components are metal... not really much in there to go up in flames anyway. Are there any previous reports of failed HVJB components? I mean really the only things in there are metal bus bars, fuses, and a couple of contactors. The contactors are supervised by the fast charge module for safety, also, for stuck-open and stuck-closed conditions among other things.

If the 2/0 cabling somewhere got hot enough to melt the insulation, it would short with the second layer and cause a fault. All of the high voltage wiring in the Model S has two layers of insulation and a braided wire ring in between to sense insulation faults.

Sure, heat buildup would be at a junction somewhere, maybe a loose bolt or something? I just don't see it happening during a supercharge even at the ~330A mark. For comparison, there is ~330A flowing through that box any time you're using ~100kW of power while driving, which is pretty normal acceleration power. I'm reasonably certain that the software would have detected a loose connection related voltage drop and thrown a red flag, too. Tesla is pretty much on top of high voltage safety related items and detecting faults in all sorts of ways.

Anyway, a fire originating in the Gen1 HVJB seems very unlikely to me. If there were an issue with HVJBv1 then we would have seen a problem well before now considering there are something like 50,000 cars on the road with HVJBv1 and probably hundreds of thousands of related supercharge events.

 

[ggies07]

So if this all stems from a temp charger, then the price should not be affected. So what is the purpose of a temp instead waiting for the real one and why would the company even allow temp chargers?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Working on starting in real estate investing though. (Anyone know of any great deals? )

Just passed by the perfect place for the "2016 Superchargers Map" pin showing south of Rosenberg, TX and the property at that intersection is for sale. Build a Tesla-attractive amenity and they WILL come. You have them for a guaranteed 15-30 minutes, what do you want to sell them?
Look for the Beasley, Texas exit on the Southbound side of I-69. Now that Victoria TX is online, it (and Corpus Christi, and 3 Rivers) is a location of interest, and on TM's To-Do list.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I said IF the fire is caused by supercharging then yes, I stand by my $200 guess.

The last time there was a garage fire TSLA collapsed for a whopping $1.4 the next day. What makes you think we would be down $40 now?

 

[Johan]

The last time there was a garage fire TSLA collapsed for a whopping $1.4 the next day. What makes you think we would be down $40 now?

Qui vivra verra. It's all about how it's spun and most of all Tesla's response. Their track record when it comes to commitment to safety is excellent, but their track record when it comes to communications... well, not excellent.

 

[Papafox]

WK057, thanks for yet another excellent post.


also...
On the topic of real estate opportunities, don't forget the obvious effects of the gigafactory on real estate prices near Reno, NV. Interstate 80 Eastbound out of Reno and Sparks might get pretty busy as workers head to the gigafactory, and for this reason you can expect to see growth in a community called Fernley, east of the gigafactory. Mountains limit the area where housing can be built in the vicinity of the gigafactory, but the few nearby areas with available water and flat terrain will do great in the coming years.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I know everybody is a bit jumpy when a Tesla catches fire, but consider this:
- We now have about 100k Model S on the roads and this is about the 7th fire we are aware of.
- Form the latest pictures it is evident the fire started from the top left rear side, and NOT in the battery compartment, so this is one of a kind so far (1:100,000). The other fires happened after a huge crash or in the subpar wall wiring of a garage.
- Based on the pictures it is very likely the fire started due to a failure in the Model S parts being used during Supercharging, or it started in the charging station/transformer and spread to the car. In any case, once again, never before seen with 100k cars having driven 1 billion+ miles with whatever gigawatts already charged in the past 3 years.

The 3 similar cases before pointed to a possible design flaw/weakness, while this seems to be a single part failure. So even if we have a short dip in TSLA, no long lasting effects should be anticipated and once again, if on Monday we learn Tesla ended up 51-52k or higher 2015 deliveries, no one will care...

 

[wk057]

- Based on the pictures it is very likely the fire started due to a failure in the Model S parts being used during Supercharging, or it started in the charging station/transformer and spread to the car.

I'd be very curious as to what you would back this particular assertion up with. I've seen nothing that suggests this being a likely cause from the photos, nor from my first hand knowledge and experience with the Model S parts involved...

See Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 14 and Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 8

Edit: Also, people know me on this forum at all will undoubtedly easily note that I'm generally the last person to jump to Tesla's defense on anything. If I do, there's probably a pretty compelling reason.

 

[AlMc]

I'd be very curious as to what you would back this particular assertion up with. I've seen nothing that suggests this being a likely cause from the photos, nor from my first hand knowledge and experience with the Model S parts involved...

See Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 14 and Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 8

Edit: Also, people know me on this forum at all will undoubtedly easily note that I'm generally the last person to jump to Tesla's defense on anything. If I do, there's probably a pretty compelling reason.

My <bolding> :wink: Thanks Mr. WK.