Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SebastianR]

Well, looks like I need to mobilise some cash - just to get into the stock should there be a reaction to this. Then, after the smoke clears up (no pun intended), things should be pretty much back to normal with regards to TSLA. If we had seen a series of fires 2 years ago, I would have been worried. But one fire with so many thousands of cars out there driving hundreds of thousands of miles? Well that sounds like a very unfortunate accident (let's hope for that and not assume any bad intent) to me...

 

[anon]

Another possibility for an accident is a laptop/phone/tablet in the car. After all, there are occasional news stories about e.g. iPhones catching fire.

 

[Lump]

Another possibility for an accident is a laptop/phone/tablet in the car. After all, there are occasional news stories about e.g. iPhones catching fire.

Or one of those hoverboards with rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I can't speak to that question specifically, but according to Vehicle fire trends and patterns

There are, on average, 90 vehicle fires per billion miles driven. We know there are over 1 billion miles on the model S fleet because Tesla made that announcement in 2015. I haven't heard of more than ten fires at this point, so it seems the model S is ten times less likely to catch fire than an ICE vehicle.

Where did you get ten from?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

I really think this supercharger fire incident will not affect the stock because: 1) Monday will be all about delivery numbers. After missing their delivery target last year and changing/lowering it multiple times this year, it will be very important to see if Tesla can make the huge jump this quarter and hit 17k deliveries. 2) We've seen this story before. The 2013 incidents had material impacts (for a very short time, nonetheless) because it was very unclear how prevelant this issue will be for a car that had been on the road for only about a year. Now, with over 100K MS on the road and a significantly better track record, I don't think the uncertainty is there and I don't think it will affect demand whatsoever. Overall, if the market were open today, we would maybe see a small dip/buying opportunity, but it will be relatively forgotten on Monday.

Glad nobody was injured in the fire... and I want to wish everybody on the forum a Happy New Years!

 

[Causalien]

So, what have you successful guys done that's as epic as an investment to TSLA in your life?

 

[mmccord]

Where did you get ten from?

Fewer than ten.

 

[Cattledog]

So, what have you successful guys done that's as epic as an investment to TSLA in your life?

What other investments have we done or what other things have we done?

 

[Jeeps17]

What other investments have we done or what other things have we done?

A very important distinction ...

Investments - Not many :crying:

Things - Quite a few :biggrin:

 

[stealthology]

The dude bought the car 2 days before the fire. Nuff said.

 

[madodel]

The dude bought the car 2 days before the fire. Nuff said.

Does he work for Exxon/Mobile by any chance? ;-)

 

[Causalien]

What other investments have we done or what other things have we done?

Both. Some event you participated in that is big enough to rival the calamity known as Tesla. I am looking for more adrenaline.

 

[Ingineer]

My guess is f**e originated in the HVJB under the rear seat. On cars with gen 1 HVJB's, there is no temp sensing. They have since fixed this, but if there was high resistance in any of the connections in the HVJB, this could potentially cause a f**e on a gen 1 car. This could be due to a loose fastener, a bad SC contactor, etc.

 

[BornToFly]

GM has recalled 1.4million vehicles because of about 1,400 fires. That is one fire for every 1,000 cars!!!! To match that, we would need 100 Tesla fires.

 

[AlMc]

My guess is f**e originated in the HVJB under the rear seat. On cars with gen 1 HVJB's, there is no temp sensing. They have since fixed this, but if there was high resistance in any of the connections in the HVJB, this could potentially cause a f**e on a gen 1 car. This could be due to a loose fastener, a bad SC contactor, etc.

Excellent post. Do you feel WK057 speculation is also a plausible reason(s)
thanks

 

[Ingineer]

Excellent post. Do you feel WK057 speculation is also a plausible reason(s)
thanks

He thinks it's a cigarette or something? Yes, of course that's possible. This is all speculation right now. The gen1 HVJB is the likely culprit in my mind if it was a car fault. It's unlikely to be the charge port as it has thermal monitoring. It also seems to look like it originated in the back rather then the front.

 

[AlMc]

Sorry, I don't see his speculation anywhere?

Thanks. I was not aware of this problem. TM has been good at replacing parts/upgrading at annual service visits. Do you know if they replaced these non thermal sensing JBs?

 

[mmd]

My guess is f**e originated in the HVJB under the rear seat. On cars with gen 1 HVJB's, there is no temp sensing. They have since fixed this, but if there was high resistance in any of the connections in the HVJB, this could potentially cause a f**e on a gen 1 car. This could be due to a loose fastener, a bad SC contactor, etc.

If it was and Tesla knew about it, Tesla would have proactively issued a safety recall, and we should have already seen 10 Tesla articles about that recall. We couldn't have missed it.
It is definitely some nasty short seller burning down his car, keeping everyone at TMC busy on this new year's day.

 

[StephenM]

The dude bought the car 2 days before the fire. Nuff said.

This was my first thought, too. It is highly suspicious timing on several different levels, and foul play shouldn't ruled out.

 

[AudubonB]

TO THE EXTENT that this unfortunate event had to occur at all, I should like to say that for TSLA investors the least-worst timing I can think of is at the beginning of a three-day market holiday - as happened. This does provide a goodly amount of time for smoke to clear and dust to settle, so to speak.

- - - Updated - - -

Is this the 'official' short-term thread? It should be renamrd to "Short-Term TSLA Price Movements... ".

Eius primus cuius nominus. It SHOULD be named whatever the OP wants it to be named.

Unless a Mod jumps in and....

Oh. Lookee what I just did! :biggrin:

Happy New Year everyone.