Tesla Leasing warehouse space in Livermore is getting some press. The article clarifies that the buildings that Tesla signed the Lease for are currently under construction.
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mejojo
Active Member
Can you explain how if a 22kwh battery gets 81 then a 50% increase get 150 miles? Certainly less than 120. I've seen statements of 114.
Or you could blame it on Australia and China...@Hogfighter: If the SP drops a large amount today I am blaming it on 'bad jokes' much like we never...ever..ever..write poetry on the ST thread
colettimj
Member
Looked at Google Maps and it appears that there is a common rail line between the Fremont plant and the warehouse location.
Tesla is planning 'massive' job fair for this weekend, looking to hire 'hundreds' 'production assembly associates'.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I agree it's hard to measure, but that doesn't make it hard to define. The post I was replying to said those terms didn't mean anything. That statement is simply wrong, since the terms are self-explanatory.
Only if the hypothesis in dispute states a certain number, or even a range, for the demand. However, that's not the hypothesis over which any reasonable people argue, so it's not the one that needs falsifying. What people are arguing about is whether the phase transition from production-constrained to demand-constrained has occurred for Tesla or not. The only thing that matters is the balance of the two forces, supply and demand, assuming the current parameters of quality, price, and production rate, as you pointed out later in your post.
We don't need to quantify the exact demand; we can look at some proxy indicators instead and how they compare, say, to the Nissan Leaf (an example only, not trying to pick on them):
- Does the manufacturer advertise? Leaf/Yes, Tesla/No
- Do buyers get cash back if they buy a car today? Leaf/Yes, Tesla/No
- Are cars available for pickup today on dealer/manufacturer lots? Leaf/Yes, Tesla/No
- Are there waiting lists for the product? Leaf/No, Tesla/Yes
- Are prices on the secondary market lower than the class average? Leaf/Yes, Tesla/No
- Have scalpers attempted to grab the product in any markets? Leaf/No, Tesla/Yes
And finally, has Tesla had a history of challenges scaling up their production lines for all their models, due to a plethora of reasons, some of their own making? Unfortunately, the answer to that one is an emphatic yes.
So really, every time people bring up this canard with the demand, they are simply ignoring the balance of evidence, just as they do when they announce the arrival of Tesla killers. Show me the Model S and Model X sitting unsold on lots in numbers while the production line is humming, and you have a point. Until then, not so much. (I hope it's obvious this is not addressed at jhm).
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I am a skeptic of the "ship internationally for 2 quarters after 199,999 to maximize credits" theory, but a large warehouse space is necessary (but not sufficient) for this theory to play out.
I can't find the exact location of the warehouse, but there is a Tesla Rd just south of town.
The Electrek.co article has a nice map of where the three warehouses will sit. Doesn't look like they are adjacent to the rail line -- there is a piece of open land between the warehouses and the rail line.
Ulmo
Active Member
Railfreight around here is being eliminated as fast as possible for whatever reason. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that rail line is never used. But, it is by one of the last working rail lines, so who knows? It could be an option.
It's a great location to hire Central Valley workers from, while still being closer to Silicon Valley, but I wonder why they don't just go out to Central Valley in that case.
Maybe Tesla plans to have a line of buildings all the way from Half Moon Bay to Utah along that approximate line.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Ulmo
Active Member
According to Fred Lambert, it's those massive tilt-ups going up by state hwy 84/Isabel Avenue that literally everyone commuting in that subregion has seen. I immediately speculated at the time Tesla was the only candidate I knew of with those needs (if my memory is correct, that subregion confirmed by some statements in their last conference call), but this baffled me since I thought Livermore was relatively expensive and far for Central Valley standards (where most new workers live). For instance, Amazon is in Patterson.I can't find the exact location of the warehouse, but there is a Tesla Rd just south of town.
Perhaps these things take time, and it was the best deal they could come up with. Perhaps they know something about their logistics that makes that location worthwhile that I don't know; if they have to move stuff quickly between that space and their Fremont space, the hill with the windmills would be a huge huge impediment if they relocated by or beyond Tracy, so Livermore avoids that issue. This really reinforces the "close to home" concept, whatever that means.
Someone mentioned they have a Lathrop facility. I assume QC has to work overtime to keep the Stockton workers doing good work. If I were a huge company locating huge facilities in Central Valley, I'd want to get as far from Stockton commuting range as practical, just to avoid those post-apocalyptic workers. (Everyone from Stockton has people they know who have been murdered notched in their belts. Bad town. Quality work is not in their blood, I assume. And anybody who has decent home in mind (down hwy 99 a hair, etc.) would compete with Stockton workers and eventually just quit.)
Maybe San Juaquin County hobbled them with hiring quotas from within county, and that experience soured them from the whole Central Valley experience, but it's hard to imagine that level of ignorance; just move south and catch other counties. There's a zillion counties going down 5/99 from there. Granted, each with problems ... just a few shades better than Stockton, sometimes.
The more I think about it, Livermore catches a lot of East Bay workers in a favorable reverse commute, in addition to creme-skimming the C.V. workers. I hope they get what they want for $17/hour ... That's a starting wage for someone still living with their parents.
If manufacturing construction regulation is a concern, Central Valley counties may be too unsophisticated for Tesla's needs. Livermore is intra-county for Fremont -- both Alameda -- not my first choice, but they already have a working relationship with them, so that must count for something.
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Google self driving cars are gonna hit the road soon. It would be reasonable to expect a discussion in the upcoming conference call.
Fiat, Google Plan Partnership on Self-Driving Minivans
Fiat, Google Plan Partnership on Self-Driving Minivans
colettimj
Member
The report on model S from Inside EV is pretty interesting. They comment on reasons why April numbers might look a little low but also they determined that there was the highest number of orders for model S that they have ever seen.
There are too many creative ways to write up a lease deal, and it's common to negotiate a lot of free rent up front, along with early possession, etc. So this being a new construction, I assume, all the TI(interior customization to suite tenant use) is being handled by the builder, and Tesla just gets handed over the keys when complete. My thought was that it would be really difficult for Tesla to go through sight selection, building review, write up an offer, review, negotiate, finalize offer, and draw up contract, sign contract, all within 4 weeks after the M3 reveal, regardless of lease start date. Unless they were already working on this deal prior to M3 reveal... If so, was it on anticipation of heavy M3 demand or something else?
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