Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
As time passes tales from the future become current events. Which is a good thing because then we're able to check how our projections came to fit with reality.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
By the way, since paying attention to the thesis contrary of your own is important to all investors, long and short, I have a request:
I wish tftf, electracity and the rest of the resident bears keep posting their views during the rest of the year too. Because right now it seems they just come crawling out of the woodworks on rainy days (after substantial TSLA rain showers drops).
I wish tftf, electracity and the rest of the resident bears keep posting their views during the rest of the year too. Because right now it seems they just come crawling out of the woodworks on rainy days (after substantial TSLA rain showers drops).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Wrong attitude. Tesla is all about doing what many have said is impossible. You are assuming that everyone at Tesla is feeling demoralized for not making impossible deadlines, when in fact just coming close may be quite encouraging. Losing a close, hard fought game against difficult odds is often more satisfying than winning easily.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Elon just landed his second rocket on a floating barge after pushing a second stage rocket up toward geosynchronous orbit. 20x scaling an existing auto manufacturing operation to make a simpler product than the one currently produced should be relatively easy by comparison.
As many people have noted, the heavy lifting of figuring out how to be an auto manufacturer in the first place is already done. My questions are more around why we don't yet have a site and shovels in the ground for Gigafactory 2 in Philadelphia(or Georgia, or Louisiana).
I like the 2Q earnings short squeeze theory. The very same model is set up for SCTY, mediocre 1Q with outlandish guidance confirmation and then the hammer drops on the 2Q call. A double squeeze? Imagine the fallout, it would be hilarious.
As many people have noted, the heavy lifting of figuring out how to be an auto manufacturer in the first place is already done. My questions are more around why we don't yet have a site and shovels in the ground for Gigafactory 2 in Philadelphia(or Georgia, or Louisiana).
I like the 2Q earnings short squeeze theory. The very same model is set up for SCTY, mediocre 1Q with outlandish guidance confirmation and then the hammer drops on the 2Q call. A double squeeze? Imagine the fallout, it would be hilarious.
No, I don't agree. Short term valuation has been increased by a number of analysts.
Yes, I know what you really mean, but we've got some very happy campers here based on the decline of the SP.
That's the ticket! Now don't forget that and use it to your advantage next time.
Let Elon worry about the morale of his troops.
First of all, Elon himself said he needed to help his troops' morale by letting a win feel like a win. So he is abandoning that. Maybe the troops are thrilled with it, but it feels like a flipflop where he has decided to squeeze them instead. Fine, I don't work for him. But MANY theories around here have been couched on the idea that he was going to try to aim for more realistic goals and so those theories were shot to hell. So it is a material short term, trading theory observation that he will never actually do this. Plan accordingly.
So what's your trade then? Buy and hold is probably fine for a 3 year window. But the TMC commentariat hasn't coalesced around a new theory. DTU is out the window because we might well get a fair amount of "down" there is no near term "up" guaranteed at all. "Flat then up" suffers the same problem. from a traders point of view (NOT a is this a great plan to grow the company point of view) its crappy because there is no real reason to hang out in the stock during the no-profit, high-quarterly loss period of the next few quarters.
And please, no lecturing about how a good long term plan is the same thing as stock success. That crazy talk belongs in the long term thread.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah, that was my takeaway from the call too... I need to review the transcript.
The GF has much more capacity than the original 35 & 15 GWhs. More land purchased and more floor space. Added internal floors
if you watch the Space X team at the rentry of the rocket landing and the applause and joy of doing the impossible
then you can start believing in the impossible. That is what elon does.
General Motors is practically brain dead, and anybody of value there will soon exchange detroit for palo alto.
Need a few japanese production engineers to come over, the sleeping bag at the office types.
then you can start believing in the impossible. That is what elon does.
General Motors is practically brain dead, and anybody of value there will soon exchange detroit for palo alto.
Need a few japanese production engineers to come over, the sleeping bag at the office types.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I felt JB alluded to the Nevada site having far more capacity than what they've talked about and for investors not to get hung up on the 35/50 GWh figure they've given.
sub
Active Member
Finally caught up with the thread this morning, lots of panic around here. My feeling is there are far too many people that contribute to this thread that don't have the emotional fortitude to be investing or trading in TSLA.
Why do people believe that they have anywhere near the information available to them that Elon has? I love how people want to speak for the market, as if they know the exact ONE reason why the stock has dropped, the bears love to claim mind reading ability. Once the stock changes direction, and it will shortly, all the bears will go back into hibernation until the next period of panic when they will be back to gloat.
I have two model 3 reservations, I was happy to hear that my reservation has only been pushed back by 7% so far by current owners, meaning i'm still in the top 100k (reserved at the store). I have a large sum of money in J17 leaps, worst case is I'll roll them to J18's and wait slightly longer to double or triple my money, boo hoo.
have some faith people, and stop trading TSLA short term if you can't take the heat. I believe in the mission of Tesla, a few lost $'s short term means nothing to me.
Why do people believe that they have anywhere near the information available to them that Elon has? I love how people want to speak for the market, as if they know the exact ONE reason why the stock has dropped, the bears love to claim mind reading ability. Once the stock changes direction, and it will shortly, all the bears will go back into hibernation until the next period of panic when they will be back to gloat.
I have two model 3 reservations, I was happy to hear that my reservation has only been pushed back by 7% so far by current owners, meaning i'm still in the top 100k (reserved at the store). I have a large sum of money in J17 leaps, worst case is I'll roll them to J18's and wait slightly longer to double or triple my money, boo hoo.
have some faith people, and stop trading TSLA short term if you can't take the heat. I believe in the mission of Tesla, a few lost $'s short term means nothing to me.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Does anyone here know what the morale of 'the troops' is at this point? On the one hand I would think it would be good as they are working at a cutting edge manufacturing company that is helping humanity. On the other hand, there appears to be some turnover at middle/upper management over the last year that may have a variety of impacts on their morale.
As to price movement. Analysts are struggling with the same information we have from the ER/CC. Do they believe that the guidance provided can be met or 'near miss' or do they model for more than a 'near miss'?
yes the next few weeks/months (short term) will be interesting.
As to price movement. Analysts are struggling with the same information we have from the ER/CC. Do they believe that the guidance provided can be met or 'near miss' or do they model for more than a 'near miss'?
yes the next few weeks/months (short term) will be interesting.
I want to hear the bear side (changes in the bear side). So, I agree with Johan. But you don't have to come and go. Just stay and debate.
I am not here to listen to one side of the debate.
Circling firing squads whether you are a bear or bull are not the way to gleen information when you are investing hard earned dollars.
keep the personal attacks and name calling out (both bulls and bears)
thanks
Last edited:
I'm a fanboy, er, fansenior of Mohammed El-Erian who was just interviewed again on Bloomberg News. (Sorry no link, but should be easily available.) He was responding to the low jobs report and questions regarding Fed intentions. He says the market is overreacting. A duh comment but calming to me when El-Erian says so. Also, he advises not to throw out the possibility there will still be one or possible two anticipated moderate rate hikes this year since the jobs report includes good worker participation and wage increases which the Fed will see as positive. I think I've translated this accurately, but there is much more in his words. Enjoy.
Here's a link to his written report: 4 Quick Takeaways From the April Jobs Report. The interview was better as they pursued questions that were appropriate.
Here's a link to his written report: 4 Quick Takeaways From the April Jobs Report. The interview was better as they pursued questions that were appropriate.
Last edited:
To add to this, I was watching the SpaceX launch this morning and one of the hosts was holding a device. It was a space camera which makes it possible to see video footage in the cold dark reach of space just feet from a ravaging, exothermic reaction that propels a satellite to freaking 37,500 km above Earth. Who built that camera? Why SpaceX of course!
The gigafactory and my basement have the same battery capacity today. I'm officially announcing I'm doubling the battery manufacturing in my basement.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thanks. Yep.
For me, The MAIN point with Elon's new 2017 guidance is 2017 PRODUCTION is targeted to be MUCH higher than originally guided. Far far higher
So, analysts and investors can debate how many Model3s Tesla will ultimately produce in 2017. Could be as high as 100k-200k. Could be 50k. Worse case would be zero.
Even 50K is higher than analysts were expecting. it'll become clearer in coming months.
Therefore, analyst financial models and PTs need to get adjusted and many did an initial PT raise yesterday. Even the bear analysts adjusted. MS didn't change it his PT is $335
As capital raise occurs, more analysts will bump their PTs since this derisks the buildout.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
This is crucial, and needs repeating. I just watch some talking heads on CNBC or some such going on about how they need a bunch more gigafactories and Fremonts in order to meet the new production targets, which completely flies in the face of what Tesla has told us about GF and Fremont capacity, i.e, that they are good for about 1 million vehicles per year. Things like this is why the market is getting it wrong right now and why we are getting it right. Once the market actually understands what Tesla is doing is when we lose our advantage. They ain't there yet, not even close.
Yuri_G
Member
Oh, please throw your hat into the ring. How is all that long range BEV competition coming? What was your prediction for the range on the Hyundai Ioniq again?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
