Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
That's it......I'm skipping group therapy and going straight to individual sessions. Gotta get that image out of my head
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This is an example of a lesson learned. After the Model S launch, they were air-freighting tires from Continental in Europe!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I doubt that that underperformance had anything to do with Gilbert's move to other projects. Elon is quick to fire anyone who isn't pulling their weight.
The simplest and most likely explanation IMO is that Gilbert's skill sets and talents were better suited to the other projects.
Krugerrand
Meow
First part - not helpful (no button for that.
) Second part - Right?! (no button for that either.
)All I want to know is: When exactly will we be able to create our own buttons?! I got a bunch of ideas. Oh, and just because you (general) can't equate any of 'this' to Short Term investing, doesn't mean I can't or haven't (in my head). I am unhappy about the $207.61 close, but quite content with the $207.00 after hours even though that means less money in my pocket. I'm thinking there should be some investing rule that you can only trade $1 increments - or one penny when that means the number will end in a 9 (because that's my fav number).
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Or look beyond the surface... the paintings are symmetrically placed with the wall sockets, therefore with the interior wall studs. I find a peaceful place in this.
Krugerrand
Meow
colettimj
Member
Or perhaps he became known as a "fixer" who could jump in to whatever project/effort needed his talents?
First part - not helpful (no button for that.
Second part - Right?! (no button for that either.
All I want to know is: When exactly will we be able to create our own buttons?! I got a bunch of ideas.
My previous suggestions...
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Your number is definitely inaccurate (too low). Both Panasonic and Tesla have stated repeatedly that the 30% figure is a conservative number. Elon and JB explained that it's largely because of custom cell manufacturing equipment and collocation of processes.
The person would also want to be sure that there's a credibile production plan. I just emailed the following to a friend:
I think that it doesn't make any sense at all to build multiple M3 lines at Fremont. They would need to build two simultaneously to get to 200k by the end of the 2012.
It's impossible to get to 200k by the end of 2017 and do a multi-phase build out. If they do multiple smaller lines their schedule mandates simultaneous lines. Or they could do one bigger line. Nothing else fits Elon's estimated production levels.FredTMC said:
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Interesting Motor Trend articles about visiting OEM Production Lines:
Inside the Machine: What I've Learned From Auto Factory Tours - Motor Trend
Inside the Machine: What I've Learned From Auto Factory Tours - Motor Trend
How the Toyota New Global Architecture Will Impact Mass-Car Building
I think for the full pack price the cost improvement will need to be more than 30% to produce the M3.
The actual dollar cost between manufacturers is unknowable. No manufacturers will disclose enough details to compare apples to apples. Tesla in particular will capitalize pack development costs that other manufacturers will likely expense.
The problem is the starting figure... under $190/kWh all in cost most likely includes the USD/Yen changes that have dropped prices dramatically since 2013. So is it another 30%? Maybe, maybe not. Plus, any commodity price and FX changes... primarily with the CAD/USD since nickel and bauxite often comes from Canada might cause issues with hitting another 30%. Commodity prices are already pretty low, so if they go up, it could erase some of the process efficiency gains. Besides, the point can be made that the Model 3 is viable as a gross margin positive product without going to the full 30%.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla's current pack costs are more likely $170 per kWh. $190 is the maximum possible since the April 2015 TE Launch, which might be after most of the USD Yen exchange rate changes that you mentioned?
You think that buying the raw materials directly from the mines in Canada at a larger scale will increase their costs?
It is not the full 30%, because that's a conservative estimate.
Plus it doesn't account for cell chemistry improvements.
If one estimated the cost of the pack back in 2013, it likely was somewhere around $230/kWh and Tesla charged customers about $305/kWh. Maybe it was lower, but one would assume their GM would have been much better if it were substantially lower. Since then, commodity prices have plunged and the dollar has gotten much stronger. Since Tesla buys the cells in yen, there is about 25-30% off on the cell portion, the pack assembly costs are likely not all that much different. That leads us to the $185/kWh pricing. Back in 2013/2014, Tesla was talking about the Gigafactory and shaving 30% off the price of batteries. It wasn't clear exactly how that would happen other than consolidating production into one location of the various parts of the cell and achieving scale. I suspect it has to do with energy management, cutting out shipping, and compressing margins with scale. After all, one has to use a lot of energy to just charge and discharge the cells during production so there is always a ready amount of energy storage on site that has to be used. In any case, if the 30% is all process innovation, then we get another 30% on the $185/kWh. There might be savings in the pack integration as part of that, but one would assume that if there were a lot to be saved there, they would have already done it. Maybe just changing to bigger cylindrical cells will make some significant savings. In any case, that's $130/kWh. However, since commodity prices are really low, if those prices go back up somewhat, that will erase some of the 30% drop that has happened ahead of the Gigafactory process improvements. So instead of starting at $185/kWh, a significant rise in nickel, aluminum, cobalt, synthetic graphite, and/or lithium prices could make an impact of the next 2-5 years. So instead of modeling for $130/kWh, I chose to use $150/kWh to counter those arguments that the commodity prices aren't going to stay this low. The point is to make sure that the Model 3 is a viable product without needing to squeeze every last cost improvement on the pack.
At 55 kWh * $150/kWh, we're talking $8,250 for the Model 3 pack.
At 52 kWh * $130/kWh, we're talking $6,760 for the Model 3 pack.
At 60 kWh * $215/kWh, we're talking $12,900 for the Bolt pack.
Now, the Bolt pack pricing is expected to stay the same through 2019 according to GM's graph. We expect that Tesla's cell pricing to continue to improve.
A single line cannot produce 100-200k in 3 months near end of 2017. Im betting for 2 lines
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