sub
Active Member
Cue the WSJ hit piece on how Audi will now go BK because this guy left for Tesla.....oh wait.
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I deliberately chose to not apply the full 30% off, going for 20% instead. Yes, they might save another thousand or two, but I didn't want to count on it.
As I mentioned a day or two ago, to hire someone serious who knows what it takes to manufacture cars at Elon's desired level and time-frame, that person would expect to see a credible and imminent financial plan. I believe that to now be the case.
jhm
Well-Known Member
This is excellent analysis. I very much appreciated the use of multiple lines of data to tell a more complete story. This is well more than just a response to the demand debate. This is material investors really need to understand. The pile up of raw materials and WIP is obviously a strain on cash flow. As the production issues resolve, we should see cash flow improve. A portion of cost of goods to be delivered in Q2 was essentially prepaid in Q1.
Thanks, Techmaven!
Seems to be a good news day for TSLA today, especially the Audi production exec joining.
How Elon Musk exposed billions in questionable Pentagon spending
How Elon Musk exposed billions in questionable Pentagon spending
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Well yeah, but they couldn't get McRat, so I suppose this was the best they could do.
So April car sales looked good across the board in Europe and the US according to official data released today.
This is on top of Tesla specific info such as the Inside EV report that noted model S demand in April was unprecedented, and also supportive comments from the recent CC.
It seems unlikely that we are demand constrained just yet, within a generally healthy market.
This is on top of Tesla specific info such as the Inside EV report that noted model S demand in April was unprecedented, and also supportive comments from the recent CC.
It seems unlikely that we are demand constrained just yet, within a generally healthy market.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Sure. Thx. There's no way the first assembly line would be capable of less than 150k/year since the existing MS/MX line is capable of that amount at least. So, the lower bound is 150k. Likewise, I haven't found examples of lines producing more than a couple hundred thousand per line per year. If the goal is 500k / yr rate by end of 2018, then a few lines make perfect sense at Fremont. Additional lines at EU/APAC factories later.
Cheers
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Nice. My question has been where in the world in Gilbert Passin?! He's been the VP of mfg at Fremont since ~2010 and is highly regarded. Came from Canada Lexus plant producing 200k/yr of the Lexus RX350
Tesla Hires Toyota Manufacturing Expert
a few times on earnings calls, it's been obvious that he's heard various bear smears of the preceding weeks, was not amused by them, and with quite a bit of energy, tears them to shreds. no guarantees, but we do have the annual meeting coming up in two and a half weeks.
so my question is actually the opposite of what you suspected (not that the 200k seems too high, but that it is too low) - my point is you can't make 100k cars in three months on a line that is set up for 200k per year. I don't see how they can phase in the production with multiple lines and still manage to make 100k cars in 2017. as for precedent, i have to believe there are plenty of auto manufacturing lines capable of producing more than a couple hundred thousand per year. maybe McRat can enlighten us
let me know if i'm missing something.
surfside
Gilbert's Linkedin page lists new responsibility but he is no longer on Tesla management page like he once was.
2010 - 2013
- Plan, Launch & Run the Model S Vehicle Manufacturing Operations - Fremont Factory, CA
2013 - Present
- Plan, Launch & Run the World Wide Remanufacturing Operations for Tesla.
- Plan, Launch & Run the new Machining, Casting & Extrusions Operations - Lathrop Factory, CA
- Plan, Launch & Run the new European Manufacturing Operations - Tilburg Factory, NL
- Plan, Launch & Run the new Tesla Energy operations - Fremont Factory, CA
- Run the Supercharger Operations - Fremont Factory, CA
- Ran the OEM Operations to build & supply electric powertrain components to Toyota Rav4 EV - Fremont Factory, CA
- Plan, Launch & Run the OEM Operations for Daimler B Class EV - Fremont Factory, CA
Management | Tesla Motors
It would be nice if they listed more "management" or updated the page.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx. I noticed same on Tesla's Mgmt page. Just 3 people. Not just him. Franz isn't their either.
Looks like Gilbert has been moved off years ago to side projects. It's impossible to know if he underperformed or Elon was just being unreasonable.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
so my question is actually the opposite of what you suspected (not that the 200k seems too high, but that it is too low) - my point is you can't make 100k cars in three months on a line that is set up for 200k per year. I don't see how they can phase in the production with multiple lines and still manage to make 100k cars in 2017. as for precedent, i have to believe there are plenty of auto manufacturing lines capable of producing more than a couple hundred thousand per year. maybe McRat can enlighten us
let me know if i'm missing something.
surfside
Thx. It's just my opinion. Multiple lines phased over time rather than one 500k assembly line. I guess we will find out. I've been to Fremont many times... Educated guess...
Also important to understand that tesla won't be scaling tooling for 500k anytime soon. Only need to invest in half scale (phase 1) for now. Similar to GF multi year buildout
You bring up an important point about the annual meeting being only a few weeks away. On one hand, annual meetings for TSLA can be lovefests of sorts, where the shareholdings in attendance are smitten to see the Tesla officers and board members in person and don't play hardball. I attended last year's annual meeting and the most dramatic event was the questioning by a few attendees of why Tesla does not offer a high-end, animal-friendly alternative to leather seats. One should not expect much to come out of a Tesla annual meeting.
That said, this year could be different. Tesla has a potential incentive (equity funding) to see the share prices run higher, and you could in fact hear information that could affect the market. For example, if someone (hint, hint) were to ask how the Q2 production and deliveries looks for being on track for meeting guidance, we might receive a positive response that the market could pick up upon. It all depends upon who gets to the microphones first: the people with rather inconsequential questions as far as the market is concerned, or the people who ask questions that investors really want to hear the answer to. With Model X production moving briskly forward these days, and with the market not well aware of this recent progress, the stage is set for positive comments of consequence.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Krugerrand
Meow
Tesla selects Hankook Tire as main supplier for Model 3 tires
If true, this shows Tesla is serious about the accelerated ramp (not that I had a doubt). Wouldn´t have thought that tires are something especially critical, but if they are designed specifically for M3 to have superior rolling resistance, might be good to have agreements so far ahead.
If true, this shows Tesla is serious about the accelerated ramp (not that I had a doubt). Wouldn´t have thought that tires are something especially critical, but if they are designed specifically for M3 to have superior rolling resistance, might be good to have agreements so far ahead.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
It is part of the program` grasshoppers. When you see no difference in spacing you are zen and have reached nirvana.
(OR you just have to get up and straighten those 'f..in' painting or it will drive you crazy!!!!)
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