Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Contrast this, the timing, etc., with GM on the ignition switch fiasco. I know, apples and oranges, but....

Actually, I think you are spot on and it is a fair comparison as it goes to the "character" of the company, or at least its leadership. Remember how they recalled all Model S because of just 1 seatbelt latch? How they proactively replaced motor parts because of issues with some early builds? How they have recalled all X 3rd rows, because an 18th test has failed - when it was "only" the EU test, and it did pass the US standards and all cars shipped were US?

They actually put their money where their mouth is.

 

[willowspuppy]

BTW, MM just doesn't take 2018 500k deliveries (30B in revevue) seriously at all. Assuming they can do it, a P/S ratio of 3 will make Tesla a 90B company. Even they just can deliver 300K vehicles, (20B in revenue), the stock price should double by end of 2018.

I don't have the quote handy but I'm pretty sure Elon's words were that Tesla's goal is to achieve 500k annual run rate in 2018, not necessarily that 2018 production would be 500k.

 

[tander]

I don't have the quote handy but I'm pretty sure Elon's words were that Tesla would achieve 500k annual run rate in 2018, not necessarily that 2018 production would be 500k.

Anybody remember the actual numbers/dated they listed?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Colorado now has a $5000 EV tax credit - Colorado approves major EV tax credit

Wasn't it $6k previously?

 

[maoing]

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...E45227BA/Q1_2016_Tesla_Shareholder_Letter.pdf

Additionally, given the demand for Model 3, we have decided to


advance our 500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S,

Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously

planned.

 

[dalalsid]

Wasn't it $6k previously?

It was some kind of formula based on the size of the battery (no idea how it worked) and now it is a flat 5k. Maybe it is worse but the news is reporting it as the best EV incentive in the country.

 

[madodel]

Considering TMC Bull to Bear ratio might be 30-1 historically, maybe the Bulls sold on May 5th & went away .

Isn't sping bear mating season? Maybe they are occupied.

 

[Causalien]

People don't like to see success, particularly when they are unable to participate in the success (i.e. I can't afford a Model S). They adore seeing something or someone who is successful fail in a dramatic fashion. Look at the Tiger Woods fiasco....it was in the news for months because, well, people loved to read about his failure.

The Model 3 changes the mindset of the Middle Class. They see a car that's gorgeous, sporty and that they can afford. Suddenly they go from 'I hope they fail dramatically' to 'I hope they make it so I can ride around in my hot car'.

And Causalien, stop cheating on us by visiting other forums.

My love is infinite. There is room for all... But I need my adrenaline fix.

This thing was triggered while doing some Real Estate research. Probably one of the industry where I do not expect to hear about Tesla.

Then I checked a few other places and it seems RE peolle likes to talk about Tesla for some reason.

 

[Intl Professor]

My love is infinite. There is room for all... But I need my adrenaline fix.

This thing was triggered while doing some Real Estate research. Probably one of the industry where I do not expect to hear about Tesla.

Then I checked a few other places and it seems RE peolle likes to talk about Tesla for some reason.

Please keep up the eclectic approach. I should post the following on the macro thread, but there are more readers here. Try this, too.

You might be interested in a new journal launched by the Media Lab at MIT.

Journal of Design and Science

I found particularly interesting an article by Neri Oxman using entanglement in a new way.

Age of Entanglement

A flavor is in the second paragraph:

“This essay proposes a map for four domains of creative exploration—Science, Engineering, Design and Art—in an attempt to represent the antidisciplinary hypothesis: that knowledge can no longer be ascribed to, or produced within, disciplinary boundaries, but is entirely entangled. The goal is to establish a tentative, yet holistic, cartography of the interrelation between these domains, where one realm can incite ®evolution inside another; and where a single individual or project can reside in multiple dominions. Mostly, this is an invitation to question and to amend what is being proposed.”

It seems to me Elon Musk and Tesla fit this description of creativity very well, in contrast to investors and automakers of the traditional sort. It is what Ivan Ilych was getting at in deschooling society some 45 years ago. The enemy is traditionalism, "the dead faith of the living," as opposed to tradition, "the living faith of the dead." Aristotle wrote about rhetoric, science, ethics, politics, and more. We need more Aristotles in our age.

 

[esk8mw]

Pathetic volume today, so plenty of opportunity to hold the price down. Absent a macro event we appear to have stabilized in this range. I think we move higher in the near term.

 

[aznt1217]

If I remember right last year was pretty boring, and as they get bigger they seem to be more tight-lipped. But then again they don't pay for advertising, and shareholder's meetings get lot's of free press.

Listen, just because we didn't have level 2 super geniuses doesn't mean it was boring LOL.

Don't worry though, it's a good place to give an overall update of the company.

 

[kenliles]

Sure, but they lose money on every vehicle they build

Fortunately, demand is limiting the loss

 

[MitchJi]

I think the most important point here that we want to make is that we're advancing the Model 3 build plan substantially, and just the overall volume plan, with Tesla aiming to get to the half million unit per year run rate in 2018 instead of 2020.

But:
Obviously if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production on the order of 500,000 cars in 2018, it can't take more than two years to get there.

And:
So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's my expectation right now.

I don't think we've got an amazing crystal ball to figure out exactly what it's going to be. I feel confident about the topline number, but the mix internally, it is difficult to figure that out. Maybe it's something like 100,000 to 150,000 S and X, and then maybe 300,000 to 400,000 of 3, I don't know. It's really hard to say.

Question:

1 million vehicles in 2020. Is that a production target, a production goal, or a hypothetical?

That's my best guess. If we're half a million in 2018 and roughly 50%-ish growth from there, then it's probably around a million in 2020.

For catalyst timing, we should see on July1-3 better-than-guidance Q2 delivery numbers and Tesla could hint at these being good at May30 annual meeting, if they wish. If Tesla plans on borrowing first stage of expansion money, that should happen soon, but if it plans an equity raise they will likely want a higher SP first, and they'll get that should Tesla let the cat out of the bag and show a likelihood of Q2 profitability.

Maybe they can state that due to improved cash flow, that they can delay the raise until 2H 2016?

 

[Johan]

Please keep up the eclectic approach. I should post the following on the macro thread, but there are more readers here. Try this, too.

You might be interested in a new journal launched by the Media Lab at MIT.

Journal of Design and Science

I found particularly interesting an article by Neri Oxman using entanglement in a new way.

Age of Entanglement

A flavor is in the second paragraph:

“This essay proposes a map for four domains of creative exploration—Science, Engineering, Design and Art—in an attempt to represent the antidisciplinary hypothesis: that knowledge can no longer be ascribed to, or produced within, disciplinary boundaries, but is entirely entangled. The goal is to establish a tentative, yet holistic, cartography of the interrelation between these domains, where one realm can incite ®evolution inside another; and where a single individual or project can reside in multiple dominions. Mostly, this is an invitation to question and to amend what is being proposed.”

It seems to me Elon Musk and Tesla fit this description of creativity very well, in contrast to investors and automakers of the traditional sort. It is what Ivan Ilych was getting at in deschooling society some 45 years ago. The enemy is traditionalism, "the dead faith of the living," as opposed to tradition, "the living faith of the dead." Aristotle wrote about rhetoric, science, ethics, politics, and more. We need more Aristotles in our age.

I think Elon got this one when he was probably around 12 years old:

'Maybe I did not live as I ought to have done,' it suddenly occurred to him. 'But how could that be, when I did everything properly?' he replied, and immediately dismissed from his mind this, the sole solution of all the riddles of life and death, as something quite impossible.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Fortunately, demand is limiting the loss

No it isn't! It's only those 500k S/X/3 "early adapters". Once those cars are delivered, Tesla is sooo done!

 

[Intl Professor]

I seldom put credence in anything on Seeking Alpha, but Randy Carlson just posted his best ever, IMHO, especially the innovations part.

Enjoy and comment upon:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975416-tesla-model-3-wins-innovative-simplicity#alt2

 

[jesselivenomore]

Just out:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - 13F From George Soros Shows New Stake In Tesla

No reaction in stock, but personally I'd pay attention to Soros even moreso than Buffet. I believe the last time he had a stake in Tesla was Q3 2014 when he sold out.

 

[SPadival]

I re-watched "Revenge of the electric car" on NetFlix. Watch it if you haven't or re-watch if you have.

Given the challenges TSLA faced then and overcome, Model 3 seems like a cake walk to me.

 

[electracity]

I seldom put credence in anything on Seeking Alpha, but Randy Carlson just posted his best ever, IMHO, especially the innovations part.

Enjoy and comment upon:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975416-tesla-model-3-wins-innovative-simplicity#alt2

I think he is right on the HUD. There is an important implication. First, Musk can't do the second reveal until he is damn sure the car is ready for production because he will kill S/X sales. If they kill S/X sales, they have to do a fast ramp.

I'm assuming Tesla doesn't have the capacity to get superHUD into the S/X before model 3 release. I assume this is why Musk keeps telling S/X owners how much he appreciates their support.

Tesla may not have planned for UI 2.0 to go into the Model 3 first. It may have been targeted in the model X.

The ghosting in the model X windshield may be a HUD lamination layer, as I suggested in another thread.

 

[Johan]

Just out:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - 13F From George Soros Shows New Stake In Tesla

No reaction in stock, but personally I'd pay attention to Soros even moreso than Buffet. I believe the last time he had a stake in Tesla was Q3 2014 when he sold out.

Agreed Chris. Soros is definitely the one to observe. Buffet has a lot of press and precence but Soros has the dinero.