Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tander]

I am not seeing the increased share count in yahoo finance. Market cap($29.19B)/SP ($217.91) still shows 134M shares outstanding. When will the new share count of 143.6M show up on these sites?

I think Yahoo/Google pull straight from Edgar so they won't update until the paperwork is done.

 

[esk8mw]

I am not seeing the increased share count in yahoo finance. Market cap($29.19B)/SP ($217.91) still shows 134M shares outstanding. When will the new share count of 143.6M show up on these sites?

At least for the NYSE, companies must report share counts quarterly. NASDAQ is probably the same. So, Yahoo finance likely will not have the updated number until after Q2 ends.

 

[esk8mw]

Sure. One more on retarded fanboy list.

Why bother to block anyone? Your stay here will not be long. Back to SA and Yahoo message boards for you.

 

[Papafox]

The Perfectlogic show

OK, we're into our second day of the Perfectlogic show, where Perfectlogic poses provocative statements and the forum members engage in a discussion of those statements. Here's the important question: Have we learned anything new with all these discussions? It's possible that the people who work with numbers such as depreciation might have seen something useful. If so, please tell us what you learned that you didn't know before. On the question of demand, I don't see anything that hasn't been proposed before. And so, with all these pages of discussions, what have we learned that we didn't know before?

 

[mejojo]

The Perfectlogic show

what have we learned that we didn't know before?

That he has an amusing user name.

 

[Tenable]

Bob Lutz will be on "Power Lunch" on CNBC shortly to talk about electric cars. He will undoubtedly harp on how Tesla's targets are impossible.

Compared to the Lutz standard, his appearance was downright complimentary. He actually conceded the piston engine would become "redundant" vs electric. Though he claimed it would only be so once electric cars had a range of 350-400 miles at a modest price.

 

[FANGO]

Glad I'm not missing anything insightful here while I'm on vacation.

 

[mejojo]

SP has been unnaturally stable for hours, and with not-insignificant volume.

Is it the invisible hand guiding things to a logical conclusion?

 

[FredTMC]

I think you are one of the retarded fanboys. Don't reply to me anymore, block you.

You personally insulted one of this forum's long-standing well respected contributors by suggesting he is mentally disabled.

You also insult anyone impacted by mental diseases.

I strongly recommend to the moderators you be banned. Clearly you have nothing to contribute to this forum.

 

[madodel]

Will happen slowly over the next few weeks - does not happen all at once.

MS deliveries have increased each of the past two years by over 50%, and continue to grow year over year. This won't continue, but demand/deliveries still growing at a large clip, as evidenced by Q1'16 MS deliveries being up over 23.8% from Q1'15. If each quarter grows by an average of just 20% from the previous year, they will deliver over 60k MS this year - higher than most are projecting.

Denial of reality has worked so well for the shills so far, why would you think facts would matter now?

 

[Tenable]

I'm all in, GL everyone.

 

[lango]

All I have been commenting on is current demand, under current parameters, and that figure is easy to figure out as we have all the data needed. Now you are saying that demand will increase when people can get their car a week earlier, I acknowledge that this is indeed a positive on the demand side, but as the waiting time already is quite low at least for their biggest market, the US, I don't believe this to be that big of a factor. At least not until, if they even choose to, start filling lots with cars available for instant purchase like Curt has mentioned. I'm sure this would stimulate demand significantly but would also come with an added cost for Tesla.

It is always possible to stimulate demand for a product by either advertisement, lowering the price or bettering the quality of the product, but all these things pressure the gross margin which is already very thin if not negative when accounting for cost not part included in the COGS but still relevant to current sales.

Current demand right this second is probably 0. So it is all about the time window you use. Anything else than per quarter is too short if you want to determine if current production rate is aligned with current demand rate. Tesla can and will increase demand for both S and X without incurring advertising cost or any other activity that lowers GM. More people seeing them om the road, talking to people that owns them, more stores opening etc... it is a positive feedback loop.

Do you really think demand in California is naturally at-least 10x higher than rest of the world? Tesla is growing in many countries sales with over 100% but from low numbers. Selling 200 cars vs 100 a year ago does not make a huge difference yet compared to sales in western US but it will soon, you know because of exponential growth.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think you are one of the retarded fanboys. Don't reply to me anymore, block you.

That's the most convincing and well thought bear argument I've ever seen.

 

[SPadival]

The 90s called. They want their Yahoo message board and the trolls back.

 

[FredTMC]

Looks like a run up to $220 (max pain) is doable into the close

Great week. Daily Volume increasing for the last three days. Today over 8m shares

Congrats to all the longs

 

[mejojo]

These 2 are clearly volunteers.....if they were paid they'd no doubt have to return the stipend.

 

[mejojo]

Looks like a run up to $220 (max pain) is doable into the close

Like Clockwork...

 

[FredTMC]

$220

 

[esk8mw]

My observation from earlier is holding. Since we went up on volume, drifting down on low volume midday was OK. As volume returned, we continued upward since we didn't have a macro shock sending us lower on volume.

I predicted a $223 high/$220 close but I think I'd rather have the close like this, near the high of the day.

 

[mmd]

The Perfectlogic show

OK, we're into our second day of the Perfectlogic show, where Perfectlogic poses provocative statements and the forum members engage in a discussion of those statements. Here's the important question: Have we learned anything new with all these discussions? It's possible that the people who work with numbers such as depreciation might have seen something useful. If so, please tell us what you learned that you didn't know before. On the question of demand, I don't see anything that hasn't been proposed before. And so, with all these pages of discussions, what have we learned that we didn't know before?

You are assuming that everyone here has been around as long as yourself. There are new members that may not know as much as you. I see the discussions reveal 2 main points:
1) The gross margin is not what it looks at first sight, and is not comparable to the GM of other car makers. It will be unwise to model profits using this, and so arguments like "20% profit on each car will soon pay off any new debt/capital raised" don't work.
2) The average wait times are still historically low and are steady at that level.

Now, can we also list a few things we learnt in the other posts?
I get it that some people saw a few Model X on the road. Unless you didn't believe Tesla's delivery numbers, that is not news