Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[The Blue Owl]

Message Volume theory and Board Sentiment theory, along with the new foundation at $215, indicate a new trend might be starting.

In English - The number of posts today is no-where near a peak and the average sentiment of posts today is fairly neutral.

OMG the board has a demand problem!

(Technically, I didn't break my promise.)

 

[Wenche]

It was posted this morning at my IB news feed.

 

[CButterK]

This news might be the reason to see strength in last trading hour.

The news of Panasonic pulling in Investments for GF has been circulating since 8 hours ago...

Panasonic can speed up Tesla plant investment if needed

 

[mrdoubleb]

I normally don't feed the trolls, but I'll just leave this here tonight:

 

[Perfectlogic]

I normally don't feed the trolls, but I'll just leave this here tonight:
View attachment 177438

I haven't seen anyone claiming that the demand is falling. Nice straw man though, the bulls here seem to like that kind of strategy.

 

[Wenche]

At Wednesday close at 211,17, the max pain was at 220. Did not changed. Do someone know more than we do?

 

[JamesTSLA]

I normally don't feed the trolls, but I'll just leave this here tonight:
View attachment 177438

There are always folks to replace "below expectation demand" with "falling demand" and thus discredit any demand concerns, which is a good strategy to stir the muddy water. It's clearly even Panasonic not satisfied with Model S demand growth trajectory, so they are very reluctant to commit the investment to GF (only invested $128 million so far).

 

[30seconds]

I haven't seen anyone claiming that the demand is falling. Nice straw man though, the bulls here seem to like that kind of strategy.

Besides you? If you are not saying that demand is a.) either falling or b.) flat what then are you arguing about?

 

[JamesTSLA]

I haven't seen anyone claiming that the demand is falling. Nice straw man though, the bulls here seem to like that kind of strategy.

Exactly. Sensible bulls all know Tesla's demand issue and protect their investment accordingly. Only blind bulls (fanboys/girls, cheerleads) don't want to face the issue. But the ultimate question to ask those guys who defended Tesla demand for years. How's your TSLA investment performance?

 

[JamesTSLA]

View attachment 177440 At Wednesday close at 211,17, the max pain was at 220. Did not changed. Do someone know more than we do?

Max pain doesn't always work. It only works sometimes

 

[Perfectlogic]

Besides you? If you are not saying that demand is a.) either falling or b.) flat what then are you arguing about?

Have you read my posts? I have made it very clear more than once that I think demand is rising, just slowly. Many here seems to think that demand is still growing 50% per year meaning 75k MS would be no problem this year. I don't believe this to be the case at all, and that (I believe) will make it very difficult to meet even the low end of the yearly guidance as the X demand has been soft.

 

[JamesTSLA]

I think 2016 model S demand growth will be no more than 10%, more likely 5% or flat. Plus evident soft model X demand (low conversion rate and short wait time). It's likely Tesla will miss Q2 guidance and lower full year guidance in July. Adam Jonas always got it right for Tesla delivery, his estimation is 75K for 2016. Can Tesla continue to blame production again? NO WAY! Because it'll scare the investors which make hope to pie-in-the-sky model 3 production plan.

 

[CButterK]

Have you read my posts? I have made it very clear more than once that I think demand is rising, just slowly. Many here seems to think that demand is still growing 50% per year meaning 75k MS would be no problem this year. I don't believe this to be the case at all, and that (I believe) will make it very difficult to meet even the low end of the yearly guidance as the X demand has been soft.

So, I believe Tesla's comment about growing 50% YoY was relative to their production/sales rate, and not specific to Model S only. This being the case, they only need to produce/deliver 75K total units in 2016 to satisfy their "50% growth YoY" statement. And of course with the Model 3 coming Q4 next year, they're likely to be on a run rate to be much >100% YoY through 2020...

 

[30seconds]

Have you read my posts? I have made it very clear more than once that I think demand is rising, just slowly. Many here seems to think that demand is still growing 50% per year meaning 75k MS would be no problem this year. I don't believe this to be the case at all, and that (I believe) will make it very difficult to meet even the low end of the yearly guidance as the X demand has been soft.

So you are expecting 55,000 model S and 10,000 Model X?

 

[JamesTSLA]

Here is the truth of Tesla demand issue Website wait times for delivery change
In other words, without demand constraints, Tesla can perform much better and stock will give much higher return to shareholders.

 

[Perfectlogic]

So you are expecting 55,000 model S and 10,000 Model X?

55k S and 15k X is my guess. Perhaps I would say 70-75k in total, I'm sure Tesla will do all they can within reason to boost demand if they are on track to miss the guidance very significantly. I don't think the market would take too kindly to even a 75k figure. I also think Tesla really needs to sell 100k+ X/S with current pricing to show any kind of significant profit from X/S operations which I think the market would appreciate coming soon as Tesla has been promising it for a while now.

 

[30seconds]

55k S and 15k X is my guess. Perhaps I would say 70-75k in total, I'm sure Tesla will do all they can within reason to boost demand if they are on track to miss the guidance very significantly.

OK then - 70-75K and since this is demand, not supply limited Telsa will be very aggressively pushing multiple levers to get there.

What demand levers? Sames ones as other car companies (mercedes & bmw)? TV & magazine ads? Big discounts at the end of the month/ quarter/ year? Rebates? Free premium package? It's already May and Telsa doesn't seem to be using any of these yet.

 

[Perfectlogic]

OK then - 70-75K and since this is demand, not supply limited Telsa will be very aggressively pushing multiple levers to get there.

What demand levers? Sames ones as other car companies (mercedes & bmw)? TV & magazine ads? Big discounts at the end of the month/ quarter/ year? Rebates? Free premium package? It's already May and Telsa doesn't seem to be using any of these yet.

They did just do a design refresh on the S, but as far as I know there hasn't been a spike in the waiting time, it did happen more than a month ago. Perhaps it took a while after the reveal for the new cars to hit showrooms so the demand spike will come soon, that is a possibility. Other than that I'm not sure if they cancelled the referral program (save a thousand dollars or something was it?), if so they could do that again. I guess it would be surprising if they suddenly came up with a TV commercial, I wonder how the market would react to that. If they have something up their sleeve I believe they will reveal that soon as it doesn't look like to me that they have enough demand to fill the 2k/week production capacity available from the end of Q2.

 

[electracity]

A couple of bad quarters is a great buying opportunity. As long as Tesla get into significant model 3 production with enough cash, the SP ends up at the same place regardless of missing guidance this year.

But as I have said in the past, I believe Tesla's planning a sale/deal with the MX into an Uber-like service. This would be announced when the production queue was no longer full. The incremental cost of adding say 300 cars/week is not much when there is no opportunity cost of loss sales .

 

[Papafox]

Perfectlogic, it's after 2am in Denmark. Hang it up and get some sleep.