Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

Clearly, this thread is a safe space, only positive posts here that makes you feel good about your investment. NO BEARS ALLOWED. Perhaps we should start marking bearish posts with a trigger warning.

It's a very simple concept, we now have a specific thread to discuss the "D" word. If you are actually interested in discussing that topic do it there. We have many threads devoted to many other specific topics where they can be hashed out in detail. One would think you would be happy that something you seem so passionate about has it's own thread.

 

[electracity]

tesla now issued more than 8000 X production vins, more than 2900 X sig vins and around 100 X founder vins

lots lots US X holders, all asia and EU production X holders even don't have vins, and lots lots potential customers are waitting test driving

You said this year's X demand only 15000????!!!

How many X's do you think they are capable of building this year? 25K? What do you estimate will be the average X build rate for Q2?

 

[McMuggets]

I would say that any demand concerns should belong here as long as it isn't just some reiteration of the same argument over and over again (which it has been, and thus the creation of the demand thread) without any new reasoning. As a short-term TSLA forum, a new tid-bit of demand information needs to be allowed to be posted here. I would hate to miss some piece of news or whispers about demand growth or loss because the "D" word is deemed banned from conversation in this thread.

The above being said, it is obvious to myself at least that demand so far is not an issue. Anecdotal evidence, though not as reliable according to some, shows that people in Canada at least still have quite a wait time. Website wait times aren't accurate depictions of what really happens on the ground. For instance, I do not personally know one owner as of yet who hasn't gotten their Model S later than their anticipated timeframe. Also, the disappearance of CPO's offered in Canada shows people are buying these cars robustly. I did a check last week for a buddy of mine for a CPO, and there were a grand total of zero. That's right...they are all sold or unavailable due to some other reason. And lastly, a friend just couldn't wait for his Model S a few months ago and ended up buying the one right out of the Tesla store that was on display. The Tesla store even then couldn't give him the car as they needed another for display and couldn't just use the one or two they had for test-drives. So my friend had to wait 3 weeks just to buy the car off the showroom floor. You telling me that they have a demand issue? No way.

 

[McMuggets]

Would like to update that as of today, there are no CPO's available in all of Canada according to the Tesla website. There are three showroom models available, but all only 90D's. In all of Calgary the only Model S I can find for private sale is an old 2013 S85 with 40,000kms on it, for $80,000CAD being sold at a Lexus dealership.

Oh and the Calgary store showroom model is gone now, replaced with a new Model S with new front bumper design.

 

[AlMc]

So, the shareholder's meeting is less than two weeks away and we all hope to get some additional info and possible positive catalysts from it. I am not going this year but did go last year. I was highly disappointed in the amount of time we were given to ask questions, moderation of the time spent on each answer and 'highjacking' of part of the Q and A by the vegan group (no offense intended but it did not result in good info about many things TM for the benefit of the few).

I sent in my concerns about how the whole thing was run and received assurances that there would be changes implemented.

Any long time forum members attending? If so, we might want to start a new thread about potential questions.

 

[skljsd329832]

Hi Chaps (and Chap-ettes). Julian Cox here.

There appears to have been a technical fault with my @Julian Cox TMC account which means that I could see my messages but nobody else could - so I have been typing away unbeknown that nobody could read what I wrote (since May 13th). Lucky for some shorts perhaps - but not for the people I respect and want to talk to.

According to Daniel, the TMC webmaster, Doug is apparently traveling, Audubon B said he's digging snow in Alaska and can't fix it.

This would not matter very much except for this:

Many people here both TMC members and guests will be well aware that I have been calling for a declining stock since $255 and basically for patience going Long. On Thursday morning (19th May) Pre-Market I wrote a message emphatically ending that call and calling instead for a reversal to the upside - and I followed that up three times during the day. Basically BUY, and Like guys, not kidding here, Just sayin' - while watching the SP go to $207.28 and soar to $218 AH and on to $220 the day after. This IMO is an enduring reversal, not a flash in the pan.

Except NOBODY COULD SEE IT (and they still can't). Mostly what they could see is a circular debate between some respected long term members and two or three boilerplate merchants of doubt.

The following post - that I presume has been pushed through by the webmaster explains the situation:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Here is the graph from that post (note that from May 19th the call is most assuredly Green and Up! until further notice) :

 

[sub]

Regarding the demand debate, the shorts/bears can't understand the difference between "orders" and "demand".

I appreciate the respected members here trying to dumb it down for them but they are only interested in confirmation bias.

 

[Lessmog]

Hi Chaps (and Chap-ettes). Julian Cox here.

There appears to have been a technical fault with my @Julian Cox TMC account which means that I could see my messages but nobody else could - so I have been typing away unbeknown that nobody could read what I wrote (since May 13th). Lucky for some shorts perhaps - but not for the people I respect and want to talk to.

According to Daniel, the TMC webmaster, Doug is apparently traveling, Audubon B said he's digging snow in Alaska and can't fix it.

This would not matter very much except for this:

Many people here both TMC members and guests will be well aware that I have been calling for a declining stock since $255 and basically for patience going Long. On Thursday morning (19th May) Pre-Market I wrote a message emphatically ending that call and calling instead for a reversal to the upside - and I followed that up three times during the day. Basically BUY, and Like guys, not kidding here, Just sayin' - while watching the SP go to $207.28 and soar to $218 AH and on to $220 the day after. This IMO is an enduring reversal, not a flash in the pan.

Except NOBODY COULD SEE IT (and they still can't). Mostly what they could see is a circular debate between some respected long term members and two or three boilerplate merchants of doubt.

The following post - that I presume has been pushed through by the webmaster explains the situation:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Here is the graph from that post (note that from May 19th the call is most assuredly Green and Up! until further notice) :

View attachment 177513

Oh carp. Big thankyou, all demand mechants! >:-/

Now, this glitch didn't hurt me as I had no funds availabe anyway, but others may well have suffered material harm from lack of important info.

BTW, Julian, yuo may want to correct a tpyo in yur location?

 

[skljsd329832]

Oh carp. Big thankyou, all demand mechants! >:-/

Now, this glitch didn't hurt me as I had no funds availabe anyway, but others may well have suffered material harm from lack of important info.

BTW, Julian, yuo may want to correct a tpyo in yur location?

Druly convected. Rust rawdring correction two writ ramose bike kit were praned.

 

[AlMc]

Oh carp. Big thankyou, all demand mechants! >:-/

Now, this glitch didn't hurt me as I had no funds availabe anyway, but others may well have suffered material harm from lack of important info.

BTW, Julian, yuo may want to correct a tpyo in yur location?

It is good to have all the information available to make informed choices about our investment dollars. I believe most people here have great respect for a number of members, including Curt Rentz, who also called 'probable bottom/reversal of trend' at $206 a couple days ago.
So, hopefully no material harm for those that frequent this forum.

Personally, as stated before, I have been buying DITM J 17 and 18 $150s by DCA over the past 2-3 weeks with cash and by selling some trading stock to create more leverage. IIRC, Papfox also employs this strategy.

I see that Kenliles has been employing his strategy that is similar in that he is selling trading stock to fund OTM Leaps with his roll over plan. I employed this before and it does have a higher risk/higher reward potential than mine and does provide the opportunity for some good returns.

As is customary, employ whatever strategy you feel comfortable with and look at the different risk/reward situations. Realize most here have lost money employing our strategies from time to time.

If I reinvented the wheel I would be on a beach on 'AlMc's Island'

Good luck to all longs.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Regarding the demand debate, the shorts/bears can't understand the difference between "orders" and "demand".

I appreciate the respected members here trying to dumb it down for them but they are only interested in confirmation bias.

Current demand = orders. If someone wants the product under current circumstances they will place an order. The discussion regarding waiting times has nothing to do with future demand. Is that dumbed down enough for you?

 

[kenliles]

If I reinvented the wheel I would be on a beach on 'AlMc's Island'

From AIMc's Island

 

[BornToFly]

Current demand = orders. If someone wants the product under current circumstances they will place an order. The discussion regarding waiting times has nothing to do with future demand. Is that dumbed down enough for you?

Tesla has a certain production capability. They increase or decrease demand to keep demand/orders in line with their production capability. If they needed more demand, they would have Model Xs in all the stores, they would bring back their referral program, they would tap into new countries/markets, and they would start advertising. Do you understand now?

 

[Perfectlogic]

Tesla has a certain production capability. They increase or decrease demand to keep demand/orders in line with their production capability. If they needed more demand, they would have Model Xs in all the stores, they would bring back their referral program, they would tap into new countries/markets, and they would start advertising. Do you understand now?

Every company can sell their car $1000 cheaper and raise demand and other companies actually make money on their cars today. Right now Tesla is already selling the Model S for cheap compared to their total COGS, they don't have much leeway. Do you understand why Ford doesn't just cut all their prices in half and take over the entire market?

 

[Lessmog]

Tesla has a certain production capability. They increase or decrease demand to keep demand/orders in line with their production capability. If they needed more demand, they would have Model Xs in all the stores, they would bring back their referral program, they would tap into new countries/markets, and they would start advertising. Do you understand now?

Every company can sell their car $1000 cheaper and raise demand and other companies actually make money on their cars today. Right now Tesla is already selling the Model S for cheap compared to their total COGS, they don't have much leeway. Do you understand why Ford doesn't just cut all their prices in half and take over the entire market?

Please guys, just put a sock in it. You don't have to eat it.

 

[electracity]

Every company can sell their car $1000 cheaper and raise demand and other companies actually make money on their cars today. Right now Tesla is already selling the Model S for cheap compared to their total COGS, they don't have much leeway. Do you understand why Ford doesn't just cut all their prices in half and take over the entire market?

Tesla found small price elasticity, which is why they moved upmarket with the model S after release. You argument applies to near commodity ICE cars.

If Tesla buyers had been highly sensitive to price, we probably would not be here talking about Tesla.

 

[BornToFly]

Every company can sell their car $1000 cheaper and raise demand and other companies actually make money on their cars today. Right now Tesla is already selling the Model S for cheap compared to their total COGS, they don't have much leeway. Do you understand why Ford doesn't just cut all their prices in half and take over the entire market?

Mature companies like Ford and GM aren't spending a lot of money to expand. They aren't building stores, superchargers, new factories, etc., and yet they are barely hanging on. GM's net profit is around 1-2% of sales. A small decline in sales or car prices and they are in trouble. Tesla is growing as fast as possible, so they have to loose money now, but in 10 years, Tesla will be doing well financially, where as GM will probably be bankrupt again. I own TSLA stock but would never own GM stock. Like everyone has said before me, I like to hear Bear arguments that are new and hold water. You "Perfectlogic" is flawed. Now you are just wasting my time, and I have no choice but to put you on my ignore list as well. Goodbye.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Tesla found small price elasticity, which is why they moved upmarket with the model S after release. You argument applies to near commodity ICE cars.

If Tesla buyers had been highly sensitive to price, we probably would not be here talking about Tesla.

Are you saying that $1000 more or less doesn't matter for demand? If that is the case I wonder why they aren't selling the car at a pricepoint where they can make money.

 

[sub]

Current demand = orders. If someone wants the product under current circumstances they will place an order. The discussion regarding waiting times has nothing to do with future demand. Is that dumbed down enough for you?

And you are trying to use current orders as though they are a canary in a coal mine. If you want to argue current "orders" are whatever they are I don't think you would get much push back from others. However, you're trying to use current orders as a sign that this is the cap on Current/future demand. Tesla can pull levers to increase orders, they choose not to. Why is that?

Simple concept that you can't seem to follow.

It baffles me why shorties come on this forum and waste so much of their time talking down Tesla/TSLA. I couldn't care less about GM, F, or any other ice manufacturer because they all sell junk and IMO they are doomed. Instead of fantasizing about Tesla's unavoidable down fall, go buy some GM stock and enjoy your riches. Good luck.

Edit - typos

 

[Perfectlogic]

Mature companies like Ford and GM aren't spending a lot of money to expand. They aren't building stores, superchargers, new factories, etc., and yet they are barely hanging on. GM's net profit is around 1-2% of sales. A small decline in sales or car prices and they are in trouble. Tesla is growing as fast as possible, so they have to loose money now, but in 10 years, Tesla will be doing well financially, where as GM will probably be bankrupt again. I own TSLA stock but would never own GM stock. Like everyone has said before me, I like to hear Bear arguments that are new and hold water. You "Perfectlogic" is flawed. Now you are just wasting my time, and I have no choice but to put you on my ignore list as well. Goodbye.

Even if Tesla didn't invest in future growth they would only break even on their cars and that is after the X has ramped up some, that is what you and many people here don't seem to understand. We can only hope that the Model 3 will turn Tesla profitable early in the ramp, otherwise the dilution from new capital raises will be huge.