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I was reading that a Selling Stampede lasts between 17-25 days. If it is what we are going through now, we'll just have to hold on for another few sessions.
Today looks again like it's sales with nice discounts.
On friday with the same set-up I was saying I wouldn't be surprised if we'd go below 190. I was relieved it was actually not that bad.
Today looks again like it's sales with nice discounts.
On friday with the same set-up I was saying I wouldn't be surprised if we'd go below 190. I was relieved it was actually not that bad.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
In my opinion, this would be an incredibly bad pairs trade. Downside in oil stocks is marginal at this juncture, but Tesla sits at over 200 a share. What would a professional prefer to short? Both are nice and liquid.
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Well, TSLA has a fee rate of 13.36% so I don't know how easy it is to find many shares to short TSLA at this point. So I'm not sure if there is an obvious answer there. The oil companies are not heavily shorted and have very low fee rates.
jhm
Well-Known Member
$329 Billion Invested in Clean Energy in 2015 | OilPrice.com
So the oil investor website OilPrice.com is covering the $329B renewable investment story. The author specifically juxtaposes this with a recent report that some $380B of oil and gas projects have been cancelled. This is a monumental shift, and it raises the question of where the $380B of would oil investment will go. Will some of it actually flow into renewables? Even if just 10% of this energy capital found its way into renewables, that would be a huge boost.
At any rate, even diehard oil and gas investors are starting to recognize that the money is flowing out of fossils and into renewables, a trend that is not likely to reverse.
So the oil investor website OilPrice.com is covering the $329B renewable investment story. The author specifically juxtaposes this with a recent report that some $380B of oil and gas projects have been cancelled. This is a monumental shift, and it raises the question of where the $380B of would oil investment will go. Will some of it actually flow into renewables? Even if just 10% of this energy capital found its way into renewables, that would be a huge boost.
At any rate, even diehard oil and gas investors are starting to recognize that the money is flowing out of fossils and into renewables, a trend that is not likely to reverse.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
If you actually like this stock, keep nibbling on every 10 dollar pullback. My PT is $150.00. No reasons it won't take out last years low upon a re-test.
dreamingof3
Member
So here we sit 3 weeks into the trading year. The markets and TSLA are in complete disarray. We are down 9.53 today as I type this. I think there are genuinely scared people dumping this name. I'm wondering when the big money is going to come in and pick up the pieces. I am now convinced we are heading to a 52 week low before we reverse. Break out the tums people :-(
So in any event that is not a bad price target and totally reachable in the current macro environment. It has nothing to do with TSLA stock.
But one thing I think a lot of people don't understand is where the market stands historically. I love the site SP 500 PE Ratio. If you go there the first thing you will see is the S&P 500 is at a PE of 19.5. The mean PE historically is 15.57. That means we have 4 points to go or 20%. So if the market just corrects to the mean PE during this downturn then TSLA will easily drop another 25%.
Of course, there is no guarantee we will get down there so if you believe in the company my only message is to hold on strong. There are catalysts this year that can pull TSLA ahead of the market and it might start happening before the market gets that low and/or the market may never get that low.
Extra note: there have been a lot of rationalizations as to why the current market should be ahead of the mean. One reason is there have been a lot of new rules to GAAP accounting to make it more conservative. For example, stock-based compensation is now considered a cost. Another metric is that earnings yield is higher than AAA bonds. If you expect the fed to stop raising rates then this is something that will keep stocks up.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So let's do the math on this $329B investment into renewable energy. This included 64 GW of wind and 57 GW of solar. New wind offers about 8 capacity hour per day and solar about 4. So together they produce about 740 GWh/day. This competes with fossil fuels used in production of electricity, offsetting about 10.33 MMBtu energy input per MWh of electricity output. Thus, these renewable offset demand for 7,644,200 MMBtu/d or 1.32 million Barrels of Oil Equivalent (MBoe) per day.
Given that the oil glut is about 1.2 MBoe/d, it should not be dismissed that wind and solar added 1.32 MBoe/d to the global energy supply.
Oil and gas investors have had to nix $380B in projects chasing 27 billion Boe over the life of the investments. That is an investment rate of $14/Boe. By comparison, the wind and solar investment has an average useful life of about 20 year. So this represents a reserve value of about 9.6 billion Boe. This is an investment rate of $34/Boe. To compare this to the $14/Boe investment rate for oil and gas, on must recognize that the renewable investment requires very little operating cost to produce final form energy, but the oil and gas investment is just the exploration and drilling costs. There are substantially more investments and operation costs to actually extracting the oil and gas, transporting to refiners/distributors, refining, and finally generating power. The cost per barrel of oil is just the cost of getting oil to maket and that marginal cost for new oil projects is around $60/Boe, whence $14/Boe investments are nixed because the expected price of oil is below $60/b or whatever critical threshold.
So renewables are clear providing a more economical way to add to energy reserves than the oil and gas projects which have been cancelled. This is why renewables are winning. The marginal investment to keep growing the supply of oil and gas is not pencilling out due to the low price of oil, while renewables bring final form energy to market at a lower cost. Moreover, the present oil glut of 1.2mb/d may in fact be a consequence of the failure of energy investors to comprehend that a $329B investment in renewable energy brings 1.32 MBoe/d of supply to market. Until oil and gas investors figure this out, the tendency will be to over invest in fossils. This miscalibration alone is sufficient to perpetuate the glut.
But wait, there's more... renewables are growing about 30% per year. So 2016 very well could see renewables pour on 1.7 MBoe/d of supply, and another 2.2 MBoe/d in 2017. This is the freight train that oil investors ignore to their peril.
Given that the oil glut is about 1.2 MBoe/d, it should not be dismissed that wind and solar added 1.32 MBoe/d to the global energy supply.
Oil and gas investors have had to nix $380B in projects chasing 27 billion Boe over the life of the investments. That is an investment rate of $14/Boe. By comparison, the wind and solar investment has an average useful life of about 20 year. So this represents a reserve value of about 9.6 billion Boe. This is an investment rate of $34/Boe. To compare this to the $14/Boe investment rate for oil and gas, on must recognize that the renewable investment requires very little operating cost to produce final form energy, but the oil and gas investment is just the exploration and drilling costs. There are substantially more investments and operation costs to actually extracting the oil and gas, transporting to refiners/distributors, refining, and finally generating power. The cost per barrel of oil is just the cost of getting oil to maket and that marginal cost for new oil projects is around $60/Boe, whence $14/Boe investments are nixed because the expected price of oil is below $60/b or whatever critical threshold.
So renewables are clear providing a more economical way to add to energy reserves than the oil and gas projects which have been cancelled. This is why renewables are winning. The marginal investment to keep growing the supply of oil and gas is not pencilling out due to the low price of oil, while renewables bring final form energy to market at a lower cost. Moreover, the present oil glut of 1.2mb/d may in fact be a consequence of the failure of energy investors to comprehend that a $329B investment in renewable energy brings 1.32 MBoe/d of supply to market. Until oil and gas investors figure this out, the tendency will be to over invest in fossils. This miscalibration alone is sufficient to perpetuate the glut.
But wait, there's more... renewables are growing about 30% per year. So 2016 very well could see renewables pour on 1.7 MBoe/d of supply, and another 2.2 MBoe/d in 2017. This is the freight train that oil investors ignore to their peril.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
With the foreign exchange rate being so high, nobody is going to be buying Teslas in Canada. It will make the Model 3 unaffordable in many countries.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Cults have never ended well in the past. This is unfortunate for those who are not rich Tesla shareholders. I am not here to make fun of good people losing money. That is the #1 rule of traders. Don't make fun of those losing money. I am just so damn mad at the cheerleaders who cannot see the reality of what is going on here.
Krugerrand
Meow
1) Price of Tesla cars will be going down for Canadians once Gigafactory batteries are being made for said cars because then American content more than exceeds minimum requirement to eliminate duty. You know this, so why you conveniently fail to mention that or keep it in mind is interesting.
2) The exchange rate is a never ending changing metric. You also know this.
3) While many people will be unable to afford the Model 3, a SIGNIFICANT number of people WILL be able to afford the 3 that could not afford the S or X, which btw are selling like hotcakes. Again you know this.
Tesla is selling plenty of Model S cars in Canada. Tell us something useful if you're going to be beating the bear drum today.
dreamingof3
Member
Can you bash on yahoo message boards? those seem like more of your type. You love showing up on big down days pretending you are a potential long but we all know your true intentions.
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