Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MonroeSS]

I hate to sound negative. But what is being produced is largely irrelevant in the context of what is being delivered. Secondly, what makes you think it is "minor QC" issues, maybe other than just hoping that is the case? We are talking about 1000s of cars piled up, with 100s more getting added to the pile every week. Doesn't make any sense. Either production is lower than what we think it is or the pile of cars is just getting worse. None of them bode well.

Minor or not I believe the issue(IF there was an issue) is either resolved or Tesla is confident it will be resolved very soon. I doubt they would open up configuration to China unless they are sure they can build and ship them to China within the expected delivery time frame. If there was still an unresolved issue or an issue without clear path to a solution, I would imagine Tesla would hold off opening configuration to China esp after how one owner reacted to long delays.

To your point, I agree that produced vs delivered is irrelevant, although... what if the part in question is a 5 minute task per car that can be installed in the holding area? Tesla can keep building Xs without the part that can be quickly installed later rather than not building any Xs at all. It is better to keep building them without a single part as long as the part can be installed without putting the finished Xs back on the assembly line.

 

[Renaud]

Wow, talking about volatility...the price swings are just incredible.
The thing is completely oversold, that cannot last...

When was the last time we had so much negativity here on the forum, on the analysts side and all this without ANY news from the company?
With the absence of news or only partial information, gossips from people (SC rep told me, I saw, etc...) people can only speculate, and usually, they will come up with the worst scenario ever, and people can be imaginative. And then, most of the time, the truth will be very simple and far away from the wildest fantasies of the most pessimistic ones.

And of course this happens at the worst moment, when oil is falling and when the macro is worrying...
Painful to watch, I agree...

By the way Max Pain 185 this week.

 

[Julian Cox]

I hate to sound negative. But what is being produced is largely irrelevant in the context of what is being delivered. Secondly, what makes you think it is "minor QC" issues, maybe other than just hoping that is the case? We are talking about 1000s of cars piled up, with 100s more getting added to the pile every week. Doesn't make any sense. Either production is lower than what we think it is or the pile of cars is just getting worse. None of them bode well.

What is the point of hating sounding negative and then sounding negative.

I like to be realistic (which by the way sits at the mid point between optimism and pessimism if it sits on that scale at all).

Model X is guided for an exponential ramp. That means slow in the beginning, fast at the end. So apparently some very early Model X needs some extra QA & QC at service centers prior to delivery.

Which part of that is not accounted for by the thin edge of a very large wedge called an exponential ramp? If there was no contingency for such a thing, it would have been a step-form ramp.

Just one other beef. Papafox mentioned it. Any and all analyst / short claptrap about Model X demand is by definition asinine - given approximately $4 billion of standing demand for the Model X.

Previous guidance - no major obstacles to Model X ramp. Latest guidance - Model X up to production speed parity with Model S production by Q2.

Excellent - oh and the guy that said that has full access to insider information and bought the dip adding $100 million of shares.

So now that we know that approximately 30 million shares are sold short at least to some extent on the basis of low Model X demand (which is by definition asinine) we can also deduce that not betting against these shorts is by definition, asinine.

 

[sub]

I hate to sound negative. But what is being produced is largely irrelevant in the context of what is being delivered. Secondly, what makes you think it is "minor QC" issues, maybe other than just hoping that is the case? We are talking about 1000s of cars piled up, with 100s more getting added to the pile every week. Doesn't make any sense. Either production is lower than what we think it is or the pile of cars is just getting worse. None of them bode well.

I assume it's minor because we already have model x's that have been delivered and I haven't seen anything mentioned on the forum that could be considered a "major" issue with any of them. If there was a major issue there wouldn't be any on the road right now.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

If this slide finishes above 182 and reverses to form green candle, or doji, or anything of a sort, that's actually good. One more pattern of reversal, whether that is doji, red inside day etc...

I wouldn't write off today until about 3:15pm

Someone said that TSLA takes stairs up and elevator down. This is actually a statement applying to market.
TSLA is a rare stock known to occasionally take elevator up too, not just stairs.

 

[Julian Cox]

Hmm, no doubt about the positive things that are about to happen.

But I feel it would have been wise for Tesla to communicate about the Model-X roll-out and the current status 'a bit' better. Now everybody is looking for clues and speculating, often not from a positive angle.
This results in big SP swings, specially with all the macro uncertainty going on, that are good for no one except those who want to influence the SP.

No no no. First you let the shorts fill the edge of the petri dish. Then you nuke them with a $30-$50 gap-up in overnight trading. How else do you expect to trap them for a squeeze?

These benighted shorts are roaming the internet adding LOLs to any mention of Tesla profits. There is every chance that Tesla will turn in 4 quarters of profit in a row starting with Q4 2015.

What you are suggesting is that Tesla gives them fair warning little by little. This is not how Tesla operates.

 

[eloder]

Tesla is pissing off too many people, most of them owners, and I believe Tesla's downward spiral may have begun.

Let's dump Musk. That 97% customer satisfaction / loyalty rate is clearly not high enough.

People who ignored the warning signs of "Not profitable until 2020" and "I don't care about the stock price" and "I don't care about short-term movements of the stock price" only have themselves to blame when the same manager isn't profitable, and is making long-term decisions that cause short-term stock price harm. Just keep in mind that statements like that will make short-term trading incredibly rough and volatile, no matter what the long-term vision is.

Not to mention, most of this is still macro and doesn't even have the slightest bit of blame to attach to Tesla. IF Tesla delivered a bunch of X's with significant problems, they would have had far worse press and drops than they do now.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

No no no. First you let the shorts fill the edge of the petri dish. Then you nuke them with a $30-$50 gap-up in overnight trading. How else do you expect to trap them for a squeeze?

These benighted shorts are roaming the internet adding LOLs to any mention of Tesla profits. There is every chance that Tesla will turn in 4 quarters of profit in a row starting with Q4 2015.

What you are suggesting is that Tesla gives them fair warning little by little. This is not how Tesla operates.

While I wouldn't quite use such an epic language, I agree there is a decent chance for shock and awe at earnings call. The lower we are going into the call, the better chance there are.

We all want to be loved. New Tesla CFO is not different. He will want to awe us all with his first appearance. This could have been planned together with Deepak, the whole transition plan, to 'shed' legacy of misses (Deepak) and introduce new 'force', new CFO. I wouldn't be surprised that Deepak decided to fall on the sword, in the interest of TSLA.

Who knows, but if Tesla can do what Julian suggests, I'm sure they'll do it, and that will be a great time to own TSLA.

 

[MonroeSS]

Sigh.


When have earnings not disappointed?

Well let's see. That would be every single time that Tesla has been in sales mode rather than development mode and we're just moving into sales mode again, except this time with three product lines in parallel and one in development. Not one selling and three in development.

A real sheep follower would manage in reaction to the barking of the loudest idiots in the mob. A real leader drives through a program like Model X in-spite of them. That way the idiots eat crow in the end. See how that works?

Probably not. Anyway, drum-roll. Serious servings of crow coming right up.

A good leader will be open to criticism. A good leader will not surround himself with 'yes men'. A good leader would also want to be stopped by his subordinates if any of his decisions seem reckless to them. I seriously doubt this is true for Tesla. One of my early posts on this site was hoping for the X to have been kept simpler, cheaper and sooner to market. Being 1.5 years late may not cause any problems in the long term but at least in theory here is what the Model X launched in late 2015 has to deal with compared to a Model X launched in July 2014.

1. Oil prices are at a decade low 2. Euro, CAD, NOK and CYN are 20 to 30% lower 3. US stock market declining 4. China stock market also suffering 5. No access to Denmark tax credits 6. End of California tax credit for most buyers 7. Are FWD doors a liability? I personally would feel very uncomfortable using them when people are watching. I would probably feel the same pulling up in a Lambo or a Ferrari(cars desired by many) so it may just be me and I could be in the minority.

 

[dreamingof3]

The elevator is now down $13. Please tell me this is the bottom floor. Julian, I am totally on board with the 50 dollar gap higher after ER! People are clearly panicked with the recent performance and dumping at what I hope is the bottom. I never understood the sell after 100 point drop strategy. SMH

 

[FluxCap]

Once again I bought some weekly calls, as I think this is selling is overdone and we will bounce. Not a long-term play, just picking up nickels catching some intraday swings.

 

[AlMc]

Once again I bought some weekly calls, as I think this is selling is overdone and we will bounce. Not a long-term play, just picking up nickels catching some intraday swings.

I have been successful (for a change) with strangles because I have NO idea which way the stock will move just that when it does it moves 2-3% at a time.

 

[austinEV]

Once again I bought some weekly calls, as I think this is selling is overdone and we will bounce. Not a long-term play, just picking up nickels catching some intraday swings.

Same.

 

[ibcs]

My prediction was that the bottom was at $185.91 instead of the current price near max pain. I'll be surprised if we don't see a small bounce around 3:30 PM. I'm sure a lot of stops are getting filled today!

 

[dreamingof3]

This may be the day certain longs throw in the towel and I'm sure shorts will be there to continue the push down. I thought -8 was overdone now at -14.50 shows how much I know. This looks certain to touch 52 low maybe today

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Same.

Same - weekly options.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

The perception is out there that Tesla screwed the pooch with regards to Model X and the supplier lawsuit just reinforces that feeling. Just look at what the respectable analysts are doing - cutting their stock price, telling investors to stay away from the stock, etc. Tesla BARELY hit their own downwardly revised numbers, but only by rushing end-of-quarter deliveries. Judging by the number of QC issues from December deliveries discussed at TMC, it seems like Tesla was making a desperate attempt to push cars out of the factory that did not live up to even the most basic QC. And they came in just a few hundred above the low end of their downwardly revised guidance.

We can make whatever excuses we want for Tesla because we love Tesla. However, the bottom line is that Tesla has not been moving in a positive direction for some time as witnessed by the opinions and outcries of the owners in this forum. The negative opinions are coming from the longtime faithful who are seeing Tesla change for the worse, not better. I want Tesla to get back to being that upstart car company that constantly amazed, rarely disappointed, and where there was good news around every corner. Unfortunately, I haven't felt that way since late 2014.

 

[ibcs]

Bought 200 shares hopefully to sell within a day or so on a bounce.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Wow, talking about volatility...the price swings are just incredible.
The thing is completely oversold, that cannot last...

When was the last time we had so much negativity here on the forum, on the analysts side and all this without ANY news from the company?
With the absence of news or only partial information, gossips from people (SC rep told me, I saw, etc...) people can only speculate, and usually, they will come up with the worst scenario ever, and people can be imaginative. And then, most of the time, the truth will be very simple and far away from the wildest fantasies of the most pessimistic ones.

And of course this happens at the worst moment, when oil is falling and when the macro is worrying...
Painful to watch, I agree...

By the way Max Pain 185 this week.

Today's Tesla feels a lot like yesterday's Commodore.

 

[Noble Ninja]

I'm willing to bet that the Pacific Crest piece only came out today after they realized yesterday's Mortan Stanley piece didn't work to push the stock down (instead it went up towards the $200 mark with intra-day high of 199.52) and wanted to suppress the stock from breaking $200 with a piece this morning. Pacific Crest likely had wrote the report a while ago in the back burner just waiting for the right timing to be used (today). Just like Morgan Stanley, why they cannot wait until after ER to publish a report is quite suspect.