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flankspeed8
Member
doh! I totally wasn't even thinking and forgot the Power Wall. Was thinking EV only.
Yes, that will certainly be a threat, but very few % will be able to go totally off grid and the PUC's are ensuring favorable grid-connect fees. Someone is going to have to maintain the grid.
Tesla Energy is far more about PowerPack than PowerWall. And the biggest impact of PowerWall will be felt in markets outside the U.S. I think far too many people look at PowerWall in the U.S. when thinking about Tesla Energy.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I remember the Model S ramp very well. People waited for months, there was anger that Tesla delivered some production cars before Signature cars, and everyone eagerly awaited postings in the "Model S sightings" thread. Slow and Chaos are my lasting impressions.
I'd hoped that Tesla would learn & improve from the Model S ramp experience, but I was mostly mistaken.
Tesla is doing much better on initial quality, based on what I'm reading in the Model X forum. The ramp is going about as badly, despite the company's statements last year that the ramp would be faster than the S ramp. As of now, I'm guessing that Q1 '16 could have good Model X numbers if the bottlenecks are cleared soon (2 months to go in quarter), but it could take until Q2 for the X production to reach capacity. Short term traders should prepare for immense pain from the uncertainty. Long term investors just need patience.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Plastics Industry Latest Victim Of Low Oil Prices | OilPrice.com
Here's a curious peice. LG Chem is abandoning a plant to build out a plastics plant in Kazakhstan due to the low price of oil. The plant would have source natural gas as feedstock, but with the low price of oil I guess it is just cheaper to source oil for plastic. So this is good news in terms of stabilizing the price of oil. Apparently it is low enough relative to natural gas not to switch.
But I think the more interesting thing hear is that LG Chem does not see a fuel switching play as a growth opportunity. Instead they are much more interested in batteries both for cars and homes/grids. So this says something powerful about renewable energy and electric vehicles.
The fuel switching game is not worth playing. Jump forward to renewables and EVs!
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And the transmission and distribution grid becomes nonessential as well.
Here's a curious peice. LG Chem is abandoning a plant to build out a plastics plant in Kazakhstan due to the low price of oil. The plant would have source natural gas as feedstock, but with the low price of oil I guess it is just cheaper to source oil for plastic. So this is good news in terms of stabilizing the price of oil. Apparently it is low enough relative to natural gas not to switch.
But I think the more interesting thing hear is that LG Chem does not see a fuel switching play as a growth opportunity. Instead they are much more interested in batteries both for cars and homes/grids. So this says something powerful about renewable energy and electric vehicles.
The fuel switching game is not worth playing. Jump forward to renewables and EVs!
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And the transmission and distribution grid becomes nonessential as well.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
There is some good news on the Model X front (with pics! :biggrin
: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/61982-Picked-up-my-Model-X-Sig-today
Just some reassurance that product is being delivered, even if the pace isn't as quick as we expected or liked.
: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/61982-Picked-up-my-Model-X-Sig-todayJust some reassurance that product is being delivered, even if the pace isn't as quick as we expected or liked.
everman
Member
I believe this is incorrect, due to first principles theory. Yes, the doors were probably a headache to design, and also involved a costly design process. Manufacturing is an entirely different thing.
Elon would say, "Boil it down to its fundamental elements. It consists of iron, aluminum, steel, copper wiring, electronic sensors, glass. How do we get those things, and assemble them into this design we so painstakingly developed?"
The door is not fundamentally expensive. It's not made of gold or titanium. It's hinges, drive motor, posts, wiring, sensors and some stamped panels. These things probably cost $1,000 in finished parts, and much less as raw materials. Elon will then focus on assembling those molecules for less and less cost over time.
What I think you're experiencing is actually a result of their appeal. They are WORTH $10,000-$15,000, but don't cost nearly that much. Bingo, margin boost.
Krugerrand
Meow
Mistakes are part of life. They have to be made to get it right in the end. And even with those mistakes, they've come all this way. Mistakes make them stronger.
There is nothing to fear but fear itself.
jhm
Well-Known Member
This will give you some perspective on where things are headed. Australia is the postcard from the future.
Garnaut – time to write down value of power grids : Renew Economy
There is this general misconception that ratepayers need transmission grids capable of moving electricity over vast multistate regions and that ratepayers are obligated to pay for this. But in reality it is the centralized power producers that need transmission services to get their product to market. With distributed solar only local distribution is really needed.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Disagree. He could probably use someone to share some of the workload, but not the pressure. The more people criticize and say it can't be done, the more determined and focused he gets.
Logically, he's likely just not met someone he trusts for that position. How do you know he hasn't already thought about it and even been looking for someone? Answer: You don't, but you've made an assumption.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Actually better than that. Initial cars delivered locally in case issues. This car delivered in the eastThere is some good news on the Model X front (with pics! :biggrin
Just some reassurance that product is being delivered, even if the pace isn't as quick as we expected or liked.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Hey guys. Been away for a while. I heard there was a sale so came back to load up.
A few words before I step back into the shadows, I get that people are upset about the X ramp; but, the assumption that a simpler design would have allowed for us to ramp production 2 years earlier ignores the history. Tesla was battery constrained during that time period. Every additional X built would have taken away a S delivery and that would actually hurt not help (more S is financially better than mixed S and X if the total is the same). Many of us discussed this at length during that time, as the first signs of delay were coming out. We were pleased with the delay.
When the X was first debuted, they thought that the limits of S demand were 20k per year. They needed a second car ready in time to pick up the growth when S sales leveled off. TM delivered on the order of 20k in Q4 alone, so clearly this assumption was dead wrong. An "on-time" delivery of the X from a shareholder point of view was NOT desirable. The decision to shift resources to ramping up the S was the right one. Furthermore, the decision to decompose certain features of the X (like dual motor AWD) and create even higher margin S variants was the right one (more profit for each available battery).
Now, I'm not going to say that the X isn't late, and everything is just fine. Personally, I pegged the beginning of this past summer as the optimum time for X deliveries to start. I was a little bummed by the delay to Sept. and annoyed at how the year closed out, but at this point I'm only worried about 6 months worth of lost sales, not years. If they can get their act together and get ramped up, 6 months of delay/slow deliveries will make no material difference.
Also, all stocks that I own are getting slaughtered. I think if you take that into account, along with TSLA's high beta, and tack on some added red for recent poor execution, and analysts piling on, the price action isn't ridiculous. Oh, it sucks, but it isn't completely looney.
The question is what to do now. I feel for those of you trapped in calls without much time to wait for resolution. I've been there, I know that sucks. I also understand that it is hard to view this decline as a sale when you have no more cash to spend. That sucks too. But, for me, I agree with comments made recently by another member: Elon often misses his projected dates, but he always does what he says he is going to do. I think the X situation is a point in time problem. They'll fix it and we'll get this train back on the rails and headed in the right direction.
So, if you accept that as your thesis too, and you have cash you are able and willing to risk, then this is nothing but a chance to accumulate. I bought some today, and I'll buy more and more if the decline continues.
A few words before I step back into the shadows, I get that people are upset about the X ramp; but, the assumption that a simpler design would have allowed for us to ramp production 2 years earlier ignores the history. Tesla was battery constrained during that time period. Every additional X built would have taken away a S delivery and that would actually hurt not help (more S is financially better than mixed S and X if the total is the same). Many of us discussed this at length during that time, as the first signs of delay were coming out. We were pleased with the delay.
When the X was first debuted, they thought that the limits of S demand were 20k per year. They needed a second car ready in time to pick up the growth when S sales leveled off. TM delivered on the order of 20k in Q4 alone, so clearly this assumption was dead wrong. An "on-time" delivery of the X from a shareholder point of view was NOT desirable. The decision to shift resources to ramping up the S was the right one. Furthermore, the decision to decompose certain features of the X (like dual motor AWD) and create even higher margin S variants was the right one (more profit for each available battery).
Now, I'm not going to say that the X isn't late, and everything is just fine. Personally, I pegged the beginning of this past summer as the optimum time for X deliveries to start. I was a little bummed by the delay to Sept. and annoyed at how the year closed out, but at this point I'm only worried about 6 months worth of lost sales, not years. If they can get their act together and get ramped up, 6 months of delay/slow deliveries will make no material difference.
Also, all stocks that I own are getting slaughtered. I think if you take that into account, along with TSLA's high beta, and tack on some added red for recent poor execution, and analysts piling on, the price action isn't ridiculous. Oh, it sucks, but it isn't completely looney.
The question is what to do now. I feel for those of you trapped in calls without much time to wait for resolution. I've been there, I know that sucks. I also understand that it is hard to view this decline as a sale when you have no more cash to spend. That sucks too. But, for me, I agree with comments made recently by another member: Elon often misses his projected dates, but he always does what he says he is going to do. I think the X situation is a point in time problem. They'll fix it and we'll get this train back on the rails and headed in the right direction.
So, if you accept that as your thesis too, and you have cash you are able and willing to risk, then this is nothing but a chance to accumulate. I bought some today, and I'll buy more and more if the decline continues.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
By "pressure" I meant workload: the pressure of having a growing pile of items to deal with and having to make an increasing number of decisions as the business grows. Elon appears to be an overwhelmingly internally driven person and I doubt that he has the time or inclination to care very much if any about what the critics of Tesla are saying.
No, I asked a question.
There are many possible answers, but I am curious as to why Tesla's top management structure is only Elon and JB.
You've made an assumption that I made an assumption.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Now is a good time for Elon to dedicate all his time to Tesla.
Why? Because failure of TSLA will bring down both spacex and Solar city. Therefore the current best allocation of time is a full push in Tesla, even though it is not what he is most interested in doing. Also, Elon needs a Tim Cook for tesla. A dark strategist that is not mired by perceptions of hope and good will. Someone who can be the scape goat and execute the things that people will hate you for.
Anyway, happy chinese new years. And stop the falling knife without me will ya?
Why? Because failure of TSLA will bring down both spacex and Solar city. Therefore the current best allocation of time is a full push in Tesla, even though it is not what he is most interested in doing. Also, Elon needs a Tim Cook for tesla. A dark strategist that is not mired by perceptions of hope and good will. Someone who can be the scape goat and execute the things that people will hate you for.
Anyway, happy chinese new years. And stop the falling knife without me will ya?
Model X Arrived in Dubai
Vin 346 Delivery
Picked up my Model X Sig today
Production VIN 25x on its way to Florida
Some recently delivery activities in model X forum. One of the key reasons for the severe drop in 2016 is the fear of model X production failure. If TM can prove it can ramp up even slowly plus resolve all major issues, then SP should hold the ground.
Vin 346 Delivery
Picked up my Model X Sig today
Production VIN 25x on its way to Florida
Some recently delivery activities in model X forum. One of the key reasons for the severe drop in 2016 is the fear of model X production failure. If TM can prove it can ramp up even slowly plus resolve all major issues, then SP should hold the ground.
Not according to Elon Musk. In his view the end game is that world total energy production which is roughly split in three equal parts: heating, transportation, and electricity can be replaced by solar, with about third of total required solar generation being grid connected. This leaves current requirement for power grid capacity roughly intact. Grid will require modernization, but grid infrastructure will not be stranded. Fossil generation infrastructure eventually will be.
A lot of these things have already been priced in for some time.
Model S demand and production have been great for a long time. Model X reservations have been growing for a long time. I don't think anybody really expected customer not to like the Model X, but so far we are talking about early adopters and there have not been many main stream reviews. We have also seen a few people cancel their reservations, not that it matters much, but it's also clear that the Model X isn't the SUV for everyone. GF has been priced in for a long time and has been on time for a long time, so again there isn't anything new. Governments have been standing behind renewable energy for a long time, if at all then EV initiatives seem to be going away rather than new ones added and that what is really reflected in Tesla's sales (e.g. Germany is really behind the away from fossil and to renewable, but it doesn't do **** if people are not willing to pay for it.)
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