I'm seeing a bid of 153 EUO ($171.25) which is about where it settled during AH trading.
At any rate, it's low volume and ultimately not a good indicator of what the day ahead holds.
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I'm seeing a bid of 153 EUO ($171.25) which is about where it settled during AH trading.
At any rate, it's low volume and ultimately not a good indicator of what the day ahead holds.
Well, I don't think I said anything about wasting time. Development so far has probably not been focused on production and quality control of parts, but specifications, design and engineering.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Hi,
It just dawned on me that I believe that this is probably enough by itself to boost the SP after the ERCC. I believe it's a safe assumption that the automated production line is setup to produce at least as many packs as their existing car packs production line. The fact that it was rolling in mid December means two months of production, and I believe they don't need to be concerned with deliveries vs sales, as they do with cars. The only thing that I think could mess this up is cell availability. No idea how much or how long but I believe its almost a slam dunk. Warning, no such thing as a slam dunk. Please don't trade with money you can't afford to lose...
I definitely plan to buy some calls tomorrow. Question: I've never purchased calls for an ER. Tentatively planning on Feb 19. If anyone recommends Feb 12, or Feb 26 instead I'd like to hear your reasons.
Good Luck everyone!
TSLA stated in the last ER, that TE production had been pushed from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 because they moved production from hand production in Fremont to an automated production line at the GF. Check the date below :biggrin::
It just dawned on me that I believe that this is probably enough by itself to boost the SP after the ERCC. I believe it's a safe assumption that the automated production line is setup to produce at least as many packs as their existing car packs production line. The fact that it was rolling in mid December means two months of production, and I believe they don't need to be concerned with deliveries vs sales, as they do with cars. The only thing that I think could mess this up is cell availability. No idea how much or how long but I believe its almost a slam dunk. Warning, no such thing as a slam dunk. Please don't trade with money you can't afford to lose...
I definitely plan to buy some calls tomorrow. Question: I've never purchased calls for an ER. Tentatively planning on Feb 19. If anyone recommends Feb 12, or Feb 26 instead I'd like to hear your reasons.
Good Luck everyone!
TSLA stated in the last ER, that TE production had been pushed from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 because they moved production from hand production in Fremont to an automated production line at the GF. Check the date below :biggrin::
Gerardf
Active Member
Yes, it must have been done at least partly parallel to the MX. I feel they might be close to the Beta prototype already, the Q3-ER stated:
As of September 30, 2015, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype
- Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles; and
- Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype
http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-15-9741&CIK=1318605
The 100.000 aggregate production was reached in December 2015.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I understand. You need to move your view from a qualitative one (yes, there will be a grid) to a quantitative one (the required capacity of a grid will grow or fall X percent). Consider a grid where 1/3 is generated where it is consumed and 2/3 storage is behind-the-meter. Let's also hold constant total annual consumption of power, which can easily be adjusted with some baseline growth rate. So relative to the grid requirements where there were essentially no DERs, how much transmission capacity is now needed? Right off the bat on a total volume basis the legacy grid now had 1/3 less energy to move each year. So the required capacity is about 1/3 less. But in actually the required capacity is driven much more by peak loads experienced through the year than average load. So both distributed solar and massive behind-the-meter storage levels out most of the gap from peak load to average load. So the peak load requirements easily fall in half. So I figure that the required capacity of the grid is 1/3 to 1/2 below the legacy required capacity. So, yes, there is a grid, but if it is not ruthlessly scaled back as solar and batteries come online, it could be sitting on 50% to 100% overcapacity. That would be a costly burden upon ratepayer to have to keep paying for so much overcapacity.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Bought some puts today at the open, already green, happy
I have the impression that we need a really big catalyst to reverse the current down trend, I think not gonna happen before ER.
Happy investing everybody!
I have the impression that we need a really big catalyst to reverse the current down trend, I think not gonna happen before ER.
Happy investing everybody!
Bought some puts today at the open, already green, happy
I have the impression that we need a really big catalyst to reverse the current down trend, I think not gonna happen before ER.
Happy investing everybody!
And I've bought more shares. To me this is a screaming buy opportunity. TSLA went downwards on overall China panicking and fossil fuel market poker games affecting macro.
Slow X ramp is a non-issue. We've had that before with the S. I know, Elon said with the X they're going to be faster with the ramp. Obviously the X is tricky to build and even harder to finish. So, I reckon that might affect the 2020 production target of 500,000 cars by a year or so - who cares? GF is on track and apparently ahead if schefule. Powerwalls and Powerpacks are essentially sold out this year (from what we heard in the last CCs). Model 3 reservations will bring in cash from the deposits (and I expect about 100,000 reservations to be made by the end of the year - easily, because market size vis-a-vis X/S is about factor 5) and it will pull in more money from big pocketed investors.
And I'm betting on a cash flow surprise wrt Q4 earnings as well. But, sure, I'm a Tesla bull (probably fan boy, too...)
Show me the model X can be produced in volume, and the rest is irrelevant .
thats my working hypothesis .
Uncertainty means risk, risk means price concession.
Rationalizations can lead to self deception, just be aware.
2020 production is not the issue , it's model X , in my view.
I too can be very wrong.
thats my working hypothesis .
Uncertainty means risk, risk means price concession.
Rationalizations can lead to self deception, just be aware.
2020 production is not the issue , it's model X , in my view.
I too can be very wrong.
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Think about this:
BMW produced 16k and then 24k of the i3 in the 2nd and 3rd year of the cars production. Whatever issues Tesla has with the Model X, they are likely to make >20k this year and >24k next year at the minimum. Most probably > 40k next year. That would make the Model X the fastest ramped alternative fuel vehicle in history. The current title holder is the Model S.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I think long term your shares might be ok. What makes you think that we will not see more downside at least till next ER?
According to slow X ramp, I don't think it is important what I think. It looks like the market is not happy with delivering an X to the son of Will Smith and only a des others, hell that would have been a nice sale for one of the early roadsters some years ago. But this is 2016 and gen 2 platform, Jaden Smith getting an X is not a very strong sign to the market that TM is on track with their Secret Masterplan. They need to show the market they are on track with the Secret Masterplan to show TSLA is still a growth stock. If they don't, no problem for TM but I would expect TSLA to decline further.
Strong positive catalyst would not be enormous number of gen 3 deposits, that is a statement from potential customers. What we need for TSLA is something like a driveable ready gen 3 beta prototype to assure investors that TSLA is worth what it currently is, otherwise I could imagine some more investors selling some more shares.
BTW, still long term bull, short term I do not see a catalyst big enough for $250 next month.
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"... Are likely to ...", you are talking about the future, damn I wish it was a fact!!!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Maoing buying and positively giddy, I'd say that's a bottom signal if there ever was one.
Well, first I'm a long-term investor and I'm happy to continue to pile up shares at the bottoms. I'm with maoing that TSLA is oversold and I'd even go further to say we've hit the bottom for 2016 because TSLA mainly dropped (together with the whole market) on macro issues (China, crude oil, "decarbonisation" of investment funds, etc). The slow MX ramp is to me as an investor of TM a sign that they really do care about delivering the best product they can while ramping up at historically high rates as has been mentioned here today, too.
I think Wall Street might try to hold the stock price at the current level until ER because some of the big players bought in or piled up above 200 USD and thus even strikingly bad news from ER wouldn't hit it to dramatic lows below 150 dollars. And I'm hopeful this ER and CC will turn TSLA around.
dreamingof3
Member
Stop selling people. Jeez when is this hammering going to end. Testing 170 again for God knows why. As I type we now are tanking down 6. Awesome (sarcasm)
dreamingof3
Member
Thanks! Please come to the Troy strawberry festival car show so I can see your car!
Let me throw this in here to that discussion:
Assuming they reach full production volumes of X by the end of Q1 (and Elon said last week in France they are on track - we`ll know more after the ER of course), there will be 191 workdays of the year left. 1 week summer shutdown as usual still leaves 186 workdays, or a little over 37 weeks. At the low end of 800 Xes per week x 37 weeks, that`s 30k Model X plus whatever they produced in Q1. Therefore, leaving some contingency for end of the year production only delivered in January 2017, it is not unreasonable to expect 30k X deliveries this year. Only 22k Model X would mean full production volume slipping into late q2 or early q3 - I don`t see why we need to be that pessimistic.
Can you believe this bs?
UBS analysts Colin Langan and Eddie Hsieh see three risks for Tesla Motors ( TSLA) heading into earnings:
#1 Rising SG&A and R&D costs pose risk to 2016 EPS
The focus in Q4 will be on Tesla's '16 outlook. One key risk is SG&A & R&D. Historically these costs have been volatile, ramping up significantly in '14. These costs will likely continue to accelerate ahead of the high volume Model 3 launch.
#2 Expect downside to +75% y/y deliveries in 2016
Based on prior guidance of 1.6-1.8k vehicles/week in '16, Tesla projects total shipments to increase from 50.6k in 2015 to 88.4k (mid-point) in 2016, +75% y/y. We expect 2016 deliveries at the low-end guidance as Model X production ramp appears to be progressing slower than expected (prelim Q4 results indicated 238/week in the last week of 2015 vs. management's prior guide of several hundred/week by end of 2015). We are cutting our target shipments for 2016 to 84k. Given the little known details of the Model 3 so far, we see the March reveal of the car as a potential catalyst. However, given Tesla's history of delayed launches, we expect delays to the current late-2017 launch timing. Additionally, the mass-market EV segment is becoming increasingly crowded with the introduction of the Chevy Bolt this year. Together with low gas prices, we believe there is significant downside to Tesla's target 500k shipments by '20.
#3 Stationary storage headwinds persist
In Q2, Tesla guided to storage sales of $40-50m in Q4, $400-500m in '16, and $2-5bn in '17. 2016 production is reportedly "sold out," suggesting that Tesla will likely hit the Q4 & 2016 targets. This is consistent with our belief that early, "green" consumers are driving up initial orders. However, we still struggle to see storage demand continuing to grow at this pace given low energy prices, slow initial adoption from utilities given costs, & lack of demand outside of green consumers. We also remain cautious about storage margins given competition.
Tesla is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 10.
Shares of Tesla Motors have dropped 2.2% to $171.49 at 5:25 p.m. today in after-hours trading today. It gained 1.1% during market hours today.
UBS analysts Colin Langan and Eddie Hsieh see three risks for Tesla Motors ( TSLA) heading into earnings:
#1 Rising SG&A and R&D costs pose risk to 2016 EPS
The focus in Q4 will be on Tesla's '16 outlook. One key risk is SG&A & R&D. Historically these costs have been volatile, ramping up significantly in '14. These costs will likely continue to accelerate ahead of the high volume Model 3 launch.
#2 Expect downside to +75% y/y deliveries in 2016
Based on prior guidance of 1.6-1.8k vehicles/week in '16, Tesla projects total shipments to increase from 50.6k in 2015 to 88.4k (mid-point) in 2016, +75% y/y. We expect 2016 deliveries at the low-end guidance as Model X production ramp appears to be progressing slower than expected (prelim Q4 results indicated 238/week in the last week of 2015 vs. management's prior guide of several hundred/week by end of 2015). We are cutting our target shipments for 2016 to 84k. Given the little known details of the Model 3 so far, we see the March reveal of the car as a potential catalyst. However, given Tesla's history of delayed launches, we expect delays to the current late-2017 launch timing. Additionally, the mass-market EV segment is becoming increasingly crowded with the introduction of the Chevy Bolt this year. Together with low gas prices, we believe there is significant downside to Tesla's target 500k shipments by '20.
#3 Stationary storage headwinds persist
In Q2, Tesla guided to storage sales of $40-50m in Q4, $400-500m in '16, and $2-5bn in '17. 2016 production is reportedly "sold out," suggesting that Tesla will likely hit the Q4 & 2016 targets. This is consistent with our belief that early, "green" consumers are driving up initial orders. However, we still struggle to see storage demand continuing to grow at this pace given low energy prices, slow initial adoption from utilities given costs, & lack of demand outside of green consumers. We also remain cautious about storage margins given competition.
Tesla is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 10.
Shares of Tesla Motors have dropped 2.2% to $171.49 at 5:25 p.m. today in after-hours trading today. It gained 1.1% during market hours today.
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