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jesselivenomore
Member
I appreciate that; as many have said here already, we need all the thoughtful ideas we can get from all perspectives.
I hope I speak for most of the other bulls on TMC when I say the venom is aimed at people who write articles/posts that are untrue or intentionally misleading or FUD-fermenting, not simply at all people who aren't bulls. Sometimes the distinction gets blurred...
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'd like to see the media pick up that Elon excercised another huge block of stock options. 660k shares dated 2/8
mmd
Active Member
I'm surprised Tesla lawyers let Elon do that 2 days before ER! See esk8mw's post dated Jan 29th.
I was pretty surprised to see it too! As I said in one of those posts, exercising options is viewed differently than open market purchases or sales for these purposes. This is especially true when cash is used to cover the exercise price and taxes and the shares are held in full following exercise, as Elon has done. I'm guessing that's how they got comfortable.
i will also stress that there aren't hard and fast rules here, it's a judgment call. Oddly, some companies tend to give CEOs more leeway in this regard because the view is "well, when DOESNT a CEO have material non public info about the stock of the company he runs?" If you applied that rule strictly then top management could never trade in the stock.
They received 13k reservations in 2014, a growth of 75% of that number in 2015 would put the total reservations received in 2015 at around 21 000, making the numbers even more impossible. There is also the tracking available on this forum up until august (when they stopped publishing reservation sequence numbers) that was more consistent with 75% overall growth rather than 75% on top of the last year.
Very high Model X cancellations may indeed have been part of the picture. We underestimated them last year and we may underestimate them now. Yet, for Model S deposits to remain overall the same that would mean over 8000 cancellations. That's quite a bit.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yep! and quite frankly Elon wouldn't have excercised during quiet period if it was any kind of SEC restriction.
One thing I firmly believe about Elon Musk is is has the highest Ethical standards in his business practices. Throughly beyond reproach. He's in Tesla (and SpaceX and SolarCity) because he wants change the world for the better:
Namely: Sustainable transportation, cheap access to space/survival of humanity, sustainable Energy.
Anyone who doesn't believe these motivations from Musk is blind to his actions and intent.
Just caught up reading this thread. There are 2 items on the cc that haven't been discussed yet.
1. Jim Keller. Elon refused to answer if hiring Jim Keller would mean that Tesla would start designing their own chips. The refusal pretty much means they intend to do a chip design and hiring Jim Keller is probably a very good choice. Given Tesla's tendency to do the hard stuff themselves instead of outsourcing it to a third party because it gives them a competitive advantages, this probably means they want to build yet another insurmountable lead in autopilot features.
2. The timing of the gen 3 reveal is exactly the last day of q1. They probably want to show of the number of gen 3 reservations in the next cc.
1. Jim Keller. Elon refused to answer if hiring Jim Keller would mean that Tesla would start designing their own chips. The refusal pretty much means they intend to do a chip design and hiring Jim Keller is probably a very good choice. Given Tesla's tendency to do the hard stuff themselves instead of outsourcing it to a third party because it gives them a competitive advantages, this probably means they want to build yet another insurmountable lead in autopilot features.
2. The timing of the gen 3 reveal is exactly the last day of q1. They probably want to show of the number of gen 3 reservations in the next cc.
No signature edition for Model 3 and reservations begin Mar 31 in stores and April 1 online. $1,000 to reserve a Model 3.
Story here
We ought to have a prediction contest for the first week. The numbers are going to be ludicrous.
Consider what those reservation numbers will do to the stock price.
Story here
We ought to have a prediction contest for the first week. The numbers are going to be ludicrous.
Consider what those reservation numbers will do to the stock price.
With such a low refundable deposit, I'm calling the entire 2018 model 3 production will be reserved by the end of April.
Gerardf
Active Member
Trayloader: (not including your post here, as I realize some put you on their block list)
Do you have any proof for your statements ?
Basically you say is that what Tesla is stating in the Q4 ER filing is a lie. That is a serious accusation.
From the Form 8-K :
We are already seeing improvement from these efforts and we are now significantly increasing our Model X production throughout the balance of the quarter. We anticipate approaching a Model X production rate of 1,000 vehicles a week in Q2.
Do you have any proof for your statements ?
Basically you say is that what Tesla is stating in the Q4 ER filing is a lie. That is a serious accusation.
From the Form 8-K :
We are already seeing improvement from these efforts and we are now significantly increasing our Model X production throughout the balance of the quarter. We anticipate approaching a Model X production rate of 1,000 vehicles a week in Q2.
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everman
Member
Yes, this exactly! Elon has decided to draw the maximum number of reservations out, versus trying to find a balance of higher cash per reservation and shooting for a lower total quantity of reservations with which to enter initial production of the Model 3. This could still work out in his favor in terms of cash deposits if the demand reach becomes massive, while also adding the additional benefits of being able to tout incredible demand.
My prediction is 1M cars reserved by the time the first M3 is delivered to the first customer. Then as TM produces the first year of production (100,000?), another 150,000 reservations are placed.
The punchline is simple, I don't believe there will be a shorter waiting time than a year for this car for the next decade. This car will be the most in-demand ever made.
This was the first quarterly cc where they didn't specifically guide how many units would be produced and delivered in Q1. Their guidance for the first quarter was pretty vague and suggests that unless the Model X ramps up quickly, deliveries will be lower than Q4 2015.
Gerardf
Active Member
I'm not sure I follow. They said approximately 16,000 deliveries. That isn't specific enough for you?
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Just checking back in on the price action before going back to my celebrations. Pat on the back to everyone that we are not in the worst case scenario. Now, lets anxiously await our model 3. I don't know about you guys, but wanting to drive a 3 and Elon was why I supported TSLA.
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