Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ukland Wombat]

Could you please post the entire e-mail, please. I didn't recieve this in Europe. It's actually quite important news. My thoughs are naturally what do they mean, is it 1. earlier production or 2. quicker ramp up (or both)? Based on this info together with Elon's tweets I firmly expect them to change the 500.000 cars in 2020 target soon, maybe we'll have an official statement on this before Q2 ER.

Thanks Johan for asking and thanks DrJohnM for posting the email. The email presses all the right buttons (in my guess at how April might unfold).

I'm in the UK and so far I have NOT received this email (though I do receive many other emails from Tesla).

So my first thought was... perhaps the message of this email is going to be staggered...going out to different regions at different times so that Tesla can gauge its effect with more precision. This kind of knowledge may be useful in tuning Tesla messages to maximize reservations.

Edit] Afterthought...This email is favouring those who are already Tesla-aware and likely to be early adopters (otherwise Tesla wouldn't even have your email address) with an opportunity to spread the word among your circle of acquaintances before the masses find out what M3 is.

 

[Gerasimental]

Huge trade $3 below premarket average. Can anyone shed light on this? Those 3 trades combined are over $1m.

 

[Electrifying]

267 is pivotal high from Sept 25's pre-Model X reveal. IF we break 267 @ close, ATH @ 290 will be here in a blink of an eye. I am going to buy a few 270 weekly puts as protection in case of a bear attack but allow all my calls to ride the rocket higher (essentially a strangle).

 

[Ukland Wombat]

Thanks Johan for asking and thanks DrJohnM for posting the email. The email presses all the right buttons (in my guess at how April might unfold).

I'm in the UK and so far I have NOT received this email (though I do receive many other emails from Tesla).

So my first thought was... perhaps the message of this email is going to be staggered...going out to different regions at different times so that Tesla can gauge its effect with more precision. This kind of knowledge may be useful in tuning Tesla messages to maximize reservations.

Edit] Afterthought...This email is favouring those who are already Tesla-aware and likely to be early adopters (otherwise Tesla wouldn't even have your email address) with an opportunity to spread the word among your circle of acquaintances before the masses find out what M3 is.

Just updating my earlier information.

I received the Tesla email 2 mins ago!

So please disregard my first thought...my afterthought is still valid, though.

 

[Johan]

I'm sure they will aim to include some fair-use version of free for life Supercharging because that is the most aggressively competitive option. Personally I think $35K cars go mainly to working families with typical driving patterns - mostly commutes, school runs, local friends and entertainment venus with occasional trips a few times per year tops and much less predominately as a % (when compared to the Model S) to retirees with leisure time for non-stop road-trips and frequent visits to distant family members. It's probably fine to offer free for life Supercharging with some hard limits or a paywall for exceptional use patterns (Uber driving in the radius of a Supercharger for example).

Still smart not to lock in expectations (or set a competitive benchmark) at this stage - and clearly no need.

I agree the Supercharging for "free" i.e. included in the base price is the best selling point. All the way back to when Tesla had their little PR blunder with e-mails to people about local SC use I've been saying that with Model 3 they will need to implement some kind of Fair Use Policy related to Supercharging, which is really non-controversial and normal and when you think about it, the only people who would oppose a Fair Use Policy would be the people planning on abusing the SC network, while 99% of buyers should be happy for such a policy (protects their access to SuperChargers for their intended use pattern).

With regard to AP I would almost expect all the functions including the newest and most advanced ones with safety implications to be included in the base price but maybe not the pure convenience features. This is one of the obvious reasons they will build all cars with all the hardware, the other is ease of manufacturing and the third the potential for after-sale paid unlocking of features (at a higher price point than if you buy the car with all the features enabled).

With regard to today's price pre-market is still above yesterday's close and I suppose we're all eagerly awaiting Elon's tweet, although I'm probably putting too much faith in how much that number will influence today's price action.

 

[SteveG3]

Also from the e-mail, I would note the following:

Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

I read this that SC is built in but will be a purchase option to use. I picked up on the AP wording at the reveal, however, the SC wording is new to me.

I suspect that Tesla went into last Thursday with a plan for free SuperCharging, consistent with what Elon said on stage that night.

Friday as they discussed the ever increasing orders, they realized that demand was gapingly larger than supply and an effective $1-1.5K price hike (without changing the headline/politically sensitive $35K number) wouldn't stop them from being supply constrained for years. Within a day or so they changed the wording on the website to be unclear re whether SC is available for free or not, reflecting their own indecision as to not contradicting what Elon said on stage or making use of an opportunity to relieve otherwise thin margins on the base model in its initial years of production.

 

[austinEV]

Yes exactly on predictions.

Not entirely regards no need for Q2. It is one thing to show consumers (and bears) a shockingly gorgeous car for the money - it's quite another to show the bears shockingly gorgeous bottom-line fundamentals to go with it.

Never underestimate the power of skepticism, denial and vested disbelief in even the most predictable things that have never happened before. Naysayers (especially irate vested ones) never get reasonable they get silenced.

I think we need sock challenge 2.0. Pick a price and a date, post Q2 ER.

 

[Ulmo]

Also from the e-mail, I would note the following:

Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

I read this that SC is built in but will be a purchase option to use. I picked up on the AP wording at the reveal, however, the SC wording is new to me.

Making SC's free for the mid and low range market would very likely clog them and cause all sorts of problems. Tesla wants the option not to do this. The premium vehicles with 30% profit margin can go ahead and drink free juice, but the cheaper models that may have people with thinner margins all around and a higher need to "fight" for survival will be quicker to cause problems at SC's that are overrun. If it is a use-payment oriented network, market forces can allot and solve some congestion issues. I consider this move by Tesla a non-negative (I'm OK regarding their course on this because I consider it the correct course, but it's "better than bad").

 

[McMuggets]

Must say that I took some profits yesterday on the back of ridiculous strength. Core longterm shares are never touched as this thing goes higher and higher overall. Extra shares picked up during the great fall to $150 range are half sold by now. This thing can still jump to $290 before end of week if numbers today for Model 3 knock it out of the park. Never bad to take profits and wait for a pullback to rebuy when playing with trading shares. Congrats to all those who held on tight and downed more during the great fall of 2016!

 

[Tslynk67]

Up 3% in Frankfurt, flat on NASDAQ - go figure...

 

[tanner]

If I'm correct we still don't have wed model 3 reservation numbers?

 

[Johan]

Up 3% in Frankfurt, flat on NASDAQ - go figure...

Frankfurt closes before there are several hours left of trading on the Nasdaq. TSLA traded up on NASDAQ after Frankfurt closed yesterday. So when Frankfurt opened today it corrects immediatly to align til the NASDAQ close. The volume in Franfkurt is less than 1/1000th than on NASDAQ. It's Frankfurt following NASDAQ, never the other way around (regardless of time zones).

 

[Curt Renz]

If I'm correct we still don't have wed model 3 reservation numbers?

As appeared to be the case with the count for the first three days, I suspect they will again comb through the reservations to eliminate errors or duplications before revealing the number for the first full week. That may not be completed until sometime today, and perhaps not revealed until this evening.

 

[Norse]

Bought some weekly $275 calls. Isnt Elon supposed to tweet now?

 

[uselesslogin]

As appeared to be the case with the count for the first three days, I suspect they will again comb through the reservations to eliminate errors or duplications before revealing the number for the first full week. That may not be completed until this evening.

On Sunday he posted at 11:30am Pacific. I would expect before noon Pacific today - unless they decided to wait for after hours.

 

[SBenson]

By the way the above is exactly why I keep saying that Q3 following Q2 ER promises a perfect storm on a biblical scale for this stock and I think we will have the remainder of a hype cycle followed by a pull back in the summer to find an entry to ejoy massive SP gains with the kind of certainty that never happens on the stock market but once a century - thanks entirely to a bunch of shorts that are ill-equipped to believe it even if it were spelled out exactly as I have done.

So if I read you correctly, you imagine this bullish cycle topping out somewhere (ATH-ish?) resting back to some support level then hitting ATH's post Q2 ER?

Yes exactly on predictions.

I am struggling with this. Maybe we can discuss this a bit further.

Here is the calendar as I see it:

- Early May: Q2 delivery guidance comes as part of Q1 ER

- Early July: Q2 deliveries published

- Early Aug: Q2 ER, positive non-gaap eps, positive fcf

As soon as the delivery numbers (or guidance) is known, it is elementary math to figure out if there will be +eps, and +fcf or not.

Will market really wait all the way till early Aug for a rally? Given the very high short interest, I wonder if bulls will see blood in the water and start pushing the price up starting as early as from Q1 ER. I'm basically having a hard time seeing a pull back in between. Of course it can happen due to some unforeseen stuff. But does base case warrant it?

Also we need to factor in additional Elon PR stuff in this timeline. GF launch party? Model S refresh? Model X professional reviews?

I'm basically debating if I should get out of some short term plays, in the hopes of getting back in at a lower price, or just continue to ride on.

 

[tanner]

As appeared to be the case with the count for the first three days, I suspect they will again comb through the reservations to eliminate errors or duplications before revealing the number for the first full week. That may not be completed until sometime today, and perhaps not revealed until this evening.

I hope it's sometime earlier in the day today.

Does anyone think another hike today is possible? To the 270s maybe? It ALMOST hit that in pre-market today.

 

[Krugerrand]

With regard to AP I would almost expect all the functions including the newest and most advanced ones with safety implications to be included in the base price but maybe not the pure convenience features.

I'm pretty sure Musk already said that in the Model 3 reveal; AP safety features are standard.

 

[tanner]

[QUOTE="Johan, post: 1466205, member: 9170] With regard to AP I would almost expect all the functions including the newest and most advanced ones with safety implications to be included in the base price but maybe not the pure convenience features.

I'm pretty sure Musk already said that in the Model 3 reveal; AP safety features are standard.[/QUOTE]
Yes, he did.

 

[tanner]

Also, wow... It's really going down right now. Maybe 270s isn't possible.