Great Point. But as an alternative, could it be you purchase the "rights to use SC" independent of a specific vehicle, which then won't go with the car when you sell the car? I thought of this as a possible alternative program, where most Tesla owners will never purchase another non Tesla car. This way, you keep the initial purchase of "rights to use SC", and use it for all the Teslas you own currently and in the future. You have an App on your phone, and as you pull up to the SC station, you are recognized as a paid member of the SC network, and now you can plug in any one of your many Tesla cars you drive... They may even offer a family package, etc... I'm letting my imagination run wild, but you get the idea...
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Gerasimental
Member
I realise this is probably inconceivable to most people, but what if you don't have your phone with you?
Maybe we're all chipped by then, so no need for phones?
Or you actually have to get out of car and get fingerprint or retina scanned? I'm sure there will be a backup solution, just incase you forgot your phone(VERY UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN,
)
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Authorize from the screen in the car. The car is online (always cell coverage at SC locations) and knows its GPS position. Or local WiFi, like at the Service Centers. In fact probably no need for user input - could all be automated, perhaps just an "Accept" button (accept fee) to press after plugging in before the current starts flowing.
dc_h
Active Member
I'm not sure the source of confusion. Tesla is guiding for about 34,000 in the first half. They are, now planning, to close the year at 80 to 100k per year, or 74,000 to 84,000 cars. On the other hand, Elon said after five years they would rise from 2500 to 115,000 cars five years later. I did take the close at up to 2000 cars a week more seriously, and this does seem like a very quiet reset of delivery numbers for 2016, with more firm updates not likely until Q2 earnings.
Hope I am wrong and acknowledge Elon does some "Fed-speak" at times (Federal Reserve Chairmen are noted for oblique and conflicting statements).
Are we really talking about how to charge someone for a product? You know, this is a solved problem. I'm sure Tesla can solve this problem.
On the other hand, the Gigafactory news is probably the single biggest piece of news since the Model 3 reservations number. And yet, everyone seems numb to it.
On the other hand, the Gigafactory news is probably the single biggest piece of news since the Model 3 reservations number. And yet, everyone seems numb to it.
Definitely lots of unknowns at this stage.
I just thought it was worth noting that there is significant conservatism built into your margin assumptions (including almost a 50% price reduction), and the numbers still look very good.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Just listened to the production number statement. For some context the slide in the background is titled (he was talking about the numbers being added to the Tesla fleet during the year ):
"Tesla Fleet"
He says:
"We are hoping to sort of be at an annualized rate of somewhere between 80-100k cars a year by the end of this year."
I think it's clear that he meant that by the end of the year Tesla will have produced 80-100k cars per year. Not that their run rate would hit that number at the end of the year.
"Tesla Fleet"
He says:
"We are hoping to sort of be at an annualized rate of somewhere between 80-100k cars a year by the end of this year."
I think it's clear that he meant that by the end of the year Tesla will have produced 80-100k cars per year. Not that their run rate would hit that number at the end of the year.
I'm thinking the Gigafactory party in late July will be the event that really drives home the 3x increase in gigafactory production capabilities.
We already know that Tesla has used Silicon Valley lean management structure and innovative pacing, combined with first principles to revolutionize transportation. At the annual meeting yesterday, Elon was basically saying "We can be just as disruptive in the manufacturing space. Why should an engineer be focusing on eaking out a less-than-1% increase in motor efficiency when that same engineer could be improving a manufacturing process by 20%?" The reason why Elon is so stoked these days about Tesla is that he has found a new target for his genius: the manufacturing process. We as shareholders will benefit because Tesla is likely to succeed at radical improvements in the efficiency of automotive and battery manufacturing.
On a separate note, one person in this week's delivery threads stated that his tourguide mentioned that 3 shifts are in place at present. One should not take this statement as anything more than rumor, but it should be a clue that we seek verification of, because 3 shifts would indeed allow Tesla to meet or exceed Q2 and 2016 delivery targets.
dandurston
Member
On Model 3 Supercharging
I suspect Tesla won't use pay-per-use nor a single flat supercharger rate. Per per use is less elegent than I think Tesla wants this to be, while a single flat rate is a blunt approach that largely disconnects price from actual use. A lot of people want supercharger access without thinking about it, but they also don't want to pay an overly high rate where regular users are subsidizing the minority that Supercharge all the time. The solution is some type of tiered system where the cost is more proportional to use, but not as high resolution as pay-per-use where are there's additional downsides (e.g. complexity, billing etc.) and diminishing upside.
I think the approach Tesla is most likely to employ is a 3 brackets. I think the car will come with a very light amount of Supercharging access included, such as 250kWh/yr. This allows Tesla to claim that all cars come with some free Supercharging and it works well for buyers that wouldn't normally want supercharging but might need it in a pinch. Buyers could then upgrade to medium access (~1000kWh/yr for $1000) or heavy access (up to ~3000kWh/yr for $2500). There would still be a cap on heavy access because Tesla doesn't want taxi/Uber cars drawing 100kWh every day and driving up the costs for everyone else.
With that said, it would look bad if Tesla was cutting people off at the Superchargers because they hit their limit, but it would also look bad if Tesla was presenting a "upgrade for $1500 to continue your charge" notice during use. They could go to pay per use here, but I suspect the better approach is some form of a grace buffer (100kWh), after which you really do need to upgrade to keep using the system.
I suspect Tesla won't use pay-per-use nor a single flat supercharger rate. Per per use is less elegent than I think Tesla wants this to be, while a single flat rate is a blunt approach that largely disconnects price from actual use. A lot of people want supercharger access without thinking about it, but they also don't want to pay an overly high rate where regular users are subsidizing the minority that Supercharge all the time. The solution is some type of tiered system where the cost is more proportional to use, but not as high resolution as pay-per-use where are there's additional downsides (e.g. complexity, billing etc.) and diminishing upside.
I think the approach Tesla is most likely to employ is a 3 brackets. I think the car will come with a very light amount of Supercharging access included, such as 250kWh/yr. This allows Tesla to claim that all cars come with some free Supercharging and it works well for buyers that wouldn't normally want supercharging but might need it in a pinch. Buyers could then upgrade to medium access (~1000kWh/yr for $1000) or heavy access (up to ~3000kWh/yr for $2500). There would still be a cap on heavy access because Tesla doesn't want taxi/Uber cars drawing 100kWh every day and driving up the costs for everyone else.
With that said, it would look bad if Tesla was cutting people off at the Superchargers because they hit their limit, but it would also look bad if Tesla was presenting a "upgrade for $1500 to continue your charge" notice during use. They could go to pay per use here, but I suspect the better approach is some form of a grace buffer (100kWh), after which you really do need to upgrade to keep using the system.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Your posts kind of made sense in the beginning (simple, elegant solution) but as you explored the situations that will arise in the border zones between the tiers it showed that it will get messy and require pay per use anyway. So no, this won't be it IMO.
I think simply selling packages would do. Like 10/20/30 uses each package, to avoid credit card processing fee taking too much of the proceeds. Each use promises one session of charging at any Supercharger location.
I sold all of my TSLA stock and I am now ready to join the shorts.
OT: Just kidding. I sold because I am moving back to Australia and etrade told me I can't maintain my account. So I sold a few days ago and made enough for 2 Model 3 deposits .. Win/win
Will join back once I am down under. Shorts, Please keep fighting to lower the re-entry point for me.
OT: Just kidding. I sold because I am moving back to Australia and etrade told me I can't maintain my account. So I sold a few days ago and made enough for 2 Model 3 deposits .. Win/win
Will join back once I am down under. Shorts, Please keep fighting to lower the re-entry point for me.
This is the best you can do? Seriously?
Being a bull and fully invested, honestly I'm quite bummed out with all the hyperbolic long-term aspirations. It's like - stop talking, show us some real meat, then we talk. Given the price action, we can infer the market is feeling the same way.
Sure some of you crunched some numbers and came to conclusions. Not looking through microscope though, it appears that they are slipping the 2k/week end of Q2 target and moving it to Q4 end. So this more of - well, more talking of more long term stuff, while still continue to slip near term stuff.
X really ought to stop bleeding at some point. It's hard to gain confidence in all this new stuff, when X turned out to be what is has. All along Musk and JB have been *very* optimistic on X as a product, of their production capabilities, and of the ramp. Only when it became undeniable public knowledge that X is having issues, they came forward explaining themselves out.
In my view (or market's view for that matter), Elon and others will not be forthcoming of any issues with model 3 or gigafactory or anything else until unless it becomes an undeniable public knowledge. So anything they say now needs to be taken with a big grain of salt.
/rant
Feel free to put your own forecasts in writing to be judged on in the future: Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
Anyone who thinks it's a bad thing that Tesla will likely make SuperCharging an option, rather than a standard feature in the Model 3 is very wrong. My bet is all Model 3 will come with the tech built in, and anyone who buys a Model 3 will have the ability to pay for the Supercharger upgrade if they decide they need it. Additionally, I think Tesla said the base model will be ~60kwh, and will have ~250 miles of range, meaning Tesla has significantly improved the battery chemistry and range, meaning Supercharging shouldn't be necessary for a significant number of Model 3 buyers.
I'll also remind you that some Model S did come with the hardware for Supercharging, but required a paid upgrade to use it.
I'll also remind you that some Model S did come with the hardware for Supercharging, but required a paid upgrade to use it.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Got evidence?
Tesla didn't nag Bjørn Nyland for driving thousands of Supercharged miles for profit; on the contrary they gifted him a Model X.
Happily.
Would you rather them operate like Apple and not even officially speak about Gigafactory or Model3 until it's all done and ready to ship? Using private funding etc.
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