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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I agree with much of your premise. However, when you are trying to make up ground you go for the most expedient and least expensive route. You fill the gaps in later. Keep in mind that you don't need to have a charger everywhere to begin with, just one within range of the next charge IE 200 miles or w/e the assigned range. Also, if you travel to small towns across the country, the majority have dealerships for the major automakers. It would be difficult to imagine a national roll out of charging stations in short order if the needed capital is allocated.

Wrong. I just did a google search. There is a Porsche dealer in Salt Lake City, and nearby in Lehi. After that - nothing. Not even in Saint George. So putting chargers at the dealerships won't get me to Vegas in a Porsche. With my Tesla, on the other hand, lots of charging options along the way.
 
Wrong. I just did a google search. There is a Porsche dealer in Salt Lake City, and nearby in Lehi. After that - nothing. Not even in Saint George. So putting chargers at the dealerships won't get me to Vegas in a Porsche. With my Tesla, on the other hand, lots of charging options along the way.

Porsche is part of VW with many others so they would be able to charge at those dealers, too.

The long range charger build-out I don't think will be that expensive. They just need to kickstart it with a standard and after that third parties can jump in too. I think a bigger reason why little is happening is that they don't know how many cars they can sell so they calculate with a low number which means it is not worth doing the long range network, compete with their own high volume ICE cars and compete with Tesla. They basically have to change their investment models and take on a very big risk and they don't want to do that.

This problem will get worse once pre owned Model 3s are in circulation and even worse if Tesla is introducing an even cheaper model. They will come to a point were they have to calculate with very high volumes to make it worth doing but have no idea they can actually sell that many.
 
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Porsche is part of VW with many others so they would be able to charge at those dealers, too.

The long range charger build-out I don't think will be that expensive. They just need to kickstart it with a standard and after that third parties can jump in too. I think a bigger reason why little is happening is that they don't know how many cars they can sell so they calculate with a low number which means it is not worth doing the long range network, compete with their own high volume ICE cars and compete with Tesla. They basically have to change their investment models and take on a very big risk and they don't want to do that.

This problem will get worse once used Model 3s are in circulation and even worse if Tesla is introducing an even cheaper model. They will come to a point were they have to calculate with very high volumes to make it worth doing but have no idea they can actually sell that many.

This is a classic description of the innovator's dilemma.
 
This is a classic description of the innovator's dilemma.

Yeah, but they probably know the BEV market will be there in 2020. They just don't know how many cars they can sell of a particular model which they need to know given how they do investment decisions. So yeah, that scenario is probably also described in the book and goes under that term, too.

The failure I think is not that they misjudge global BEV demand, but that they have to change their decision process and take on loads of risk which they have never done before. Someone at those massive companies need to change this and produce for a demand they don't know they will have and in doing so probably will tank the stock for five+ years. It is unavoidable and the longer they wait the harder it will be.
 
Seeking Alpha, you'll discover a remarkable number of people who believe idiotically stupid things -- conspiracy theorists who think that Tesla is a fraud like Enron, for instance. As long as there's a large amount of money in the market with people who believe nonsense like that, we will see the stock price depressed.

The larger part of the market isn't quite that ignorant, but close to it. They haven't bothered to look into the details of the company and they make assumptions which are simply wrong. (The current most common wrong assumption is still "oh, the other carmakers will just make a solid Tesla competitor immediately", and the other most common one a few years ago was "electric cars can't be practical at any price point"; these were both obviously wrong to anyone who'd studied the situation, but most people in the markets didn't study the situation at all.) This is another source of serious underestimation of Tesla.
I was thinking of the current situation, rather than the Elon and JB are running a Ponzi Scheme theory. For example, Tesla announced the accelerated ramp and the price goes down!

X-ramp obviously. But if you compare the original S-ramp with the cute S-ramp and X-ramp nobody notices that Tesla's ability to produce cars has drastically improved! Last summer they updated their production line and have the capability to produce 1k S's and 1k X's per week. The issues are the complexity of the X and parts issues. In 2012-2013 they could not have ramped production to that extent. The complexity issues will not exist with the M3, and they can obviously improve the parts problems and they are bending over backwards to do that.

I was thinking while I was composing this post how handy the ignore function will be :D

I think that (if they are still here?) that "fairytales from fantasy land" (tftf) and "flawed logic" will probably respond with their usual gibberish.
 
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Tesla's J.B. Straubel Says Jeju Island's Carbon-Free Future Sets Example, Confirms 400,000 Model 3 Pre-Orders

So... Looks like Tesla finally reached 400K reservations, per JB, after the 373K confirmation(as of 5/15) a few weeks back. If they can maintain this >30K per month rate, it will be >610K Reservations by the end of the year, even without the 2nd reveal impact...

Nice!
Actually at the Code Conference, Musk also really quickly said 400k. It looked like he was about to give an accurate number but was kind of interrupted by one of the hosts, which was annoying.
 
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Green-mod Input:

I would mirror the venerable Audie's kudus to you all for the posting in recent days, especially during and since the annual meeting.

Apologies for my late work since Wednesday as a green-mod. Slowly I'm learning to start with the reports to deal with members' nudges in the right direction. They are reassigned to higher authority when needed. Only today since I'm in a hurry I've sometimes used the list function to get by inspection a picture of whose who and what. Unfortunately, I am sometimes unable to read thoroughly the really spectacular posts.:eek:

I do not have, nor do I want the power to move posts or threads. Sometimes I wish I had it, especially when I see food fights developing. I can warn members and have done so recently with what I view as a polite but that is, like today's, retrospective. Most helpful are the reports. Sometimes when you report something as off topic and I see some valuable exchanges on just a different subject, like the useful exchange related to the health dangers of some foods, they just belong somewhere else, like, an ecology thread. Others, like snippiness recently, I have warned without penalty those who triggered and responded. With the increased quality I hope the high volume continues but please use the reports and keep active your evaluation of your opinion of the post. That helps us all as we know whose opinions matter most, for good or ill.

It is always wise to repost or confine your post to the thread most likely. For my part I have learned my political posts are irritating some, though after teaching about politics for over fifty years at the university level, I probably know better than most the difference between partisan and non-partisan politics. If you ask or trigger something important, I might respond with a trigger to the macro or long term thread for a fuller response. Nonetheless, anything I post on those forums will not be linked here. That would be shilling.

Keep up the great work. With your help we can go toward homeostatic moderation.

Edit: Moderation even in moderation:).
 
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So we'll see if they let this OT pass due to the weekend... :) I just came across this recent video on Youtube about a guy pranking people on the road with a Model S on Autopilot, thinking no one is driving the car.

Now granted, the guy is stupid, this was dangerous and irresponsible, if for nothing else but scaring other drivers. Yet, I can't help to think, that once again we are so close to this, we forget how shocking the M3 will be to the general public, if "the obvious thing" is what we think it is. If, pending regulatory approvals, a Tesla can drive itself to pick up the owner, or they announce a Tesla owned autonomus Uber like service, a few of these videos will be all the demand lever they need (in fact probably way more).

Once again, this is kind of "normal" to us TMCers, but 99% of the world out there will be dropping their collective jaws.
 
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