Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Service announcement: Once again, please be careful about mixing up or using the terms "deliveries" and "demand" interchangeably.

Some of you are starting to repeat the usual mistake of equating deliveries with demand. Let's leave silliness like that to the mainstream media, shall we?

All we know, is that production and deliveries were below guidance. Tesla explains it with production ramp happening too late in the quarter, suggesting "things are on track now, demand supports elevated production levels of 2200-2400 cars per week for the rest of the year" (paraphrasing). They are also noting we have 5000 cars already finished but en route to customers - which is the highest ever number by a wide margin as far as i recall.

So which is it? Late but now steady production ramp or falling demand they are trying to lie about as long as they can cover with these tales? At the risk of sounding like a broken record: watch the "customer deposits" line in the Q2 ER. Subtract roughly 400 million (M3) and see if it increased or decreased compared to Q1.

Having said that, I'd be surprised if the market cared about this, so on the short term: brace for impact on Tuesday. This one may hurt.

 

[maoing]

Q1 deliveries: 14820
Tesla Delivers 14,820 Vehicles in Q1 2016; On Track for Full-Year Delivery Guidance (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Q2 deliveries: 14370
Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

I'm VERY surprised with the sequential drop in deliveries.

Now you know why TM issued secondary @ 215. EM knows much more than Main Street investors

 

[maoing]

If I try hard to see something positive here, they filled the pipeline all the way now so Q3 delivery numbers will be a big beat...

How? The Q3 guidance should at least 22-24K to meet low end annual target. Can they beat?

 

[tander]

So about 14k for the last two Quarters. If they deliver 9-11k by the end of this month and then another 2k by the earnings call next month...

 

[tander]

How? The Q3 guidance should at least 22-24K to meet low end annual target. Can they beat?

Batteries.

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla has invested money to improve production rates at Fremont but I wonder what can be done to improve delivery out of the factory door. It always seems to be this mad end of quarter rush, that is getting even more acute. They will be producing nearly twice as many cars this year compared to last, have they invested in the delivery side of things to keep up? Transportation, more service centers, more Tesla employees to deliver cars to customers etc.

 

[Papafox]

In order for the SCTY acquisition to be voted on favorably by big funds, TSLA will have to be trading at a reasonable level prior to the vote. Elon is going to have to show us something very positive within the next two months in order to get a thumbs up on the SCTY acquisiton. Hoping he does..

The good news is that with 2,000/week current production rate, Tesla is now producing vehicles at an annualized rate of 100,000 cars. That is double the average production rate of last year, which is no small achievement. With that rate and 5,000+ vehicles brought into Q3, the Q3 numbers will look good, but we won't get any real benefit from them until the early October release of deliveries.

Snugging up my seatbelt for next week, though.

 

[tinm]

Execution appears to continue to be the big risk with this investment. But how many quarters will long-term investors put up with suboptimal execution?

It's time the company hired a world-class COO to help with execution.

 

[geneclean55]

Regarding execution, I am very glad to see that Peter Hochholdinger has finally updated his LinkedIn page, to show that he is now actually at Tesla (since sometime in June).

 

[FredTMC]

Yep. Bloomberg write about the miss, doesn't even mention the 5,000+ cars in transit for delivery. What a surprise....

Yeah, i tweeted a reply to Dana Hulls Twitter page to let her know she missed an important fact.

 

[TSLADream]

This is definitely a big miss. I'm sure the earnings will not look good for Q2. Will the stock tank on Tuesday?

 

[Cattledog]

On the last call, or perhaps it was the annual meeting, Elon said they were looking to become the best manufacturing company in the world. Well, they'd better add world class talent in logistics, infrastructure and real estate acquisition because they need to change their game in less than two years to deliver 400K+ cars in 2018.

Or start negotiating with Autonation, Carmax, etc.

 

[ggies07]

I'm not worry about 2018 because I don't correlate M3 production with MS/MX. They are different cars, therefore different ball games. One is suppose to be made for ease of manufacturing and the other two are not.

So this was a swing and a miss? ok. Are they going to be producing and putting more EVs out on the road than last year? Yep, great then.

Carry on.....

 

[TSLADream]

I think what we missed in our forecast for Q2 is the timeline for delivery to customers. Even though production runs at @2K per week, the delivery is more at 1300 per week. I also see that they guided the total deliveries to less than 80K. The initial guidance was about 80K to 90K.

 

[geneclean55]

I'm not worry about 2018 because I don't correlate M3 production with MS/MX. They are different cars, therefore different ball games. One is suppose to be made for ease of manufacturing and the other two are not.

So this was a swing and a miss? ok. Are they going to be producing and putting more EVs out on the road than last year? Yep, great then.

Carry on.....

I don't think Cattledog is referring to manufacturing

 

[ggies07]

I don't think Cattledog is referring to manufacturing

thanks. just re-read it. damnit. haha. sorry Cattledog. I will just delete the quote because my statement still stands with regards to the numbers.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is definitely a big miss. I'm sure the earnings will not look good for Q2. Will the stock tank on Tuesday?

I am not concerned. The rollercoaster ride continues. Par for the course if your a TSLA investor. High risk, high reward. I didn't sell after the Solar City news and I won't be selling now. The bears were right on this one though. Enjoy the ride. Admission just slightly more expensive than Six Flags.

 

[VanE]

I don't know how, but clearly better ways need to be established around here to predict delivery numbers. Looking at insideEVs numbers, and the official numbers that came out from EU countries these past few days, the writing was already on the wall perhaps.

I agree, there had to be a way for us to know about this huge miss!

We have three more months to find out how to predict the results of this quarter more precise..

 

[tander]

Execution appears to continue to be the big risk with this investment. But how many quarters will long-term investors put up with suboptimal execution?

It's time the company hired a world-class COO to help with execution.

Considering their rate of growth both as a car manufacturer and as a company their execution has been pretty great, you don't want them to worry too much about the little stuff. If they stop growing or being competitive or if Musk wants to turn more focus above the earth, that's when to worry about execution. You have to remember quarterly numbers are like asking an ultra marathoner how much they will eat or drink every five miles when the race is two hundred. A bit more a bit less, doesn't matter as long as they are putting one foot in front of the other. But then again this is the short-term thread and trading sees the five mile numbers.

 

[TSLADream]

CNBC reporting is more optimistic. Definitely someone at Bloomberg is short Tesla.

Tesla cranks out 20% more cars in Q2, but struggles to deliver them

Should Tesla start guiding the production rate in the future if they don't have an handle on the deliveries yet. They have to improve their ways to deliver cars to customers quickly.

I am also surprised that Model S deliveries were less. Model S is the shining star for the company.