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RBC slashed EPS & their note did contain comments...
"Spak reiterated a Market Perform rating on the stock, and lowered his price target by $10, to $210, reflecting the fact that Tesla said second quarter deliveries were 14,370 vehicles, below its own guidance for 17,000 and consensus of 17,220.
Spak now expects the company to lose 86 cents in the second quarter, not 31 cents as he had estimated previously. For the full year he sees Tesla losing 73 cents, while he had modeled for a 30 cent profit before. His 2020 forecast goes to $10.55 from $11.90 prior."
RBC Cuts Tesla Target On Disappointing Q2 Vehicle Deliveries
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
We might hop over that max pain number and resistances on Monday next week in case we get some minor positive news or negative FUD dies down.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Any clues as to what caused the sudden run from 220 to 215 just few min ago, SCTY down a lot too
Edit: ok, maybe not that few minutes, but still, quite a drop on a day where the market in general is up. SCTY down 2.5% while TSLA only 0.5%, but was up 2% earlier
Edit: ok, maybe not that few minutes, but still, quite a drop on a day where the market in general is up. SCTY down 2.5% while TSLA only 0.5%, but was up 2% earlier
MartinAustin
Active Member
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Yeah, guess I was grilling outside longer than I thought and checking the view in IB it looked quite sudden, but the bins are 5 min ... Though the majority of the drop happened in Just a few bins from 217-215
Looking at the rather sharp downward jabs, followed by partial recoveries, following by more downward jabs, the trading looks to me to be the work of shorts trying to push TSLA lower. The good news is that their ammunition is limited.
This didn't help, from the RBC report:
"However, there could be a tipping point where continued missed targets lowers confidence in the Model 3 ramp."
Based on a recent tour of Tesla manufacturing, Spak wrote, "We believe Model X still has production issues."
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Hi,
I don't understand why you think that shorts try to push the SP down, or longs try to push it up. I don't believe that is an accurate description of the underlying facts. Maybe I'm missing something but it seems to me that buyers buy because they think the price will go up and go short because they believe it's going down. Not because they think they can push it up or down.
Max-pain manipulation is different but I don't believe that the people attempting to move the market for max-pain are shorts or longs They couldn't care less about the underlying SP, as long as they maximize their returns.
Your model might work well for you so I'm a little hesitant to post this, but even if it's working well for you, unless I'm missing something, it's not an accurate description of what is actually occurring.
This is in regard to the lending of shares to short sellers by TD Ameritrade clients. After receiving conflicting information from their telephone agents, I wrote to their message center. Below is the response. In a nutshell, it appears that even if one has a margin account, as long as the margin is not being used, the shares will not be lent to short sellers.
________________________________________________________
Curt Renz,
Thank you for contacting us. The current margin handbook has the following information on page 15. It can be found online by using the search box on the website.
"Pursuant to your margin agreement with us, when you have a debit balance in your margin account (whether it is as the result of margin purchases or through a loan for other purposes), TD Ameritrade, Inc. may lend your shares to other clients or broker/dealers, subject to certain limitations."
The current Client Agreement has the following:
"You are authorized to lend to yourself or others any securities you hold in my Account and to carry all securities lent as general loans. In connection with such loans, you may receive compensation and retain certain benefits that I will not be entitled to, such as interest on Collateral posted for such loans. In certain circumstances, such loans my limit my ability to exercise voting rights with respect to the securities lent. I may request that fully paid securities not be used in connection with short sales. I understand the in certain situations in which you have borrowed my securities, I may receive a "payment in lieu" of the dividend issued (see Margin Handbook for more details)."
Our procedure is such that if you do not have a debit your securities are fully paid for and not loaned. At this time your account does not have a debit. To insure that they would not be loaned you could either remove margin privileges from your account or not establish a debit. Not incurring a debit in your margin account would allow you to keep your option privileges and have the shares from being loaned.
If you have any questions please feel free to either email or call us at 888-871-9007.
Scott Cornett
Margin Risk Department
TD Ameritrade
________________________________________________________
Curt Renz,
Thank you for contacting us. The current margin handbook has the following information on page 15. It can be found online by using the search box on the website.
"Pursuant to your margin agreement with us, when you have a debit balance in your margin account (whether it is as the result of margin purchases or through a loan for other purposes), TD Ameritrade, Inc. may lend your shares to other clients or broker/dealers, subject to certain limitations."
The current Client Agreement has the following:
"You are authorized to lend to yourself or others any securities you hold in my Account and to carry all securities lent as general loans. In connection with such loans, you may receive compensation and retain certain benefits that I will not be entitled to, such as interest on Collateral posted for such loans. In certain circumstances, such loans my limit my ability to exercise voting rights with respect to the securities lent. I may request that fully paid securities not be used in connection with short sales. I understand the in certain situations in which you have borrowed my securities, I may receive a "payment in lieu" of the dividend issued (see Margin Handbook for more details)."
Our procedure is such that if you do not have a debit your securities are fully paid for and not loaned. At this time your account does not have a debit. To insure that they would not be loaned you could either remove margin privileges from your account or not establish a debit. Not incurring a debit in your margin account would allow you to keep your option privileges and have the shares from being loaned.
If you have any questions please feel free to either email or call us at 888-871-9007.
Scott Cornett
Margin Risk Department
TD Ameritrade
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
We know that Tesla's costs are under $190 per kWh, as stated by their VP of investor relations. So something has to be missing from the numbers you are using for your calculations.
Ah, Panasonic's Automotive and Industrial Company, Energy Division sells a lot of cells and batteries to major automakers and not just lithium ion. Tesla is less than 50% of their business.
Panasonic makes lead acid, NIMH, and lithium ion cells and batteries. They only supply cells to Tesla, but they supply sometimes cells, sometimes entire battery packs to others. They make prismatic lithium ion batteries for Toyota, Ford, and Audi, going into vehicles like the Prius Plug-in Hybrid, the Prius V, the Ford Fusion and C-Max hybrids.
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Can somebody here that lives close to the Freemont factory do reconnaissance
for us. Does production appear at full throttle?
At what rate are vehicles coming out of the production line.
We need "assets" behind "enemy lines", we need a network of informers.
for us. Does production appear at full throttle?
At what rate are vehicles coming out of the production line.
We need "assets" behind "enemy lines", we need a network of informers.
That would be true regarding small retail traders. However, hedge funds and their algobots can and do force the price in the direction they seek by buying or shorting/selling a large number of shares, options or futures. This can set up a domino effect cascade in which the limit prices set by others are successively triggered.
Here is a 2008 explanation by former hedge fund manager and current CNBC commentator Jim Cramer.
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I'm of the belief that shorts do indeed manipulate TSLA SP from time to time in order to achieve long-range objectives. For example, the break above 207 was seen as a threat to shorts. Remember, many of them are unhappy with the high interest rates now charged for shorting TSLA and some are looking for an attractive exit point.
The day before yesterday, TSLA jumped between green and red at least 5 times. We're seen another green vs. red battle today. The broader markets are up, but if you follow TSLA trading carefully, you know that if TSLA can be nipped in the bud early in the day when the broader markets are trading up, traders often move their money to more reliable stocks for riding the uptrend. I am suggesting that the shorts wish to insert a question-mark in the minds of investors over the weekend and we're seeing another battle for green vs. red today. It's a matter of sometimes selling into TSLA in order to protect your current short position. It's a matter of psychology to keep the shorts from getting too nervous in this recall environment and buying to close their positions. You need to look at least as much at short motivations as at long motivations to understand the trading of this stock. Do you think the decrease in SP down to the starting point of today's trading and the bouncing up and down, up and down is coincidental?
Edit: With maximum pain at 215, there's an advantage to shorts of being close to that number as the day nears an end because then you have the possibility of some pressure from the market makers to hit the 215 on the dot.
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