I see things differently. Since the runup after Elon announced a "master plan 2" is in the works, the bears have been throwing everything they can at TSLA, with no more effect than a loss of $1 plus change a day. My point is that this type of barrage is unsustainable from their side. See those 10,000-20,000 share (and occasionally 100,000+ shares) dips that are immediately forgotten and the SP returns to its normal trading range? Every time we see a selling barrage, the shorts have gotten deeper into TSLA. How do I know? An investor wishing to simply maximize his profit does not sell 20,000 or even 100,0000 shares in a matter of 4 seconds. Too many of the shares sell for lower amounts in such a case. The only reason to sell that many shares in a single burst is to either try to drive down the SP as a short or to respond to bad news that just hit the wire.To me, that resilience to strong bursts of selling is a bullish indication. It means that most longs aren't budging. Instead, they're waiting for Q3, which strongly looks like an epic increase in deliveries and an appropriate improvement in financials, too.
At some point it will become clear that Tesla is going to deliver greater than 24,000 vehicles in Q3, and the stock will jump nicely upward. My guess is that Elon will give an updated production number during the 2Q ER, which will neutralize the low numbers of Q2. Once the 2Q ER is out of the way, the stock has little reason not to climb. The problem with waiting on the sidelines for 2Q ER is that the stock may start heading higher before then, either from info released during the gigafactory event, or from positive news regarding the remainder of the year, released during the ER. So, sit on the sidelines at your own peril. Q3 is going to be good and the market isn't going to wait for the delivery numbers to officially be released before pushing TSLA higher.
Look also at the dilemma the shorts are in. After leveraging the autopilot story to the max, TSLA has barely budged this week. Meanwhile, interest rates for borrowing shares continue to climb, from about 21% at Fidelity to over 40% at some other brokerage houses. Shorts are getting nervous. They're pushing the FUD to the max to get a big break downward so that they can exit, and it isn't happening. All it takes is a big jump upwards, and you will see shorts bailing out of TSLA. Musk cannot afford to see TSLA fall below 215 because of the SEC issue with the autopilot, and so he will provide enough of a look into the future to keep the SP above 215. Don't you see this? Longs have minimal downside risk at this point unless there's a big surprise such as an unfavorable NHTSA ruling, but quite a bit of upside potential. I'm staying in.
