Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Drax7]

Aubrey McClendon basically revolutionized fracking, a hard charging entrepreneur, with a greater than life personality,
that took massive risks, and got into trouble when he got over extended and then came the crash of 2008.

Wonder if Elon is even crazier.

 

[generalenthu]

I'd venture to guess that the master plan is not going to come out while the markets are open. Good or bad, that is going to cause some volatility and volatility is not a good thing. Let people sleep over it.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

My feelings for the delay is that he is in secret negotiations with a behemoth who will take minority stake and guarantee future of sustainable transport.

 

[austinEV]

My goodness I wish I could buy a put on SMP2 enthusiasm. It is about to crash hard when it turns out to be cars+energy storage+solar.

(which the market understands already. The ticker will be fine.)

 

[Drumheller]

My goodness I wish I could buy a put on SMP2 enthusiasm. It is about to crash hard when it turns out to be cars+energy storage+solar.

I'm with you there. I think this will be a cool thing to read from an interest point of view but I don't expect it to have any impact on the stock price.

 

[generalenthu]

I'm with you there. I think this will be a cool thing to read from an interest point of view but I don't expect it to have any impact on the stock price.

That is unless Elon pulls an Adam Jonas and lays out the case for on demand mobility a la Uber. Not banking on it though.

 

[dakh]

One thing wasn't mentioned yet is it might be not in the company our big investor's interest to have big share price moves before the vote since it will introduce uncertainty. Another point is that looks to me the concern about share price at the merger announcement was misplaced, it mattered what the RATIO was and how fare was that. Price is now of little relevance since the market is pricing in a high probability of merger.​

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Anyone have any thoughts on the effect of negative interest rates? In theory, this should be wonderful for Tesla. It may sound wonderful for all automobile manufacturers, however, it also means all other automobile manufacturers will need to buy more ZEV credits, and/or sell a ton of Electric Vehicles.
CIBC is 1st Canadian bank to sell bonds with negative interest rate

 

[austinEV]

That is unless Elon pulls an Adam Jonas and lays out the case for on demand mobility a la Uber. Not banking on it though.

I am just going to keep repeating this: If Tesla can make full autonomous cars they are already the most valuable company in the world. Renting them out ala Uber is an afterthought.

Unless you are talking about integrating software/network to allow M3 Human DRIVERS to compete with Uber, which is a good idea but not what is typically mentioned.

 

[dakh]

Seems 229 is of some significance

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here we have it, from the two registered NOT fanboys: Jim Cramer and Doug Haas: TSLA tight as a drum, shares for shorting are not available...

Jim Cramer says Tesla's new 'master plan' won't matter - the stock is 'heavily shorted.'

And we are about to break-out, and many more million shares need to be recalled. The writing is on the wall...

 

[Papafox]

So much of the price action today is in anticipation of SMP2 release. No guarantees what TSLA will actually do when the SMP2 is released, but the promise of an upcoming SMP2 has been a useful catalyst to the SP for over a week now. It allowed TSLA to weather the autopilot FUDstorm last week, and for this I am grateful.

 

[Electrifying]

Omniscient traders just KNOW the stock price's rise is caused by this or that event. Yadada. Where is the respect to Mr. Market?

 

[generalenthu]

I am just going to keep repeating this: If Tesla can make full autonomous cars they are already the most valuable company in the world. Renting them out ala Uber is an afterthought.

Unless you are talking about integrating software/network to allow M3 Human DRIVERS to compete with Uber, which is a good idea but not what is typically mentioned.

When the last master plan came, autonomy was not on the table. Now it is front and center for Tesla, though they are arguably behind Google. So I would think it at least merits a mention in the master plan. Though, it remains to be seen how many cards Elon wants to show.

 

[brian45011]

I don't know what approach they'll use for this vote, but proxy communications have gone out well in advance of the annual meeting voting.
For example this year, I received my notice on April 19th for the meeting on May 31st. It was for holders as of April 8th.

For the last six proxies, the record date has been consistently about a week before the proxy was filed, and the proxy was filed about six weeks before the annual meeting.

 

[jhm]

One thing wasn't mentioned yet is it might be not in the company our big investor's interest to have big share price moves before the vote since it will introduce uncertainty. Another point is that looks to me the concern about share price at the merger announcement was misplaced, it mattered what the RATIO was and how fare was that. Price is now of little relevance since the market is pricing in a high probability of merger.​

Investors who are buying Tesla and SolarCity likely favor the merger within the exchange range, while those who don't like the deal are inclined to sell out of both companies. So as time goes on the composition of both bodies of shareholders will shift and skew toward favoring the deal. And yes, it's the ratio of shares that matters not the dollar price of SCTY. So as investors self-select into and out of these stocks, we should see tighter convergence in the two stocks.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Come on guys, how much more evidence do we need? Everything and a kitchen sink was thrown out at TSLA as it stubbornly moving up - do you really think SMP2 will matter short term, one way or another?

IMO it will not, not in a very short term. It will take weeks for it to sink into the investor's conscience. Until then TSLA is being ruled by escalating recalls.

Here is another circumstantial evidence: why, after the recent rather steep increase in outstanding shares, although the short interest is in absolute numbers lower than ATH, Mr. Doug Haas can't borrow shares for shorting? I think the answer is simple: because institutions are in the process of recalling them and are not in a position to lend these shares out.

"Unwise"

 

[austinEV]

When the last master plan came, autonomy was not on the table. Now it is front and center for Tesla, though they are arguably behind Google. So I would think it at least merits a mention in the master plan. Though, it remains to be seen how many cards Elon wants to show.

Ah, true! SMP2: Autonomous cars+energy storage+solar.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Very low volume today. Kind of melting up.

OT, funny:

 

[jhm]

Ok, there has been some enthusiasm for Tesla that has left SolarCity in the dust. The spread opened up to $11.63. This is pretty plum for buying SolarCity. Be careful paying too much for Tesla when it gets ahead of SolarCity.

If TSLA shorts are closing hard, that could induce a wider spread.