Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[RobStark]

Source?

There are many but here is one.


Tesla’s vice president of business development Diarmuid O’Connell was recently giving a speech in Amsterdam where he revealed that so far the company has received more than 400,000 reservations for the Model 3. This goes to show that the demand is quite strong for the affordable electric car and that the figure is only set to rise in the future.

Tesla Model 3 Reservations Cross 400,000 Units

 

[mmd]

Latest known M3 reservation count is 373,000 from SEC filing. Probably the SEC filing next month will have the next concrete update.
Model 3 Reservation Tally

 

[gene]

It would make zero sense for Apple to enter the Automobile Industry as a standalone manufacturer.

All I know is that a friend of mine who was an engineer at Tesla from quite early on interviewed with Apple almost two years ago. His specialty would only be used by someone planning to build a car. He stated to me Apple was very secretive during the interview but he said he felt pretty certain they plan to build a car.

 

[dakh]

Interesting "info" embedded in the EXIF data of that photo:

Man you leave no stone unturned. I'm very impressed.

 

[vgrinshpun]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/25/b...lon-musk-is-moving-full-speed-ahead.html?_r=0

Thank you, Doggusfluffy, for this link. Although this article has some wrong information (it states that "federal safety officials opened an investigation into the death of Joshua Brown, who was killed when his Tesla Model S smashed at full speed into the tractor-trailer that had turned across its pass", which, as I noted couple of times before is flat out wrong), it has one piece of information that provides additional support to my theory that Tesla is planning to greatly scale up TE products starting at the end of this year, and cell production at the first phase of GF (14%) starting by the end of this year is geared toward this goal, rather than to support the M3 production.

According to the article JB confirmed that second phase of the GF will be coming on line in 12 month. This means that second phase will take care of the battery supply for M3 ramp, while phase I will be used for other purposes.

In high-desert heat outside Reno, Nev., last week, J. B. Straubel looked out at a vast dirt patch, a construction site that had just broken ground.

“This will be building batteries in 12 months,” said Mr. Straubel, Tesla’s chief technology officer and a co-founder of the company with Mr. Musk.

Behind Mr. Straubel was another part of the factory, already built and partly up and running.

I've refined this theory few times, and currently think that the following will happen:

• by the end of this year, per the numerous indications by Tesla execs, GF Phase I will start producing cells. Since Phase I equal to approximately 14% the production capacity will be 3 x 35 x 0.14 = 14.7GWh. These will be cells of new, slightly larger format, produced at the lower cost to Tesla
• by the end of this year, once new cells from GF Phase I are available, the MX and MS will be switched to using battery packs with these new format cells produced at the GF. This will allow for increase of the battery capacity to a max of 100kWh, while increasing the gross margins. I believe that GM guidance provided by Tesla (25% for MX and 30% for MS by the end of this year) accounts for this improvement and for the addition of software limited 60kWh pack
• older (18650 format) cells produced at the Panasonic factories in Japan (10GWh +), with tweaked chemistry as required, will be used for TE products.
• by the end of next year GF Phase II, with capacity probably equal to the Phase 1 will be available for the M3 ramp up. At 55kWh pack in each M3 the 14.7GWh will allow for production of 267K of M3
• The cells produced at GF Phase 1 (14.7GWh/year) can potentially cover 147K MX/MS with 100kWh packs. That quantity will increase to 183K assuming average size for the MS/MX battery pack of 80kWh.

None of the above is priced in, so I believe this will provide a very strong support to the higher SP after the run-up associated with the recall of shares by institutional shareholders.

 

[3Victoria]

This article is quite good: Tesla Races to Finish ‘Gigafactory’ in Time for Model 3 Rollout
But the comments suck, as per usual .. complete trash and FUD.

 

[Johan]

Man you leave no stone unturned. I'm very impressed.

I just wanted to see if I could determine the date the photo was taken.

 

[schonelucht]

There are many but here is one.


Tesla’s vice president of business development Diarmuid O’Connell was recently giving a speech in Amsterdam where he revealed that so far the company has received more than 400,000 reservations for the Model 3. This goes to show that the demand is quite strong for the affordable electric car and that the figure is only set to rise in the future.

Tesla Model 3 Reservations Cross 400,000 Units

That speech predates SEC filing which said 373 000. Either there have been a lot of cancellations or the VP was wrongly quoted or he rounded up. Or all three.

 

[MitchJi]

According to the article JB confirmed that second phase of the GF will be coming on line in 12 month. This means that second phase will take care of the battery supply for M3 ramp, while phase I will be used for other purposes.

I've refined this theory few times, and currently think that the following will happen:

• by the end of this year, per the numerous indications by Tesla execs, GF Phase I will start producing cells. Since Phase I equal to approximately 14% the production capacity will be 3 x 35 x 0.14 = 14.7GWh. These will be cells of new, slightly larger format, produced at the lower cost to Tesla
  [*]by the end of this year, once new cells from GF Phase I are available, the MX and MS will be switched to using battery packs with these new format cells produced at the GF. This will allow for increase of the battery capacity to a max of 100kWh, while increasing the gross margins. I believe that GM guidance provided by Tesla (25% for MX and 30% for MS by the end of this year) accounts for this improvement and for the addition of software limited 60kWh pack.
  [*]older (18650 format) cells produced at the Panasonic factories in Japan (10GWh +), with tweaked chemistry as required, will be used for TE products.
• by the end of next year GF Phase II, with capacity probably equal to the Phase 1 will be available for the M3 ramp up. At 55kWh pack in each M3 the 14.7GWh will allow for production of 267K of M3
  [*]The cells produced at GF Phase 1 (14.7GWh/year) can potentially cover 147K MX/MS with 100kWh packs. That quantity will increase to 183K assuming average size for the MS/MX battery pack of 80kWh.

Except that they already stated that they are going to use the first cells produced at the GF for TE. Which means TE is slated for huge growth.

 

[schonelucht]

by the end of this year, per the numerous indications by Tesla execs, GF Phase I will start producing cells. Since Phase I equal to approximately 14% the production capacity will be 3 x 35 x 0.14 = 14.7GWh. These will be cells of new, slightly larger format, produced at the lower cost to Tesla

Do we know that they plan to produce at triple the original capacity right from the start or was it merely that they had the capability to eventually scale up to triple the original capacity within the building?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Interesting spike at about 09:00h almost two hours ago during trading in Frankfurt, followed by a fade.

 

[Fast Laner]

Interesting spike at about 09:00h almost two hours ago during trading in Frankfurt, followed by a fade.

high ev-en,
this happened on tradegate exchange. single digit numbers sold blw 202 eu and triple digit numbers bought abv 203 eu.

off topic:

is someone from germany attending gigaparty on the upcoming friday? pls pm, danke.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Except that they already stated that they are going to use the first cells produced at the GF for TE. Which means TE is slated for huge growth.

If they did, I've missed it. I've heard only about producing battery packs for TE. Could you clarify who and when mentioned using cells produced at Phase I of GF for TE, and provide the link?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Do we know that they plan to produce at triple the original capacity right from the start or was it merely that they had the capability to eventually scale up to triple the original capacity within the building?

There will be obviously a ramp-up, subject to the demand limitations, if any, but it does not make sense to build Phase II before maxing out production at Phase I. This is my wag, but I expect ramp-up to take 6-9 month. So Phase I should be producing, subject to demand limitations, 14.7GWh in second half of 2017. The current GF cell production capacity estimate from Tesla is 105GWh, and this figure is used by the press, the latest source being WSJ article linked above by 3Victoria.

 

[DrJohnM]

Do we know that they plan to produce at triple the original capacity right from the start or was it merely that they had the capability to eventually scale up to triple the original capacity within the building?

this is a function of better equipment, reduced equipment footprint and (probably) cell technology. The first two are likely to be in the first phase (as you would need to know th equipment capabilities to know what the impact was) and the later would be a rolling improvement to all and any part of the GF (assuming the technology is drop in - otherwise it would require replacement equipment).

So likely that these improvements are in phase 1

 

[winfield100]

Interesting quote from Elon in the article:.........Business is just a means for him to achieve the higher goal of reducing CO2.

and making humanity multiplanetary (there is a nice homage to Elon in Neil Stephenson's SF novel "Seven Eves" around page 370+ where Elon brings an ice comet using an atomic engine and ice as fuel to help save the ISS (andhumanity), dying in the sucessful attempt)

way OT.

 

[vgrinshpun]

UBS sees a Q2 'Miss' for Tesla

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

UBS sees a Q2 'Miss' for Tesla

They are really going out in a limb eh?

 

[MartinAustin]

At some point, someone is going to get caught out simply using vehicle deliveries to predict earnings. They don't report Tesla Energy sales until earnings reports.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Very nice SP move right after open