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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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If it was the case (abandoning AP) then I think $TSLA would dump. AP is one of the flags (if not The Flag considering the case for EV is made and proven) for Tesla. IMO is a do or die for them.

Yeah I wasn't saying that's even really on the table, just that considering the recent media there might be some who would interpret the Mobileye drop a sign of dropping autopilot too.
 
Is it possible for enough of the large shorts to get out soon enough to avoid a substantial upswing (SP above ~$300) when the big institutions pull in their shares? I don't think it is possible, but if I'm wrong that's the only way I can see it happening.
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*shrug* Speaking as a software developer who's done exactly this sort of thing in a product I maintain? Not that bad. The product I maintain has 4 different cameras that it can use, and the rest of the software doesn't care where the pictures come from.

You have a hardware abstraction layer that simply wraps the (N) kinds of hardware into simple functions that are hardware agnostic. Then if you want a feature that is dependent on newer hardware, that function returns a special code if being run on older hardware that marks the feature unavailable.

Its a bit more work upfront, but I'd be shocked if TSLA didn't already have such a layer in place given how fast their update cycle is.

I'm a software engineer too, and I was about to write this exact same response. This should be a non-issue. Even when there was only one camera system, such a layer of abstraction would have been necessary just for testing purposes. This is a minor inconvenience and something that we deal with all the time.

As one example, my current project supports multiple database vendors. That's one of hundreds of things that can vary in our current system. We literally do this stuff all day long, it is software architecture 101.
 
If Tesla is really using MobilEye as just a glorified dumb camera then there was absolutely no need for Elon himself to sit in on a conference call with MobilEyes technical leads to discuss how to improve Autopilot performance by pushing the MobilEye components to the limits of their technological limits. With a dumb camera, the specs are pretty much the specs.

From this Tesla 'Correction to article' posted (I believe) in Dec 2015:
"We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed in the article, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.

Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning. Going forward, we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip, in our vehicles. Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it."

Edit: Key phrase that now seems very relevant, "we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip"
 
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From this Tesla 'Correction to article' posted (I believe) in Dec 2015:
"We should also clarify that Tesla’s autopilot system was designed and developed in-house. Were this simply a matter of repackaging a vendor’s technology, as claimed in the article, we would not be unique in offering this groundbreaking experience in production vehicles. If other car companies could meet or exceed the Tesla product by buying an off-the-shelf solution, they would do so.

Tesla Autopilot includes radar, ultrasonics, GPS/nav, cameras and real-time connectivity to Tesla servers for fleet learning. Going forward, we will continue to use the most advanced component technologies, such as MobilEye’s vision chip, in our vehicles. Their part is the best in the world at what it does and that is why we use it."
Is Nvidia's chip(set) replacing mobileye's?
 
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So he was going 74mph not the claimed 90+ that an eyewitness and the truck driver claimed and AP was in use. Other than that we have no idea if the other claimed details are true (movie playing).
The main takeaway for me is that the final report will come out in 12 months. LOL what on earth are they doing for 12 months? Gov't agencies crack me up.
 
The National Transportation Safety Board issued Tuesday its preliminary report for the investigation of a fatal May 7, 2016, highway crash on US Highway 27A, near Williston, Florida.

The preliminary report does not contain any analysis of data and does not state probable cause for the crash.

The preliminary report details the collision involving a 53-foot semitrailer in combination with a 2014 Freightliner Cascadia truck tractor and a 2015 Tesla Model S. The report states that according to system performance data downloaded from the car, the indicated vehicle speed was 74 mph just prior to impact, and the posted speed limit was 65 mph.

The car’s system performance data also revealed the driver was using the advanced driver assistance features Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer lane keeping assistance. The car was also equipped with automatic emergency braking that is designed to automatically apply the brakes to reduce the severity of
or assist in avoiding frontal collisions.

A team of five NTSB investigators traveled to Williston to conduct the on-scene phase of the investigation. The team used three-dimensional laser scanning technology to document the crash location, the damaged trailer and the damaged car. NTSB investigators continue to collect and analyze performance data from the car’s multiple electronic systems. This data along with other information collected during the on-scene phase of the investigation will be used to evaluate the crash events.

All aspects of the crash remain under investigation. While no timeline has been established, final reports are generally published 12 months after the release of a preliminary report.
In other words absolutely nothing new.
 
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Interactive Brokers is offering this morning:

95k shares $TSLA available to short at 19.48% borrowing rate
216k shares $SCTY available to short at a whopping 76.89% borrowing rate

FYI
This is interesting. It suggests to me that shorts are trying to suppress SolarCity more heavily than Tesla. They've got to keep the spread wide.

Currently the spread is quite tight at $3.63, and both stocks to start to take off.
 
Thinking about autopilot, Tesla, and Mobileye, it occurs to me that if Tesla's system was really just a repackaging of Mobileye's tech, then the new Mercedes E-class with the latest Mobileye hardware implementation should be a much better automated driver - at least, the distance between the Tesla Autopilot implementation and the Mercedes DrivePilot should be much, much closer. Clearly, that's not the case. Given no inside information on these systems, I am guessing that the Mobileye stack has an analogue to game systems, where there is a GPU and a stack of software technologies like Metal/OpenGL/DirectX all the way through to a game engine like Unity with a physics engine and so forth. So basically, Mobileye provides hardware and a reference software implementation and the Mercedes DrivePilot is much closer to the reference implementation. Tesla basically sources the equivalent to the GPU and some elements of the software stack, but basically has written all of the rest themselves. It remains to be seen, if we ever get to see it, how much of the stack Tesla ended up using and how much can be directly replaced with, say, parts and pieces of NVIDIA's DRIVE PX/PX2. It is interesting to listen to geohot's interview where he completely dismisses Mobileye - matter of fact, he's long NVIDIA and short MBLY. Of course, he's tremendously biased with his own automated driving implementation coming to market, but his insights are more forthcoming than I've seen elsewhere. In the interview, he says that Musk offered him $12 million to replace Mobileye.
 
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Other than official confirmation that it wasn't 90+mph.

74mph in a 65, while speeding, isn't outlandishly fast.

Tesla already told us publicly that neither the driver nor AP engaged the brake, which would lead one to believe that he had AP set for 74mph. Which, if my experience with the way people drive is valid -- pretty standard. Set cruise control for just under 10mph over to avoid police attention.

My view of what happened remains unchanged: Mr. Brown (i think that was his name...) had become somewhat complacent in his usage of AP, and was not paying sufficient attention to the roadway ahead of him to react to changing conditions. The semi illegally turned in front of him, and both he and AP failed to react. The semi's fault for making an illegal turn, but Mr. Brown should have at least been paying enough attention to attempt to brake.

74 mph is 108 feet per second. A stopped tractor trailer in a left turn lane cannot cross the fast lane of a highway and get its cab ~25ft past the slow lane and onto the cross street in less than about 4-5 seconds. He should have had at least 500-1000 ft to react and avoid the collision. According to this: 2014 Tesla Model S 60 - Instrumented Test a Tesla S can stop from 70mph to zero in ~160-175ft.
 
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I think this is pretty interesting - Jaguar moving to EV

www.automobilemag.com/news/xk-replacement-c-x75-supercar-programs-axed/?sm_id=social_aumomotortrendhub_MotorTrend_20160725_64168256&adbid=757685623624871936&adbpl=tw&adbpr=14332852

Jaguar has scrapped plans to replace the XK coupe and convertible with a 2+2 built off a stretched F-Type platform. Coventry has also decided against building a production version of the C-X75 supercar, known internally as Spectre after its cameo role in the most recent 007 film. Instead, it will build two upscale EVs: one designed to ultimately replace the XJ sedan, the other a premium SUV.

Equipped with all-wheel drive, the X590 effectively takes on Tesla’s Model S. It will come to market a full year before the first of the German luxury EVs, the lineup of which includes the Mercedes EQS sedan (to be positioned between E- and S-class) plus the Audi C e-tron and BMW 9 Series luxury coupes.
 
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