Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Electrek posted a picture of a Red Model 3 prototype with the Model 3-style handles. Anybody able to confirm if its the same one we saw during the reveal?

Where's the trunkline? Is that somehow a hatch?

 

[dandurston]

That red Model 3 looks like an old one. It's got the same rims as the first unveil and I believe Tesla said they're going to use the rims on the silver car, so it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to build new Model 3's with outdated rims.

 

[racer26]

Where's the trunkline? Is that somehow a hatch?

The cutline is along the glass.

 

[dandurston]

Elon on the MobilEye/Tesla split:

“This was expected and will not have any material effect on our plans. MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car.”

Translation: We decided to vertically integrate and make our own sensors and chips because MobilEye is too slow. We want to make a single, really good system, while MobilEye wants to make a less capable and bloated system they can sell to everyone - even to automakers that need a lot of hand holding.

 

[racer26]

Elon on the MobilEye/Tesla split:

“This was expected and will not have any material effect on our plans. MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car.”

Translation: We decided to vertically integrate and make our own sensors and chips because MobilEye is too slow.

Agreed 100%.

 

[FANGO]

That red Model 3 looks like an old one. It's got the same rims as the first unveil and I believe Tesla said they're going to use the rims on the silver car, so it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to build new Model 3's with outdated rims.

There will be multiple rim designs with the 3 just as there are with the S. That's a prediction, but I think it's a pretty obvious one.

 

[racer26]

Fortune is also live-blogging the event: Live Blog: Tesla Unveils the Gigafactory

They posted this picture of the 3 out front:

Compared to this one from the reveal night:

 

[Johan]

Elon on the MobilEye/Tesla split:

“This was expected and will not have any material effect on our plans. MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car.”

Translation: We decided to vertically integrate and make our own sensors and chips because MobilEye is too slow. We want to make a single, really good system, while MobilEye wants to make a bloated system that they can sell to all automakers - even one with really poor software.

Absolutely! Here's what I posted in one of the threads specifically discussing TSLA/MBLY split:

Elon on CC:

"One of the challenges we face is that for a lot of supply chains they're impedance-matched to the timeframe of the big OEMS, and Tesla just moves a lot faster than the big OEMS. And so, if they're impedance-matched to a typical sort of 6-year development cycle and we're on a 2- or 3-year development cycle, it just doesn't connect properly. Some suppliers can handle that, and some can't."

Mobileye couldn't deliver the next gen chip in time, so Tesla cut them out. It's that simple.

 

[racer26]

My feeling is that it might not be the same car. The red color looks a little different in shade (but that could be lighting) and the silver around the windows looks more matte in the Gigafactory shots and more chrome in the reveal shots.

 

[MikeC]

Fortune is also live-blogging the event: Live Blog: Tesla Unveils the Gigafactory

They posted this picture of the 3 out front:

Compared to this one from the reveal night:

I'm surprised Fortune got an invite.

 

[dandurston]

There will be multiple rim designs with the 3 just as there are with the S. That's a prediction, but I think it's a pretty obvious one.

Maybe so, but I'm pretty sure Tesla said these specific rims were an old design they weren't going to use.

 

[SebastianR]

My feeling is that it might not be the same car. The red color looks a little different in shade (but that could be lighting) and the silver around the windows looks more matte in the Gigafactory shots and more chrome in the reveal shots.

Agree - the biggest difference for me are the front fog-lights(?) that you can't see on the reveal car but that are clearly visible on the car in front of the giga factory. My money would be on "different car"

 

[MitchJi]

Elon on the MobilEye/Tesla split:

“This was expected and will not have any material effect on our plans. MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. <snip>

Translation: We decided to vertically integrate and make our own sensors and chips because MobilEye is too slow.

Or use other vendors.

Tesla's rejection is a long-term concern for Mobileye

driver-assistance system provider Mobileye's (MBLY) partnership with Tesla Motors (TSLA) won't extend beyond Mobileye's EyeQ3 vision processor, as disclosed by Mobileye today during its earnings call, won't have a huge impact on Mobileye's sales in the near-term. But there are still a few reasons why investors in Mobileye, which is down 8.8% at the time of this article, should be concerned.

First, Tesla, which relies on Mobileye's processors to help power the autopilot features found within its Model S sedan and Model X SUV, is positioning itself to evolve from being a niche luxury electric car maker to a high-volume manufacturer. Whereas the company is looking to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 cars this year, it wants to build 500,000 in 2018, as production of its relatively inexpensive Model 3 sedan ramps.

Mobileye's next-generation EyeQ4 processor is expected to enter volume production. With Mobileye claiming an average selling price (ASP) above $40 for its chips in recent quarters, and the company having talked of an OEM -- possibly Tesla -- using five chips in an advanced implementation, 500,000 Teslas would've been a major opportunity for a firm whose average 2017 sales estimate was at $489.8 million going into earnings.

Second, Tesla has a reputation for being at the bleeding edge of automotive R&D, in autonomous driving and various other fields. Despite recent scrutiny stemming from accidents that occurred while it was engaged, autopilot, which relies on radar, ultrasonic sensors and GPS in addition to cameras connected to Mobileye's processors, has received rave reviews for the extent to which it can take over from drivers in everyday situations.

Thus the fact Tesla, which has ambitious goals for creating fully autonomous cars, has chosen not to rely on Mobileye's processors as it pursues those goals doesn't make for good PR. Particularly when taken with the fact Google, which is investing heavily to achieve its goal of bringing a self-driving car to market by 2020, has eschewed Mobileye's processors in favor of a proprietary lidar sensor array.

This is a problem for Mobileye, not for Tesla.

 

[racer26]

Agree - the biggest difference for me are the front fog-lights(?) that you can't see on the reveal car but that are clearly visible on the car in front of the giga factory. My money would be on "different car"

They were there in the reveal car.

 

[3Victoria]

Yes, different or modified. Is there is a round hole on the front 'bumper'? EDIT: My mistake ... Just the same as before.

 

[mejojo]

Electrek posted a picture of a Red Model 3 prototype with the Model 3-style handles. Anybody able to confirm if its the same one we saw during the reveal?

They are different cars....reveal car has hatch split line much higher.

 

[Fallenone]

Why are we obsessed with if the car today is the same at reveal?

 

[racer26]

They are different cars....reveal car has hatch split line much higher.

I dont think so:

 

[dandurston]

They are different cars....reveal car has hatch split line much higher.

The hatch split line is the same. Here is a better picture of the car from the reveal:
http://www.rushlane.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Tesla-Model-3-Photos-1.jpg

 

[racer26]

Why are we obsessed with if the car today is the same at reveal?

To determine if there are more than the 3 Model 3's we know about in existence today? If its not the same car, then it might be closer to the pencils down design.