Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

just watched the video of the press Q&A from elektrek; some significant takeaways (the audio isn't great but I don't think i'm misrepresenting anything):

-battery packs for vehicles will first be made at the gigafactory in about 6 months (first for testing and early model 3 prototypes, etc). Conclusion: Tesla will not be making Model S/X battery packs with initial cells from the Gigafactory

-Elon (without anyone asking) mentioned both powerpacks and powerwalls will be made first from cells from the Gigafactory; someone asked about the mix between powerpacks and powerwalls will still be what they originally estimated. Elon
Conclusion: The powerwall is still clearly in Tesla's product road map -- this hasn't changed

-another reporter asked about the stationary storage volumes in 2017; Elon hemmed and hawed a bunch and said it would probably be about a third of the volume of car batteries initially, but had a heavy caveat that it is very hard to predict based on the S curve of the production ramp. I believe he said his best guess was about 10 GW of batteries for stationary storage in 2017.
Conclusion: I haven't had time to run the numbers (about to take off on a flight), so hoping someone can help me with this one!

Finally, on the question of capital raise, it wasn't clear whether the capital raise was re Model 3 or product plan...

Can you post direct link? I am unable to get video link from the Electrk.co work...

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm wondering when one of the bigger car manufacturers will announce a partnership to use the GF-cells in their cars, like in the past with Toyota/Daimler

That would be when hell freezes over.

 

[Krugerrand]

When is the target date to finish the whole GF? Thanks.

I'm not sure it'll ever be 'finished' since it's suppose to be a 'product' unto itself.

 

[Nate the Great]

It is kind of hard to hear. Here is the link.

 

[Tslynk67]

Those shorts are pushing like hell to keep the SP down,and they're failing miserably right now

 

[Fast Laner]

5 bucks gain in ten minutes timespan from 09:46 to 09:56

 

[ev-enthusiast]

5 bucks gain in ten minutes timespan from 09:46 to 09:56

I like what I see.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Short sellers are not all stupid. Many are folding and going long the stock at this juncture. They know not to fight the tape - the smart ones at least.

 

[dirtyofries]

Short sellers are not all stupid. Many are folding and going long the stock at this juncture. They know not to fight the tape - the smart ones at least.

We should send Mark Spiegel some flowers or something.

 

[SBenson]

Oil is falling due to lack of demand (again)

CL1 Commodity Quote - Generic 1st 'CL' Future

 

[dakh]

Actually, neither math, nor logic that you rely on to come to the conclusion that institutional holders can guarantee the vote goes their way work - so conclusion simply does not hold.

I'll give you a chance to figure out why math does not work. As far as logic is concerned you seem to assume two implausible things: one is that there is possibility for all institutional holders to get into a common meeting, and two - have them agree on a unified strategy for the recall (to assure that they have 2/3 of their holdings at their possession, or whatever the correct number to assure favorable vote is). Good luck with this...

Between the article that prompted me to revisit this logic to begin with and my previous post there is enough not to have to go to this simplistic black and white picture. Doesn't look to me this discussion has a chance to be productive without new facts so I'll respectfully bow out.

One more thought on the topic though: if there's some more recall activity to be done, might be the plan is to wait for a possible post-Q2 ER drop and do it then. That would reduce the possibility of any disorderly short unwinding or big share price moves.

 

[jhm]

Musk’s response to if Tesla will get into grid services: I think we’ll get into grid services eventually. The goal of Tesla is to accelerate sustainable energy, so we’re going to take a step back and think about what’s most likely to achieve that goal.

- Looks like PowerPacks are no longer in the near term roadmap. As many have noted here they weren't mentioned in masterplan-2 either.

There's an important question here about whether the grid in its present form is really sustainable. Put another way, what will the grid look like in 10, 20, 30 or more years? If every home and business had a day or more worth energy consumption stored in local batteries, then the grid only exists to swap surplus power and minimize the cost of charging local, consumer batteries. Moreover, it makes no sense to recharge consumer batteries from power stored in utility batteries, as that roughly doubles the cost of storage. So this potentially leaves a fairly thin grid that has no real economic use for utility battery storage. Granted in the grid of today, there are plenty of uses for grid storage, but this need not be true of the grid of the future. So Tesla needs to think very carefully where to position itself for the grid of future and focus on those near term applications of batteries which deliver the highest economic return. I believe those opportunities are primarily in EV autos, EV semis and other heavy vehicles and DERs, applications which require batteries to be placed very close to the point of consumption. BTW, Powerpacks definitely have a place in commercial DERs.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still that constant drip, drip, drip, transactions of 100 shares every second or more...

 

[andrerodpt]

Surprise, Surprise. Tesla Needs More Money

PS: don't hate the messenger...

 

[MitchJi]

One more thought on the topic though: if there's some more recall activity to be done, might be the plan is to wait for a possible post-Q2 ER drop and do it then. That would reduce the possibility of any disorderly short unwinding or big share price moves.

OTOH institutions have an incentive to wait until the last possible moment in order to maximize their interest income.

It could be that the long delay is giving shorts a chance to exit. I'd still think that even if they all exit before their shares get pulled that should still push the SP up to something like $300? I think that partially explains the current strength.

This article lists some of the possible benefits and pitfalls of merger arbitrage:
Trade Takeover Stocks With Merger Arbitrage | Investopedia

Merger arbitrage (also known as "merge-arb") calls for trading the stocks of companies engaged in mergers and takeovers. When the terms of a potential merger become public, an arbitrageur will go long, or buy shares of the target company, which in most cases trade below the acquisition price. At the same time, the arbitrageur will short sell the acquiring company by borrowing shares with the hope of repaying them later with lower cost shares.

If all goes as planned, the target company's stock price should eventually rise to reflect the agreed per-share acquisition price, and the acquirer's price should fall to reflect what it is paying for the deal. The wider the gap, or spread, between the current trading prices and their prices valued by the acquisition terms, the better the arbitrageur's potential returns. (For related reading, see Trading The Odds With Arbitrage.)

Know the Risks to Avoid the Losses
While this all sounds fairly straightforward, it is assuredly not that simple - in real life, things don't always go as predicted. The entire merger arbitrage business is a risky one in which takeover deals can fizzle and prices can move in unexpected directions, resulting in sizable losses for the arbitrageur.
<Snip>
Expert Business
Small investors thinking they might try a bit of merge-arb at home should probably think again. Veteran arbitrageur Joel Greenblatt, in his book "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" (1985), recommends that individual investors steer clear of the highly risky merger arbitrage arena.
<Snip>
worse, growing numbers of specialist funds moving into this part of the market has caused, paradoxically, greater market efficiency and subsequently fewer chances for profit. For instance, only so many investors can pile into a merge-arb trade before the price of the target company's shares will jump to the agreed per-share acquisition, which completely eliminates the price spread opportunity.

This changing situation forces arbitragers to be more creative. For instance, to bulk up returns, some traders leverage their bets, but also increase their risk, by using borrowed funds. Some merger investors make bets on potential acquisition targets before any deal is announced. Others step in as activists, pressuring a target's board of directors to reject bids in favor of higher prices.

Conclusion:
If all goes as planned, merger arbitrage potentially can deliver decent returns. The problem is that the world of mergers and acquisitions is rife with uncertainty. Betting on price movements around takeovers is a very risky business where profits are harder to come by.

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes just revealed their electric semi, says production within the next decade.

Mercedes-Benz shows off the first fully electric heavy urban transport truck

 

[dirtyofries]

Mercedes just revealed their electric semi, says production within the next decade.

Mercedes-Benz shows off the first fully electric heavy urban transport truck

Urban though - so not really the same as what Tesla appears to be pushing. I got the impression Tesla was going for long-haul.

As far as Mercedes, this just feels like an upscaled version of transit vans.

 

[dakh]

OTOH institutions have an incentive to wait until the last possible moment in order to maximize their interest income.

It could be that the long delay is giving shorts a chance to exit. I'd still think that even if they all exit before their shares get pulled that should still push the SP up to something like $300? I think that partially explains the current strength.

This article lists some of the possible benefits and pitfalls of merger arbitrage:
Trade Takeover Stocks With Merger Arbitrage | Investopedia

This is a very complicated case, Maude. You know, a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-you's… It also could be that the super high borrowing rates simply weeded out enough shorts "naturally" without having to do any explicit recall activity.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Urban though - so not really the same as what Tesla appears to be pushing. I got the impression Tesla was going for long-haul.

As far as Mercedes, this just feels like an upscaled version of transit vans.

It's only urban until batteries can be replaced for better ones a few years later

 

[esk8mw]

I noted a few days ago that 229 is a historical resistance point. I've noticed a big effort to keep the price below 229 every time it breaks out above this level.

I keep saying this, but once there's tangible news to push the price higher with some volume, watch out. I feel like the price has been held down artificially for quite some time now.