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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Wow, just wow - James Albertine sure changed his tune after leaving Stifel. The guy is apparently ready to sing any tune that was ordered...

Looks like the only guy who new anything about the technical side - the scientist from the Argone lab - is thinking that 50% reduction in battery cost is achievable and we are on the cusp of a breakthrough if this happens...

Inside Tesla's Deal to Buy SolarCity for $2.6 Billion
 
Another wow! Unbelievable - Cramer might be getting over the unbearable thought that Elon is smarter than him and have a vision (not to be confused with the smarty pants way of opining on other guys vision).

He is now saying that may be, just may be there is a huge play for the future of the sustainable energy. Who would've thought??

Cramer: Tesla, Uber signal a huge market transformation
 
The "aesthetically beautiful roof" song that Elon's been singing sure does not resonate with me. Here in New Mexico, most roofs, including mine, are flat, and most homes are adobe-style. So, a, I don't care what the roof looks like and b, nobody can see it unless you climb up on a ladder and walk on it.

In fact I'm not even sure I want a "solar roof." What I want is a ground installation. And I hear nothing from Tesla that, post SolarCity acquisition, the new entity will offer ground installs. This obsession with roofs is so limited. I'm waiting and waiting for a solar + battery + off-grid solution, but I fear it ain't going to happen with Tesla.
In today's conference call, it was mentioned by both CEO's that there will be more cash and loan purchases (i.e. customer owned) of solar panels in the future than the past, and both mentioned that Tesla solar buyers will be more interested in the non-lease versions (and in fact Elon said financing from working into the home loan would be attractive; the other CEO said getting Tesla solar + storage will spur more people wanting to own it due to the slightly different customer base for that product). Part of the deal is that if Solar City owns the panel systems (i.e. leased solar), they are slightly more restrictive about what kind of installation they will do. This means they will be willing to open up their business to a wider range of installation types in the future, especially with a merger. Obviously, they know how to do ground installs, since they do utility scale. My experience at looking at solar is that ground installs are more expensive, so part of the problem with a lease is that Solar City won't like financing it that way, but if you are willing to pay cash or loan, then they will do it more willingly the way you want it.

One of the big complaints about Solar City is that the solar lease function is getting them into a niche marketplace with a lot of financial pitfalls. They even said in today's conference call that their "cost of finance" is higher for this type of product; Elon himself said they are going to lower cost and lower risk, saying that people can add it to their home loans and get great rates on their financing. That means that with Elon as CEO, they are intending to get Solar City into a wider financial marketplace with more diverse and efficient financing models, and which have almost none of the pitfalls associated with leasing. If the customer owns or is paying a loan for the product, then Solar City isn't booking a huge amount of lease property.

About the New Mexico thing: sorry, I can't help you with that. Here in California, we have lots of tilted roofs everywhere, and vanity is a huge thing, and the beautiful roof will have a huge impact on the bottom line of getting both husband and wife on board. This coupled with all of the other stuff, and basically we're looking at a complete transformation of Solar City from a niche player with annoying particular arcane rules, to a well integrated popular source for energy with a wide variety of install options and capabilities for many situations. If they can control their costs and succeed at their innovations, then this should be attractive enough to not drag Tesla down at all, and more than likely boost it up a great deal.

I was hinging my opinion of this merger on whether they would stay with iffy financing. The very fact that they are already saying they are going to a cash and loan model for a great portion of their new customers answers this question for me. This coupled with all of the synergies should propel them into a good position. I still think we should keep the pressure on them not to get lazy and get back into old habits (of providing lease installations in such huge proportion to their portfolio that they get too exposed to that market niche).
 
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Wow a lot of discussion for a thing that has almost 0 chance of happening. If we assume that Elon is the best person to know solar city and he doesn't want to annoy solar city and tesla investors, and a bunch of smart people have now done a due diligence, and tesla revised down the initial offer knowing both the Rive brothers are going to lose tons of money on scty options, and solar city board is in agreement with the deal, people are still pondering if a higher offer is coming from someone other than Elon?

Wouldn't their options just turn into TSLA options at the prescribed conversion factor like ours do?

If not, I expect they'd be issued TSLA options.
 
Solar shingles aren't a new idea...so far they haven't faired too well in the market. Dow stopped their shingle program (Dow Chemical Sheds Its Solar Shingle Business) Hopefully TeslaCity has a better plan.
I think there's supposed to be a cost savings in an original installation, or a reroof. The problem is that a lot of the marketplace isn't in the market for a new roof all the time at the same time they decide to go solar. But, if this product is mature and in good working order and desirable, then whenever a new roof goes in, this is an option the home owner/builder can use. If mature enough, it could even spur a reroof when the solar goes in for roofs that are relatively near the end of their lifespans. It would be a good thing for a serious solar provider that wants to integrate into a fuller line of products (such as a Tesla Energy solar provider) to have available. This, of course, is assuming that it is a good product (good roof and good solar power); it has to meet fire codes, has to be relatively cost appropriate, has to look good, has to stop sun and water ingress (as well as confer the shielding from heat advantages that solar does on roofs), and catch and convert a high proportion of the available solar energy. That's not a slam dunk just because you want it to be. It would be great to have in the portfolio if it meets those criteria, and if they are even close to good enough, they could theoretically innovate the rest in future models.

That article was light on details about the Dow product. From my knowledge, there's only been a few shingle solar panels, and most of them suffered from just being bad products.

Just look at FlexsoLyt™ Solar Technology from Dow and tell me what you think in terms of a few generations of new products down the line. First, as they are, they are kind of, well, immature looking. Take that product line a few generations further, and suddenly it looks like it could use innovation, research, integration and design to make it into a more integrated product line.

I don't want to say this outright, but what if you take those pictures and combine that with some of the Silevo tech and install it --- well, on the types of things you see in those pictures. That MIGHT be one area they are considering, and might not. Integrated roof products are considered very vegan right now -- just downright dumb and unpopular. Zoom ahead a few decades, and we'll know if integrated solar is commonplace. In our roads, sidewalks, roofs, windows, walls, even perhaps other man-made surfaces exposed to the sun that use energy. Those products wouldn't make sense if they don't collect a LOT of solar energy, and/or don't look GREAT, and/or don't have structural soundness for function (whatever they are integrated to be).
 
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Wouldn't their options just turn into TSLA options at the prescribed conversion factor like ours do?

If not, I expect they'd be issued TSLA options.
These are goal based package issued for a standalone company. I don't see them issued $120M package at Tesla specially when it's Tesla's storage is creating the so called synergy. The stock underperformance must erase some of those paper money anyways.

I believe if Rives stay, they will report to JB. Complete speculation but I think it makes sense.
 
These are goal based package issued for a standalone company. I don't see them issued $120M package at Tesla specially when it's Tesla's storage is creating the so called synergy. The stock underperformance must erase some of those paper money anyways.

I believe if Rives stay, they will report to JB. Complete speculation but I think it makes sense.

"SolarCity options and restricted stock unit awards will be converted into corresponding equity awards in respect of Tesla common stock based on the Exchange Ratio, with the awards retaining the same vesting and other terms and conditions as in effect immediately prior to consummation of the Merger (except for certain founder options granted in 2015 which will be cancelled for no consideration).
 
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"SolarCity options and restricted stock unit awards will be converted into corresponding equity awards in respect of Tesla common stock based on the Exchange Ratio, with the awards retaining the same vesting and other terms and conditions as in effect immediately prior to consummation of the Merger (except for certain founder options granted in 2015 which will be cancelled for no consideration).
Correct. Lyndon Rive was allotted $77M ($128m total package for both brothers) in 2015 which will be erased.

Musk’s SolarCity Offer Wipes Out His Cousins’ Stock Options
 
That article was light on details about the Dow product. From my knowledge, there's only been a few shingle solar panels, and most of them suffered from just being bad products.

Just look at FlexsoLyt™ Solar Technology from Dow and tell me what you think in terms of a few generations of new products down the line. First, as they are, they are kind of, well, immature looking. Take that product line a few generations further, and suddenly it looks like it could use innovation, research, integration and design to make it into a more integrated product line.
I know there are some Chinese options, like these: Zhejiang Heda Solar Technology Co.,Ltd

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Yeah, there are definitely some options on the market.

But I'm not negative to Solar City/Tesla offering "beautiful" solar roofs. Even though integrated solar roofs aren't anything new, the way you sell them is important, as well as availability and pricing. I think Solar City is well positioned to leverage their size in the solar market to make integrated solar roofs much more compelling.
 
But I'm not negative to Solar City/Tesla offering "beautiful" solar roofs. Even though integrated solar roofs aren't anything new, the way you sell them is important, as well as availability and pricing.

So is efficiency. All of these have so far been relatively low efficiency.

A Tesla warranty all the way solar panel-inverter-controller-battery storage-EVSE-BEV and installation(including mounting hardware) is a big deal IMO.

No fighting between manufactures and between manufactures and installers on who is at fault if something goes wrong.

One company, one phone call, one service call. Easy peasy.
 
Did anyone notice James Albertine state that Model 3 reservations are up to 450,000 ? It's at about 4m45s into the clip.

First time I've seen that number used. I wonder if it was just an extrapolatory guess or he knows something new? So close to the ER...

That is simply incorrect. An article mention JB straussel slipped on a radio interview that recent model 3 reservation number is closer 315-325k.
 
I'd like to go back a little bit to short term with this thread. Discussions on possible SolarCity product developments are probably better suited for a thread with a longer term outlook.

The next two days is really about the quarterly report. I feel the market is ready to ignore past performance. It basically shrugged off a pretty heavy miss on deliveries and I think it will do the same with financials (basically cash flow, earnings and gross margin) where Tesla also will under perform compared to expectations from just a month or two ago. Bears and shorts will continue to be frustrated that the stocks is basically ignoring these basics and is valued on future performance instead.

Key drivers for the stock price reaction are going to be guidance on current product line up going forward and timeline with regards to Model 3. Starting with the latter, I think Elon has a pretty good story to tell. Gigafactory is basically where he told the market is was going to be and he had the party to show it. Model 3 design is pencils down according to their own words. The market will tolerate not seeing the results for now but I suspect that over the following months the pressure will be mounting on Tesla to reveal more of the final design. I don't think they can survive the conference call without at least giving some insights on continuing model 3 reservations. Anything under 400k will disappoint, anything over 450k will be a surprise.

Wrt to guidance for the full year. At current order rates, Tesla is not going to make it : they miss a couple thousands. So either they have to pull an additional demand lever or they'll have to revise slightly downwards towards 75k-85k. I feel they will double down on the guidance this quarter because they were still committed to it when they released Q2 delivery numbers and nothing materially changed between then and now. A revision towards 75k, should it come to that, is still small enough to plausible claim it became only a reportable event for the last quarter.
 
Another critical piece of information to reveal at the ER will be current production rate and incoming orders, as well as production and deliveries guidance for Q3.

I do not believe we have enough information to conclude whether meeting current 80-90K guidance will require pulling additional demand levers or not.
 
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