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It might be important to mention Tesla will be presenting on Aug 10, 2016 at the JPMorgan Auto Conference.
The critical thing is, can TSLA still be able to sell $50M+ ZEV credit each quarter if they want to? Have the policies changed to a point that they can't sell that much ZEV? ZEV is not that much in terms of total revenue, but plays quite an important role in determining whether they can make eps+ or - historically.
3Victoria
Active Member
Re ZEV credits ... The regulations are being watered down such that the companies don't need to buy credits because they can achieve the necessary watered down standards. EMs point is that that is no way to achieve the goals of reduced pollution. This appears to be a pattern: set hard goals in the future but relax them as the deadline approaches. Good ol' lobbying by big oil and big auto.
mmd
Active Member
TE was supposed to be shipping since last summer, according to Tesla. Now, we hear that the design is not complete and it's too complex, and (again!) hitting production constraints? I'm not getting it.
The question was on the pipeline of $400-$500 M guided revenue. No answer.
This is going to be a repeat of other conference calls. Those of us that actually listen are jumping up and down for joy. The rest of the world just reads headlines about Tesla missing deliveries and double the cash burn. We get to buy more stock at a discount, and make TONS of money in 2 years. LOVE IT!
The good thing about this for Tesla investors is that it allows other automakers to fall even farther behind Tesla, making the idea of Tesla becoming a 1 Trillion dollar company even more likely.
$$$Those who are short Tesla are doomed. It is impossible for shorts to cover. When Solar-City merges with Tesla, the amount of shares of Tesla sold short will increase even further, making it even more impossible for shorts to cover.
Only 500k shares were traded after hours. Wannabe analysts and journalists were calling this quarter a make or break quarter for Tesla. Almost everything released today was positive. I guess we'll need to wait until tomorrow to see what happens. Have any analysts chimed in yet?
Only 500k shares were traded after hours. Wannabe analysts and journalists were calling this quarter a make or break quarter for Tesla. Almost everything released today was positive. I guess we'll need to wait until tomorrow to see what happens.
Have any analysts chimed in yet?
racer26
Active Member
So... Semi and Minibus reveals next year (6-9 months sounds like Elon optimism, I'm betting more like 9-12 months from now.)
But... we keep hearing a whole lot of nothing about Model Y and its reveal. 3 and Y are expected to have similar price points and demand curves to each other, much like S/X do today... and 3/Y come on the same platform, like S/X kind of do (though not as much as originally planned) today.
We've known Y has been on Elon's radar for some time, which makes me think its much further along the development process than anyone knows, and he just confirmed for us that its the next fruit up the tree, well ahead of Semi/Minibus. I think minibus comes before Semi, since its simply a different cabin glued on top of an X chassis. I expect the order of the new product launches we know about will be 3 (mid2017), Y(either mid2017 with 3, or early2018 on its own), Minibus(late 2018), Semi(mid2019)
I'm thinking we get to see an alpha prototype of a Y at the 3 reveal part deux, or possibly at a separate event later this year. After all, if its built on the same platform, I have to believe the factory will be designed to be able to spit out a 3 or Y as needed from the get go.
I don't understand the posters yammering about S demand. Its probably going to end up around 1000 to 1500 cars each per week, with a bit of extra until other, more affordable EV options like 3 and Y come along. We know that historically, USA accounts for about half of the worldwide sales. We know that in 2015, the US market for full-size luxury sedans was about 100,000 units. We know that in 2015, Tesla owned about 25% of the market. We know that they're on track to grow 50% y/y. Assuming that they can meet the 80k unit guidance number, and assuming that the total size of the market for full-size luxury sedans is essentially unchanged (it actually shrunk by 1% in 2015 relative to 2014), that puts them at around 40% market share in the US. How many more Model S cars than 40k (assuming 50/50 S/X split) do you realistically expect them to sell when they're competing with about 6 other marques some of whom have 2 vehicles in this segment?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Electrifying
Member
Question for board. From the balance sheet / liabilities section I saw customer deposits stood at $680 million. If we exclude around $400M from Model 3 reservations, and assume the average deposit for Model X/S is $7000, that means the customers order backlog is around $280M/$7K = 40K cars . Is this true? Does this mean they already have 80% of the planned deliveries for Q3 and Q4 in the bag? If yes, that's great news.
P.S. For US the deposit is $2500 for S and $5000 for X, but for China the deposit can be $35,000 for X.
P.S. For US the deposit is $2500 for S and $5000 for X, but for China the deposit can be $35,000 for X.
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Nice find! From the delivery estimate thread, it does line up with late Sept for US deliveries, and Q4 for others. Let's see if production can keep up.
Good catch. Was looking for that. That is extremely significant.
Does it mention how much Tesla received from ZEV credits? Is it possible for Tesla to defer income from ZEV credits in the quarter they are sold? I find it interesting that Tesla is downplaying any profit from ZEV credits. It didn't even come up in the Q&A.
dandurston
Member
I could easily be wrong here, but I think a lot of this is attributable to customers paying for their car before it's delivered, at which point the money goes from a deposit to earned revenue. It is possible to pay in full at delivery, but a lot of people pay days or weeks ahead when Tesla asks them to. On average Tesla is delivering ~2000 cars/wk now, so if the average person pays a week ahead of time then Tesla is sitting on $200 million in deposits from this (2000 cars x $100g ASP).
Everything except for the actual numbers.
Depends if you care about results vs. fairy tale promises.
Missed EPS by only 100%
Missed revenue
A wonderful quarter!
Based on promises they will hit $1,000,000,000 in no time!
Totally agree. If they don't recall them there might not be enough Yays for the deal to pass.
I just don't see them pulling individuals without being requested (though they have the right to, but why would they piss off their shorting customers any more than already will have?).
It's not like that. Customer deposit includes the money customer paid in full while waiting for delivery. By end of Q2, there were record 5000 cars in transit, so the customer paid in full money should be no less than Q1. But if you compare the Q1 customer deposit which doesn't include M3 deposit, it's 391M. As you calculated, excluding M3, the Q2 customer deposit is only 280M.
That is what happens when you move the time table up 2 years on the Gigafactory, and accelerate Model 3 ramp, and build one new store EVERY 4 Days! AWESOME! This is what any smart investor wants. At 1,000,000 Model 3 cars per year, you are talking about 10 Billion in PROFITS PER YEAR from the Model 3 production line alone. What idiot would not want to spend an extra 2 Billion once now to make 10 Billion every year after that? If you actually read the shareholder letter and listen to the conference call, you see that everything is great with Tesla. 67% increase in orders compared to one year ago. No other car company can say that. In fact, Tesla competitor cars from BMW, Audi, Mercedes, and Porsche sales continue to plummet. The headlines about losses are for fools who don't do any research, and fools and their money are soon parted!
Wow, Tesla requires that you pay in full while waiting for delivery!
That is interesting. Never seen that in a premium car market before - usually just a $1-2k deposit which is partially or fully refundable.
Who else does this?
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