Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[esk8mw]

Question is - did China suddenly get Tesla hungry? Or, was the 5150 all cars including inventory/marketing/demo/MFG/etc but stated to be "customer cars"? One thing is "if we build it they will buy it" so perhaps they consider all cars customer cars - or if a sales manager at a Tesla store orders inventory, they are also a "customer"?

That is a ridiculous reading of the statement. "In total, 5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter and will be delivered in early Q3."

If you want to read "customer-ordered cars" to mean inventory and loaners, I don't even know how to respond to that. Go ahead and trade on that theory if you want.

 

[vgrinshpun]

July is actually very good compared with Jan or April according to InsideEV.

That was my point

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think the one and only red flag I have is that registrations tracked in EU trend lower or on par with prior quarters, insideEVs numbers for us too, so... Where are the >2k cars in the pipeline compared to prior quarters. China?

Actually, the difference in InsideEv estimate between July and April is 2150 - 800 = 1350. So 1350 of the extra 2K you were wondering about were delivered in US, and the rest will be split between Europe (we do not know registration numbers from all the contries) and Asia/Pacific. The red flag is actually not so red...

 

[schonelucht]

Question is - did China suddenly get Tesla hungry? Or, was the 5150 all cars including inventory/marketing/demo/MFG/etc but stated to be "customer cars"? One thing is "if we build it they will buy it" so perhaps they consider all cars customer cars - or if a sales manager at a Tesla store orders inventory, they are also a "customer"?

I believe the in transit cars where primarily for US customers. Hence why July InsideEV scorecoard is a historical record for first month. What happens normally is that one or two weeks before the end of the quarter, Tesla switched to international orders. This depresses US orders in the next month. This June however Tesla kept building cars for the US right until the very last day. This is easily verifiable in the tracking spreadsheet.

So I do believe that the 5150 cars are really customer orders. But the increase from the regular 2600 or so weren't international but US orders.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Soo...

We are essentially flat, on pedestrian volume (may be ending the day at less than 3M shares traded) after the "money loosing" enterprise "bled red" all over Q2, again. The question is from whom short sellers plan to buy shares when time comes because of the recall? And most importantly at which price? This is not going to be pretty.

"UNWISE"

 

[koolkool]

What's would be the new information, given that SCTY preannounced operating results on August 1?

I can't seem to find these pre-announced results. Can someone please point me in the right direction?

 

[mrdoubleb]

At the end of June everybody here was expecting a beat of delivery numbers, based on what Elon said there were 1400 cars were produced at the last week of Q1 but not delivered. At that time I checked the InsideEVs numbers, found they were so low, and cannot imagine the beat was gonna happen. However, I listened to people here with their cheers. Then the number came out and the bad effects are still here today.

That`s one way to look at it.

On the grand scheme of things though, it`s not that big of an issue. True, that most of us were thinking Q2 is "it", it`s the month when Tesla may even show FCF positive. Well, we were 1 quarter off.
If the miss would be due to continued production issues or crumbling demand, that would be a different story. However they have reaffirmed now a number of times, that this was due to the later than expected ramp.
Yesterday Tesla also reaffirmed Q3/4 delivery targets, continued, sustained rate of 2k cars per week and on track to go up to 2400 by EOY. All that just shy of half way into Q3.
Now, you can assume they are lying in their ER and their CC (= fraud), but I for one believe Q3 will deliver and will be unexpected, shockingly good news to most of the world outside TMC.

PS: As some have calculated, somewhere around 2k cars per week Tesla is FCF positive. I bet that`s not know at all outside TMC either.

 

[Sparky]

Soo...

We are essentially flat, on pedestrian volume (may be ending the day at less than 3M shares traded) after the "money loosing" enterprise "bled red" all over Q2, again. The question is from whom short sellers plan to buy shares when time comes because of the recall? And most importantly at which price? This is not going to be pretty.

"UNWISE"

I re-entered with a small purchase at ~$223 today but probably won't buy much more until next week. Perhaps we're entering a quiescent month.
I just don't like fresh TSLA shares on Fridays. Makes my weekend less relaxing.

 

[vgrinshpun]

OK, just for the kicks, I am going to suppress my gag reflux and start monitoring Pravda to see if Mark Speigel going to fly to Moscow to sit down for a fire chat with Putin on all the horrible things that Tesla represents. Because, you know, Mark can use every sympathetic ear he can get these days...

 

[brian45011]

Could you explain from where you are getting this? Q1 letter doesn't say that M3 deposits were part of customer deposit figure. It only says, it was included in receivables.

Receivables are on the asset side of the balance sheet, deposits are the offsetting entry on the liability side. Deposits are accrued, some amount of payments by check likely were made before mid-night 3/31/16. The 150k is an extrapolation of the curve in the Model # reservation thread.

 

[justdoit]

These are results for the first month of the quarter, which historically are low compared to the second and last month of the quarter. Compare July InsideEV estimate to January or April to get a better picture...

Exactly. And they even said this "While it is too early to tell for sure, it appears as though Tesla is determined to post a “beat” for sales expectations for Q3, and they are likely going to accomplish it on the back of prioritizing Model S production, especially with the 60 kWh version."
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[dandurston]

I can't seem to find these pre-announced results. Can someone please point me in the right direction?

See here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...2AB74/SCTY_News_2016_8_1_General_Releases.pdf

They installed 201 MWh vs. guidance of 185 MW (+8.6%). Bookings were up 40% over Q1 (which was terrible) to an okay 225 MW. Full year guidance revised downward to 0.9 - 1.0 GW (vs. 1.0 - 1.1 GW) which looks semi-bad but does help the books since growth is really expensive due to fronting the cost for all these systems.

In Q1 their cost per watt skyrocketed (from ~$2.75 in Q4 to $3.18 in Q1) due to really high sales costs (well more like flat sales costs vs severely reduced sales) causing a per watt increase in sales costs from $0.54 in Q1 to $0.98. This is one area where the Tesla merger should really help via Tesla stores. Due to improved bookings, SCTY says there was a significant improvements in sales cost per watt in Q2 (maybe down to $0.70 from $.98) so total cost per watt should be much better under $3.

Loan purchases (vs. leases) seem to be popular, which helps SCTY with short term cash flows and profitability since the payback is immediate.

SCTY plans two big product releases in late 2016: An integrated solar/storage product, and new solar roofing (e.g. shingles) for new homes.

Overall the books should look pretty good because slower growth moves them closer to profitability.

 

[brian45011]

During Q1 ER Q&A call, it was said by Jason W. that because 3/31 reservations were done by credit card, they were not transferred funds until the next day (4/1) so couldn't be counted as a true deposit.

Wheeler said only: "This is Jason. The only thing I'd add to that is we did draw $430 million on the ABL this quarter. A lot of that was we had a large amount of cash in transit at the end of the quarter."

He's referring to cash, deposits are accrued and the accrual for Model 3 in Q1 was a minimum of $115 million, so ($679.8 - $391.4) = $288.4 million increase. Eliminating the likely effect of Model 3 deposits, ($373 -$115) = $258 million, means the deposit balance increased ~$30 million for other reasons. With 5,100 in transit, some to fill the X pipeline to Asia, it appears there is no discernible change to backlog either way, especially since the Chinese tariffs/duties are collected before the cars are shipped.
.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Baird's Ben Kallo reiterates Outperform, $338 PT (via StreetInsider)

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $338 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying while Q2 missed the production ramp and long-term goals are in focus.

Kallo commented, "Q2 revenue was in line with our estimate, but TSLA missed on EPS with higher-than-expected OPEX. Additionally, gross margin missed consensus estimates and was pressured during the quarter with the Model S refresh and X ramp, but automotive gross margin improved sequentially, which was better than we expected. Importantly, TSLA reaffirmed its 2H:16 delivery target of ~50k vehicles, expects margins to ramp in 2H:16 given higher manufacturing efficiency, and the Model 3 remains on track for 2H:17 production."

For Q3, they expect TSLA to deliver ~12k Model S and ~9k Model X vehicles, generating ~$2.07B in revenue, and ~$0.00 in EPS. For 2016, we estimate revenue of ~$8.21B and EPS of ($0.39) vs. our previous estimates of $8.34B/$0.00, respectively.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

 

[EinSV]

Used the usual mid-day (ET) attempted SP beatdown that @Papafox has documented to add to my long-term shares. Hopefully the price action since then is a sign of things to come ....

 

[vgrinshpun]

Going vertical??

Next resistance is 235.28 from 7/29...

 

[ggr]

I like the shape of the curve at the moment...

 

[electracity]

Maybe the gap is simply a function of Tesla timeline vs reality timeline?

It's a lot of money. Payment timing would tend to both increase and decrease quarterly capex.

My guess is that they are conserving capex to be able to time Musk mild capital raise with some good news next year. After they release AP 2.0, or perhaps show more model 3, Musk can issue more stock.

I'm sure that part of Musk's volumetric efficiency kick is not to maximize profitability, but to minimize capex over the next couple of years.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Would be nice if we could finish the day above 230.

 

[BornToFly]

I like the shape of the curve at the moment...

The steep ramp of an exponential curve...