Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[RobStark]

down the line there may be heavy pressure to do something about the supercharger network if all works out as successfully as we might hope.

I hope there is anti-trust action regarding the Supercharger Network one day.

It means I am filthy rich!

 

[tander]

I would be greatly surprised if the SEC has a problem with this merger. However, and pardon a long-term thought here, down the line there may be heavy pressure to do something about the supercharger network if all works out as successfully as we might hope. I remember in the Eisenhower Administration the cozy relationship between DuPont and GM was sundered.

I wonder if the SEC could already be evaluating the merger since the two boards have already voted for it?

 

[AlMc]

I wonder if the SEC could already be evaluating the merger since the two boards have already voted for it?

I have been trying to put together the time table on this whole process as well. Far smarter people than I have put in their two cents worth and to the best of my knowledge (please correct my assertions if they are incorrect) the SEC can be gathering information at this time but that it could take up to four months to *accept* this merger.

From what I can gather this process can go on during the 45 day 'go shop' period.

This certainly puts us well into Q4 before any vote will take place.

 

[MartinAustin]

Something weird is going on at the factory. New orders with Grey leather seats (which are only available on Model S... never on Model X) won't be delivered for a year, even in the USA!!!

Possible SKU updates coming?

 

[vgrinshpun]

The motor is sealed and has no airflow through it that I'm aware of. The periphery of the rotor can only be cooled by the transfer of heat through the air gap to the stator and then to the cooling jacket. Spinning the rotor in a sealed gas pocket where all the gas is at the same temperature seems as if it would have no effect on heat transfer. As for the center cooling, it's simply a tube with liquid in it. The flow of coolant through that tube removes heat, spinning the tube has little to no effect that I can see.

The fact that Tesla drivetrain motor is sealed and have forced cooling is immaterial to this discussion. In fact, one of the most common motor enclosures types is TENV (totally enclosed non-ventilated). The air circulating inside the motor is separated from the ambient, similarly to motor in Tesla drivetrain. The only difference is that for TENV motor it is cooled naturally via heat transfer between it's enclosure and ambient, while enclosure of Tesla drivetrain motor is forced cooled by liquid. The TENV motors, as the motors with other types of enclosures, have different cooling rates for running and stopped conditions. I do not want to go too deep into technical discussion, but this is the basis for motor thermal modeling. Both running and stopped motor cooling time constants are available from motor manufacturer's upon request. Running cooling time constant is always less than stopped cooling time constant, due to the difference in the rate of cooling that I was referring to. You can check these references for additional information (or simply google "running motor cooling time constant" and "stopped motor cooling time constant"):
https://www.l-3.com/private/ge_multilin/ge_multilin_motor_protection_seminar.pdf
http://www.gegridsolutions.com/multilin/family/motors/motor_thermal_model.pdf

 

[CButterK]

Something weird is going on at the factory. New orders with Grey leather seats (which are only available on Model S... never on Model X) won't be delivered for a year, even in the USA!!!

Possible SKU updates coming?

It's more interesting that mid 2017 delivery is only on the grey color next gen seats, and not the tan or black color next gen seats. so it appears they're not discontinuing the seat itself, just the grey color is delayed. Does that mean they ran out of grey cows? I was seriously considering switching one of my M3 orders to a MS with grey leather, but not sure now if mid 2017 delivery is indeed accurate...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Correct 13.4 million of the 14.2 million increase was attributable to the secondary and Elon's option exercise.

Depending on whether you think the "charity" sold the donated 1.2 million shares, only about half of the increase in the quarter was absorbed by institutions and insiders.

Just to clarify, this "about half" is not the final number, it could remain the same, go down, or up after all of the Q2 13F forms are filed. The deadline is actually tomorrow, and based on my previous experience it could take a little longer to see the NASDAQ TSLA "Institutional Holders" page to be updated. It currently shows that out of 15 institutions holding more than 1M TSLA shares total of 5 still did not report Q2 data.

 

[tander]

I have been trying to put together the time table on this whole process as well. Far smarter people than I have put in their two cents worth and to the best of my knowledge (please correct my assertions if they are incorrect) the SEC can be gathering information at this time but that it could take up to four months to *accept* this merger.

From what I can gather this process can go on during the 45 day 'go shop' period.

This certainly puts us well into Q4 before any vote will take place.

Yeah it'd be nice to have some more definitive info on this, but I guess it will come eventually. I'm guessing they are aiming for 4Q to complete the merger since I assume it will take time to execute the plan and deal with all the logistics/personnel stuff and merge the books, which would hopefully leave Q3 the possibility of good looking numbers that doesn't confuse analysts. My guess is SEC approval, holder of record date and vote in September, and the merger completed by the end of the year.

 

[AlMc]

Another merger that was announced about the same time and has much cross pollination of major share holders/influential people on both companies ( Larry Ellison) is Oracle and NetSuite. Will be interesting to see if the timetable for SEC approval of that deal is similar to TM/SolarCity.

 

[JRP3]

In fact, one of the most common motor enclosures types is TENV (totally enclosed non-ventilated). The air circulating inside the motor is separated from the ambient, similarly to motor in Tesla drivetrain. The only difference is that for TENV motor it is cooled naturally via heat transfer between it's enclosure and ambient, while enclosure of Tesla drivetrain motor is forced cooled by liquid. The TENV motors, as the motors with other types of enclosures, have different cooling rates for running and stopped conditions.

TENV motors have fins on the ends of the rotor and a larger air pocket and no other way to cool the rotor. I'm not sure how applicable that is to the liquid cooled Tesla rotor with no fins.

Not to mention the rotational speed differential between a decelerating Tesla motor and your hypothetical motor with a clutch that allows freewheeling is not the same as the difference between a spinning rotor and a stopped rotor. So even if TENV cooling parameters did apply to Tesla's motors I'm not sure there would be a significant difference in cooling between a freewheeling rotor and a decelerating rotor.

 

[vgrinshpun]

TENV motors have fins on the ends of the rotor and a larger air pocket and no other way to cool the rotor. I'm not sure how applicable that is to the liquid cooled Tesla rotor with no fins.

Not to mention the rotational speed differential between a decelerating Tesla motor and your hypothetical motor with a clutch that allows freewheeling is not the same as the difference between a spinning rotor and a stopped rotor. So even if TENV cooling parameters did apply to Tesla's motors I'm not sure there would be a significant difference in cooling between a freewheeling rotor and a decelerating rotor.

The point is that for ANY motor (TENV is just closer to Tesla drivetrain design than other enclosure types, fins are there to improve cooling, and obviously are not used in the forced cooling design) cooling time constant when stopped is much longer than when motor is running. This demonstrates that cooling IS dependent on the rotational speed.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Can we move the discussion on motor heat elsewhere? I'm not even sure if it's relevant to the investor section let alone the short-term thread and it's gone on for two pages now.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Do you realize that using batteries to replace peakers is the same thing as time shifting? The batteries would be charged when power is cheapest and most abundant and generate power during times of peak use.

A major advantage of battery storage compared to peakers is that they can be economically deployed for normal daily peaks (time shifting) when they won't be required for the peaks that peakers are normally reserved for. In other words they will be used fore time shifting, backup power and frequency regulation, in that order.

Actually time shifting is not the same as peaker service replacement. Time shifting is defined as (DOE/EPRI Electricity Storage Handbook, Para. 1.1):

"Electric energy time-shift involves purchasing inexpensive electric energy, available during periods when prices or system marginal costs are low, to charge the storage system so that the stored energy can be used or sold at a later time when the price or costs are high. Alternatively, storage can provide similar time-shift duty by storing excess energy production, which would otherwise be curtailed, from renewable sources such as wind or photovoltaic (PV)."

Primary purpose of the peaker plant is to generate electricity when peak demand occurs.

 

[racer26]

But... Using batteries instead of a peaker plant is by its very nature a time shifting action. Just, instead of shifting usage, it's shifting demand from a peak time, so it can supplied by generation in an off peak time.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Using batteries to charge and then discharge is by definition ALWAYS time shifting action. But the usage cases have strict definitions and Electric Energy Time Shift is defined differently than peaker services replacement. It is somewhat counterintuitive - please read Chapter 1 of the Handbook I linked above if you'd like more insight.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Well, OK, but I could concoct any improvement number based on increases and improvements. The question is, do you have anything to back up the 20-30% claim? To me that sounds high, but I really have no idea the efficiencies that the GF will bring by, say, end of 2017, or end of 2018. Was hoping to read something concrete. Has Tesla made any claims?

Okay, to look a bit closer at the energy density, first, you have the increase in cell length. Tesla has already said that the height of the pack wouldn't be changed, so that's an 70 / 65 -1 = ~8% increase.

Now, the increase in area due to the increase in diameter, while assuming the metal cylinder takes 1 mm of the diameter is: (pi x 9.5^2) / (pi x 8^2) - 1 = 41% But this increase reduces the amount of cells you can fit into the pack.

A pack module is 28 cm x 66 cm, Looking at the width, you have 14 cells, and looking at the length, you have 32 cells. That's 90% of the width of the module, or 87% of the length.

Switching to 21-70s will increase the cell density, as you can probably drop a loop of cooling piping and space them better. Doing some rough calculations, you can probably fit 13 cells into the width and 28 cells in the length. That's approximately 360 cells, vs 444 in the 18650-based pack module (6s60p). The increase in total area would be (360 / 444) x 1.41 -1 = ~14%

And the total increase in volumetric energy density would be 1.14 x 1.08 - 1 = ~23%

 

[Yggdrasill]

I have to revise my numbers a bit. I think 13 cells in the width is a bit too much, 12 is more realistic. So, maybe 336 cells (6s56p). (This is an even number, which makes more sense, as you can reduce the amount of coolant loops from four to three.)

The increase in total area would be (336 / 444) x 1.41 - 1 = ~7% And the total increase in volumetric energy density would be 1.07 x 1.08 - 1 = ~15%

This means a 100 kWh Model S/X could become a 115 kWh Model S/X, a 6.4 kWh Powerwall could become a 7.4 kWh Powerwall, and a 100 kWh Powerpack could become a 115 kWh Powerpack.

Edit:

Also, just to add my estimates for the Model 3. I think it's pretty clear that the modules in the Model 3 will be significantly bigger. Assuming that they go from three to four cooling loops (12 to 16 cells), the width will be around 37 cm, and the pack width will be around 148 cm.

From the launch video, it seems like the pack length (2 modules) will be only slightly greater than the pack width (4 modules), so I'm assuming 1.6 meters. The module length should then be 80 cm. That should allow for around 34 cells. So each pack module should be around 540 cells, or 12s45p.

A Model S would have 5760 cells while a Model 3 would have 4320 cells. The top spec Model 3 would be approximately 85 kWh and have an EPA range of ~310 miles.

 

[Papafox]

We closed up slightly on Friday, with hints of 100kwh battery and Autopilot 2.0 hardware not being far away. Friday's regular-hours trading ended with a nice half point jump up for TSLA in the final minutes, indicating that some investors (who knows if they are longs or shorts) wanted to acquire shares prior to Monday morning's trading. We often see a positive bump for TSLA in the first hour of trading on a Monday, as rookie investors who have contemplated the purchase over the weekend choose to buy in. Three of the past five Mondays have been quite positive, and longs are showing far less fear than shorts these days. At the moment, futures for the NASDAQ are up for Monday. I'm inclined to believe Monday morning could be good for TSLA, but it's just a guess. Don't be surprised if shorts give us a stab down into the red shortly after opening. Personally, I would regard this as a buying opportunity, unless there's bad news to support it. Looking forward to the trading.

 

[Robertj]

November: Next gen 21-70-based Powerwall and Powerpack. Possibly 20-30% increased capacity. Possibly in

Considering that in the 2nd Quarter shareholder earnings release, Elon stated that he is expecting sales in Q4
And of those sales heavily in November & December then an exponential ramp

Based on that , the product release would need to be at least a month , maybe 2 months prior to sales in November
December

That would suggest at the latest a product release late September

 

[schonelucht]

That would suggest at the latest a product release late September

Considering Tesla's track record let me suggest a humble alternative : a slip in the announced ramp up schedule.