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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I'd expect 30-50k cars/year for the first year and then for demand to grow from there if two things happen: 1) if GM can continue to improve the Bolt, 2) they can incrementally lower cost, 3) more long distance charging becomes available.
And 4) Chevy's independent dealers actually make any attempt to sell the Bolt.
 
Who is stupid enough to spend 37.5k buy this crap at base trim?

Well said. You must also be wondering who are all the "stupid" people buying 4 door sedans for $20K to go from point A to point B, when they could be buying a top of the line P100 for $150K. Its only $130K more to accomplish the same task, but seriously, if they don't have $130K more to spend for basic transportation they need to jump off a cliff. And, who are these morons buying what they want with their own hard earned money when they should be asking you for car buying advice?
 
Hey Dave, I concur on "No more execution mistakes, delays and misses". I also think Bolt is more than a compliance car. I think GM and others still have the dealer anchor round their necks and lack of volume battery production also remains a drag. I've been lookin for info on others building capacity and if you have some specifics, please share... very important stuff.

As I said earlier Bolt and others still missing the fast charge solution and the fact that the tech for battery and power electronics has been farmed out still gives me pause as to commitment from GM. To be sure, I think they'll sell every Bolt they can build (after bribing the dealers) and from what the Woz sez, they have a kewl interface.

All in all I think it will add to Tesla's market as awareness of long distance/fast charge solutions become more well understood by the EV buying public, which, will buy a little more time for limited competition. But, as you noted this should be notice to Tesla that there ain't no more room for mistakes.

Fire Away!:rolleyes:
Hi Dave! Yeah I don't see volume battery production an issue for the Bolt. Production will slowly ramp and LG Chem (and possibly others) will have plenty of time to add new plants online. An example, it only takes LG Chem 18 months to make a new battery factory (LG Chem plans to build electric car battery factory in Poland - source). BYD and Samsung SDI have aggressive plans as well. They will scale battery production to match EV demand.
 
Well said. You must also be wondering who are all the "stupid" people buying 4 door sedans for $20K to go from point A to point B, when they could be buying a top of the line P100 for $150K. Its only $130K more to accomplish the same task, but seriously, if they don't have $130K more to spend for basic transportation they need to jump off a cliff. And, who are these morons buying what they want with their own hard earned money when they should be asking you for car buying advice?
A 0-60 2.5S ICE sedan sold at 1 million dollars


so 130k is sooo cheap

even a 30K mustang can easily beat bolt to death with much larger size

got it?
 
How many model 3 reservation holders will lease a Bolt while waiting for their M3? I know I am tempted. I won't do it because I'm too cheap, but I am very tempted. I think many out there will pull the trigger on a two-year lease if offered.

Edit: Most of us who are not in one of the preferred M3 categories probably won't see it in our driveway until mid 2018 at the earliest.
 
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A 0-60 2.5S ICE sedan sold at 1 million dollars


so 130k is sooo cheap

even a 30K mustang can easily beat bolt to death with much larger size

got it?

Not the same class. Chevy has the Camaro to compete with the Mustang. The Bolt's objective was not to beat the Mustang at a drag strip or a race track. If you don't get it, then you don't get, but please don't call people stupid for buying what they want with their own money. You can call me any name you want when I ask you to pay for my car. Must be late in Germany. Have a good rest of the day, bud.
 
How many model 3 reservation holders will lease a Bolt while waiting for their M3? I know I am tempted. I won't do it because I'm too cheap, but I am very tempted. I think many out there will pull the trigger on a two-year lease if offered.

Edit: Most of us who are not in one of the preferred M3 categories probably won't see it in our driveway until mid 2018 at the earliest.
At the production numbers GM has pegged the Bolt at (~25k annually in North America), I'd be surprised if you can really get a Bolt before a M3. Only time will tell.
 
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Well said. You must also be wondering who are all the "stupid" people buying 4 door sedans for $20K to go from point A to point B, when they could be buying a top of the line P100 for $150K. Its only $130K more to accomplish the same task, but seriously, if they don't have $130K more to spend for basic transportation they need to jump off a cliff. And, who are these morons buying what they want with their own hard earned money when they should be asking you for car buying advice?

I think you missed his point.

Chevy Sonic, which is ostensibly pretty much the same car as Chevy Bolt, is $15k. Bolt is $37.5k. I'm paying 22.5k premium for the fact that it is an EV. Sonic has a higher top speed (but slower 0-60). The implication is that they are comparable on grounds of being pretty much the same car, and so paying 2.5x the price for a functionally similar product is crazy. If you buy into Elon's mentality that there is no such thing as an "EV market", and that EVs need to compete against ICEVs of similar class, then the Bolt fails miserably and is a terrible buy.

MS P100D at ~$135k is comparable to $1M-plus supercars such as Porsche 918 and LaFerrari on performance. If that level of performance is attractive to you, then MS P100D should be very attractive, at about 10% of the price tag. Comparing it to a 20k Corolla or Civic is disingenuous. That's like comparing a SR-71 to a Cessna 172 and saying they're comparable because they're both planes.

TM3 will be primarily competing against the BMW 3-series. In PxxD trim, I expect it will compare favourably to the M3, and in base trim, it will compare favourably to a 328. Comparing TM3 to Bolt is laughable. They're totally different class cars.
 
Not the same class. Chevy has the Camaro to compete with the Mustang. The Bolt's objective was not to beat the Mustang at a drag strip or a race track. If you don't get it, then you don't get, but please don't call people stupid for buying what they want with their own money. You can call me any name you want when I ask you to pay for my car. Must be late in Germany. Have a good rest of the day, bud.

Which 37.5K ICE car bolt can beat? give me a name
BOLT's same class is Chevy Sonic whose msrp is 15K
 
While cameras are relatively cheap, radar units probably aren't. Not sure the sensor package is cheap enough by 2017/2018. Would be nice though.
Lidar has fallen from $75k to about $250 in 2015:
The $75,000 problem for self-driving cars is going away
December 2015
LIDAR, a sensor most in the field view as essential to giving a car the gift of sight, can cost more than twice as much as the vehicle itself. A popular early model from Velodyne, used by many, costs $75,000.
<Snip>
Quanergy chief executive Louay Edlada believes LIDAR will cost below $100 in five years. It’s releasing a solid state LIDAR — meaning none of the parts move — next month for $250.
The last driver license holder
June 2016
technologies are also advancing rapidly, and prices are dropping. Modern cars are equipped with hundreds of sensors, including radar, cameras, GPS and accelerometers. Additionally required sensors such as Lidar are predicted to drop to a few hundred dollars in the next few years.
I couldn't easily find similar information for radar, probably because radar is cheap enough that price is not seen as a barrier to widespread adoption. And with 500k M3's per year I'm sure that Tesla can get a good price. Maybe they plan to design and fab their own in order to drive the cost down.
As far as the range goes, Model 3 will probably have 55kWh battery pack, 215 miles range in a single motor variant and will match Bolt range in dual motor variant while matching Bolt price.
Didn't anyone watch the M3 reveal video?! Everyone seems to think that 215 mile of range is a real figure:
about 10:20
...the range will be at least an EPA rating of 215 miles, I want to emphasize these are minimum numbers, we hope to exceed them.
Translation:
We are quoting the minimum acceptable (to Tesla) range. We are waiting until the M3 is close to production to announce the (much better) actual range because we don't want to Osborne MS-MX sales. Which is also why we are going to hide a substantial number of other features until the M3 is close to production.

Also, the Bolt is significant because GM (w/help of LG) has packed a 60kWh battery at a cell cost of ONLY $8700 ($145/kWh x 60kWh). And this cost is projected to go done significantly in several years.
Largely irrelevant, since the pack cost is about ($245/kWh x 60kWh) $14,700.

Also most of us IMO misinterpreted the 75kWh pack sold as a 60kWh pack as a margin killer, in other words as a problem for Tesla. The fact is that this is a clear indication of Tesla's lead in pre GF battery costs. Could any other OEM afford to do that, let alone make a profit doing it? Jeff quoted under $190 per kWh pack cost. I think their pack cost is $150-$170 per kWh.
 
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I think you missed his point.

Chevy Sonic, which is ostensibly pretty much the same car as Chevy Bolt, is $15k. Bolt is $37.5k. I'm paying 22.5k premium for the fact that it is an EV. Sonic has a higher top speed (but slower 0-60). The implication is that they are comparable on grounds of being pretty much the same car, and so paying 2.5x the price for a functionally similar product is crazy. If you buy into Elon's mentality that there is no such thing as an "EV market", and that EVs need to compete against ICEVs of similar class, then the Bolt fails miserably and is a terrible buy.

MS P100D at ~$135k is comparable to $1M-plus supercars such as Porsche 918 and LaFerrari on performance. If that level of performance is attractive to you, then MS P100D should be very attractive, at about 10% of the price tag. Comparing it to a 20k Corolla or Civic is disingenuous. That's like comparing a SR-71 to a Cessna 172 and saying they're comparable because they're both planes.

TM3 will be primarily competing against the BMW 3-series. In PxxD trim, I expect it will compare favourably to the M3, and in base trim, it will compare favourably to a 328. Comparing TM3 to Bolt is laughable. They're totally different class cars.


yes at 37.5K you can buy a top trim 7 seats ICE SUV

Cannot believe who will spend 37.5k buy a base trim yaris size egg car which can not drive long distance

bolt does not compete with model 3, it compete with same price ICE car
 
I predict Chevy will sell every Bolt they can make. Lots of cars around that price range have weak 4 cylinder engines and terrible auto transmissions. Electric motor + reduction gear paired with a large battery will be such a huge upgrade in performance and refinement/NVH it isn't even funny.

That said, at the Model 3 reveal, Elon mentioned that even the base Model 3 would be very nicely equipped, and that its base features would be better than other cars at it's price.

Look at the Bolt Trim Sheet on Chevy's website. Manually adjustable seats, on all trim levels. Turn Signal Blinkers on the side mirrors are part of the Premium Package, Need to buy optional upgrades for the driver assistance features, auto dimming interior mirror requires a package or trim upgrade, etc.
 
Lidar has fallen from $75k to about $250 in 2015:
The $75,000 problem for self-driving cars is going away

The last driver license holder

I couldn't easily find similar information for radar, probably because it is not so expensive that price is seen as a barrier to widespread adoption. Also with 500k M3's per year I'm sure that Tesla can get a good price. Maybe they plan to design and fab their own in order to drive the cost down.

Didn't anyone watch the M3 reveal video?! Everyone seems to think that 215 mile of range is a real figure:

Translation:
We are quoting the minimum acceptable (to Tesla) range. We are waiting until the M3 is close to production to announce the (much better) actual range because we don't want to Osborne MS-MX sales. Which is also why we are going to hide a substantial number of other features until the M3 is close to production.


Largely irrelevant, since the pack cost is about ($245/kWh x 60kWh) $14,700.

Also most of us IMO misinterpreted the 75kWh pack sold as a 60kWh pack as a margin killer, in other words as a problem for Tesla. The fact is that this is a clear indication of Tesla's lead in pre GF battery costs. Could any other OEM afford to do that, let alone make a profit doing it? Jeff quoted under $190 per kWh pack cost. I think their pack cost is $150-$170 per kWh.
Totally agree on the 215 as a minimum point. I thought that at the time of the reveal too - they were clearly stating a baseline that will only improve. My hope is that they initially release 2 sizes - 230-250 base trim and a 300+ top trim (with less for P version). Then, as demand dictates, they can drop in a smaller 210 or so range car for even less, like $25k, as they've done for S/X.
 
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