Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Muaddid]

Dear Canadians: Sorry for the whole flag-upside-down thing at the World Series a while back.

It's ok we slapped you pretty good this week on the hockey world cup

I would prefer seeing Tesla build a factory here ! but at least every person who buys a Tesla ends up indirectly sending less money to the world's hot spots and instead buys electricity (locally)... plus the whole global warming thing... and my portfolio

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think the dates also matter. Initially he was told delivery before Sep 30. Now around Oct 10. A clear difference.

Related to date - as Tesla doesn't have culture of negotiation and discounting, sales associates have no freedom to give discounts. So all they see are prices in the system. Current discounts are in the system (for cars produced and to be delivered in Q3), probably assigned by some data driven group in charge of delivering Q3 inventory push.

Problem this individual has may be as simple as getting to someone in HQ that can override price, or it may be more complicated.

Potentially, Tesla may be scared of creating a precedent, as there could be quite a few cars that may get pushed out. Worse yet:
Imagine (and this is just speculation), if this inventory clear-out has also a purpose of flushing the pipeline before change in production, starting October. New wiring harness, new sensors, whatever, something new, important is coming. Now, imagine word got out? Wouldn't it be a neat trick to place an order for Q3 with serious discount, and then postpone it, claiming some serious enough reason? I can see some people playing this game, perhaps not too many, maybe hundred(s), but amount of money at play is way over signing authority of some poor bureaucrat that makes choice to settle complain we discuss here. Perception is reality, and you know what newspaper titles are going to be, so question then becomes, what would Tesla do? Gives smart rascals that play game (order and delay) couple of $millions of discounts, or risk getting attacked in media, again!? So it could be ultimately a smart bureaucrat that's denying this request, one that cares about his job, though it makes him look heartless and makes Tesla look bureaucratic. Perhaps this situation gets resolved and guy gets his $3650 discount once we are in October?

Of course, this is speculation. I would not be surprised production change is coming though. If you get few Gs discount, can you really complain you missed out on the new hardware? This is a smart way to keep buyers of the last of old sensors happy.

And discounts are now present in Canada, but, it's a funny thing, cars that are discounted (75Ds), are discounted for the value of additional equipment, so there is still a nice margin for tesla there.

 

[GBleck]

For the 10/28 announcement, isn't it likely that when Elon says "Tesla charger" he means a Tesla provided inverter to charge the Powerwall from the solar panels?

Interesting take. Hard to definitively say if it is referring to a charge controller (charging the power wall cells from the panels) or a tesla car charger. My hope is dc output car charger. Tangible benefit for integration of solar pv in cost and energy. Also literally the first thing I thought of when merger was announced. Not sure if it would work though as my background is comp sci not electrical engineering. Just an enthusiastic hacker

 

[3Victoria]

I visited Tesla in Vancouver today. The sales department shut down early, but they let me look around. They told me they had sold all the cars including the two display cars!

 

[spacekadet]

How many cars do we think Tesla delivered this quarter and what number is the market expecting?

 

[MP3Mike]

For the 10/28 announcement, isn't it likely that when Elon says "Tesla charger" he means a Tesla provided inverter to charge the Powerwall from the solar panels?

I'm sure that a part of the package will be a Tesla created inverter, but I suspect he either means an integrated HPWC, or even better a "low power" Tesla Supercharger so that you can charge your car directly from the DC side of the solar system, or the Powerwall without any loss from an invertor converting it to AC, just so there can be more loss converting it back to DC. By doing that you would likely need a smaller, and cheaper, inverter to power the house. (Since charging a Tesla is likely the single largest load for any given house.)

I remember that at one point @wk057 was working on making his own DC/Supercharger for the exact same reason.

 

[FredTMC]

Hey, I might've missed someone's explanation but....where did all the MS inventory go today?!

There was over 500 cars listed this morning, and now CPO-EV is only showing 150 inventory MSs.

Thx

 

[dmckinstry]

I like Canadians too but one recently told a friend that in the event of a certain election result they might build a wall and charge Americans to build it.

Not a deal unless we get go on the Canadian side before it's built.

 

[Intl Professor]

I hate people who do this, from the gut, but from mine something seems afoot. (Surely Shakespeare had a better way to put it. Anyone?)

Edit: Did a quick google. Many wrong answers; phrase is common.

 

[geneclean55]

I hate people who do this, from the gut, but from mine something seems afoot. (Surely Shakespeare had a better way to put it. Anyone?)

Something pleasant?

 

[dandurston]

Hey, I might've missed someone's explanation but....where did all the MS inventory go today?!

There was over 500 cars listed this morning, and now CPO-EV is only showing 150 inventory MSs.

Thx

I was wondering that too. I saw 582 "new inventory" Model S last night, now there is 120. Either they sold them real fast, or they have a lot that can't be sold prior to month end so they're hanging onto them.

 

[Intl Professor]

Something pleasant?

Surely pleasant. I have a stainless steel stomach, Thai wife's a great cook and spicy personality too, especially after "A" in a public speaking class.

 

[FredTMC]

Hey, I might've missed someone's explanation but....where did all the MS inventory go today?!

There was over 500 cars listed this morning, and now CPO-EV is only showing 150 inventory MSs.

Thx

Seriously folks. Where did the inventory go?

Remember TSLA got SLAMMED this morning by an SA FUD article about these 500+ cars showing on Tesla. Now it's 120 inventory MS cars only.

Was anyone watching what happened?!

 

[FredTMC]

I was wondering that too. I saw 582 "new inventory" Model S last night, now there is 120. Either they sold them real fast, or they have a lot that can't be sold prior to month end so they're hanging onto them.

Thx. Yup. Or they may have them down temporarily for "re-pricing". I've seen this happen in the past.

 

[esk8mw]

I was following the inventory count throughout the day and it was decreasing at a pretty steady clip, but I'd say probably 300 cars got pulled at some point this evening. If you follow some of the deal threads you'll see some people are getting turned down for deals because it wouldn't be able to be delivered in time.

My gut says they put the entire enchilada up for sale this morning for one last day of mass selling. I read on one of these threads that a Canadian store sold literally every car, even both floor models! Then, they pull them off the website and only offer deals on a one-off basis to those who qualify/call in (i.e., live close enough to the car to take delivery before 10/1). I'm guessing there were concerns about angry customers if they were to see a good deal and then be told it can't be accommodated.

If I had to guess, I'd say the refresh inventory models will hit the website again on 10/1 with normal prices/discounts and it's back to the old pricing model. If there are any pre-refresh inventory models still floating around I bet those will still be able to be had for a solid deal.

 

[racer26]

460 cars in one day doesn't sound that unreasonable, necessarily. There are 95 open US Tesla stores. Each one sells 5 cars and you get there.

When you factor in the fact that Tesla's can't usually be had below retail price, and that the quarter end push is bringing some serious deals indeed, and that the word is getting out? Wouldn't surprise me if they actually did sell them.

 

[3Victoria]

"The game is afoot" -- Shakespeare, Sherlock Holmes. Interesting times

 

[DaveT]

More evidence that the $145/kWh cell price LG Chem is giving to Chevy for the Bolt is legit.

This is from a piece about the Kreisel brothers in Austria:

"Their 6,300 square-meter (68,000 square-foot) battery factory will open with initial capacity of 800 megawatt-hours a year, which can be doubled within three months. Kreisel expects to sell 50 million cells or more next year. That’s based on on the size of their lithium-ion configurations and may mean about 6,000 battery packs, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. As orders grow, Kreisel anticipates a steep drop in battery prices, from about $140 a kilowatt hour now to less than $100 a kilowatt-hour."

These Brothers Want to Take On Tesla With a Souped-Up Electric Car

 

[FredTMC]

I was following the inventory count throughout the day and it was decreasing at a pretty steady clip, but I'd say probably 300 cars got pulled at some point this evening. If you follow some of the deal threads you'll see some people are getting turned down for deals because it wouldn't be able to be delivered in time.

My gut says they put the entire enchilada up for sale this morning for one last day of mass selling. I read on one of these threads that a Canadian store sold literally every car, even both floor models! Then, they pull them off the website and only offer deals on a one-off basis to those who qualify/call in (i.e., live close enough to the car to take delivery before 10/1). I'm guessing there were concerns about angry customers if they were to see a good deal and then be told it can't be accommodated.

If I had to guess, I'd say the refresh inventory models will hit the website again on 10/1 with normal prices/discounts and it's back to the old pricing model. If there are any pre-refresh inventory models still floating around I bet those will still be able to be had for a solid deal.

Yep. Your explanation makes a ton of sense. I agree.

Thx

 

[vgrinshpun]

More evidence that the $145/kWh cell price LG Chem is giving to Chevy for the Bolt is legit.

This is from a piece about the Kreisel brothers in Austria:

"Their 6,300 square-meter (68,000 square-foot) battery factory will open with initial capacity of 800 megawatt-hours a year, which can be doubled within three months. Kreisel expects to sell 50 million cells or more next year. That’s based on on the size of their lithium-ion configurations and may mean about 6,000 battery packs, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. As orders grow, Kreisel anticipates a steep drop in battery prices, from about $140 a kilowatt hour now to less than $100 a kilowatt-hour."

These Brothers Want to Take On Tesla With a Souped-Up Electric Car

Not necessarily. The key is whether they use cylindrical cells or not.
Cylindrical cells have currently price advantage. If Kreisel using cylindrical cells, this price quote does not tell much about the cell pricing for Bolt.