Krugerrand
Meow
There would be no contradiction if you didn't make the assumption that Elon let the cat out of the bag. That's the point. Your assumption leads to the contradiction. Make a new assumption and then the contradiction disappears.
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There would be no contradiction if you didn't make the assumption that Elon let the cat out of the bag. That's the point. Your assumption leads to the contradiction. Make a new assumption and then the contradiction disappears.
Krugerrand
Meow
*snork* If you know about it and you're not an employee then the e-mail was leaked, just not to a loudmouth or the media.
you don't send an email to thousands of people containing highly pertinent information that investors would be interested in without knowing that it would be "leaked".
larmor
Active Member
Except that in GS' B-school this size expansion would mean more robots, more raw materials and more inventory, all clearly not needed when you can waive pixie dust to build a business...
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Krugerrand
Meow
That's entirely different than the assumption being made that Elon leaked it on purpose. Of course there's a chance that one employee amongst thousands will break company protocols, but it's not a sure thing. In this case it was an e-mail vital to Tesla's future and reaching a very important goal. A goal that employees are busting their butts to get to. Employees would know the importance of the content and that leaking that content might very well mean failure. Failure means that even if that employee isn't found out, they might lose their job if Tesla doesn't get what they need within the designated time frame - capital raise for Model 3.
It's interesting the thought process that thinks it's expected that an employee will break company protocol. I wasn't raised like that and thus assume people will be better than that until they prove otherwise. It's not like Tesla is testing chemicals on innocents or some other horrid action that requires someone with a conscience to squeal at full volume.
Ulmo
Active Member
Thank you for this information. So, the black line astride the red line for area #11 and the area to the left of area #11 going up to the existing public road is the old land contiguous with the factory land area that might have or not have ever been part of the factory land GM or NUMMI owned (it seemed to me like it was buffer land for future development by the factory but I didn't know), but now Fremont is putting in their non-car development projects, but the city plan said that the particular #11 area is for R&D commercial space, so Tesla seemingly took it back again, probably as a lease or something, with a good deal of negotiation going on. And the area to the left of #11 that is also prior land area contiguous with the factory land within the same public street boundaries as the factory, is also part of the city development for anti-car projects, with housing, stores, etc., which will not be part of Tesla factory. And then across the public street from that (further left, way off the above map) is more anti-car development projects, too. It's mostly extremely high density housing and other related paraphernalia. Someone else came up with docs for that project here already some days ago.sF Chronicle reports Tesla has plans to double the size of Fremont:
Tesla’s new long-range plan could double size of Fremont factory
Area #1 and I believe part of #2 are fields; up until recently, both were fields, but recently, part of #2, or all of it, or none of it but an area adjacent to it, were paved and made into Tesla parking.
The rest of the areas, #3-#12 (including #11 which I mentioned above), are already parking lots, and completely jammed full with Tesla factory work and parked cars (employee, contractor, product and customer parking), overflowing. BART is set to open their Warm Springs extension soon (already way overdue), and with it that BART station (also way overdue), and then Tesla can tell their employees to ride BART to and from work (I have no idea if Tesla will do this considering they are a car company, but Elon has publicly very strongly said he expects his factory people to use the BART station in a huge way, so I suspect a little urging from Tesla in some way). Of course, that means some people's shifts can't start or end after 10pm or before 7am because of mass transit schedules. Probably Tesla will tell their employees to simply park at BART feeder stations, such as Berryessa Terminal. When this happens, watch Week 1 of BART opening Berryessa Terminal get 100% of their parking lot full. It will be funny. Also, I hope Tesla buys some of those electric buses for the shuttle to and from the Warm Springs station.
The current use of those areas is roughly (I may be off):
#1 & part of #2: Fields.
#6-7, #10, & part of #2: Employee and contractor parking. (#2 used to be all fields, but they recently installed parking, and that seems to have alleviated the employee parking somewhat in my observations, with it being now less overflowing.)
#8-#9, #11-#12: Product, contractor, factory equipment and other inventory parking.
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Elon Musk dumped by Wall St’s Goldman, Morgan now that he really needs them
There’s an old saying about bankers being people who offer you an umbrella while the sun is shining but grab it back when rain starts falling. Super entrepreneur Elon Musk will surely agree. At the time he needs them most, two of New York’s most powerful financial institutions have turned their backs on him. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been long-time supporters of Musk’s dreams of revolutionising the motor, space and renewable energy industries. Right now, when he needs them to support a major fund-raising drive for Tesla and SolarCity, both have switched their assessments of his businesses to “sell”. The boy from Pretoria has been through a lot worse and is sure to overcome this setback too. But it will hurt. And serve as a reminder for the rest of us that Wall Street’s “super helpers” remain loyal to only one thing – self-interest. – Alec Hogg
By David Welch
(Bloomberg) — Elon Musk is losing some of his big Wall Street cheerleaders just when he needs them the most. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of Musk’s top bankers....
Elon Musk dumped by Wall St's Goldman, Morgan now that he really needs them - BizNews.com
There’s an old saying about bankers being people who offer you an umbrella while the sun is shining but grab it back when rain starts falling. Super entrepreneur Elon Musk will surely agree. At the time he needs them most, two of New York’s most powerful financial institutions have turned their backs on him. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been long-time supporters of Musk’s dreams of revolutionising the motor, space and renewable energy industries. Right now, when he needs them to support a major fund-raising drive for Tesla and SolarCity, both have switched their assessments of his businesses to “sell”. The boy from Pretoria has been through a lot worse and is sure to overcome this setback too. But it will hurt. And serve as a reminder for the rest of us that Wall Street’s “super helpers” remain loyal to only one thing – self-interest. – Alec Hogg
By David Welch
(Bloomberg) — Elon Musk is losing some of his big Wall Street cheerleaders just when he needs them the most. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of Musk’s top bankers....
Elon Musk dumped by Wall St's Goldman, Morgan now that he really needs them - BizNews.com
Looks like this years will Tesla dominate the Large Luxury Car Segment even more than last year:
Large Luxury Car Sales In America - September 2016 YTD - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Tesla, unfortunately, doesn't release model-specific monthly U.S. sales data, but HybridCars.com estimates 4100 September Tesla Model S sales, 21,400 YTD.
Large Luxury Car Sales In America - September 2016 YTD - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Tesla, unfortunately, doesn't release model-specific monthly U.S. sales data, but HybridCars.com estimates 4100 September Tesla Model S sales, 21,400 YTD.
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Donald Trump is basically the single biggest d-bag on the planet... and ranks high in the list of the worst people that have ever existed.
but I think it was well known by debate #1 that he had no chance... there was a bounce of relief after that debate... I think Donald Trump losing is already priced into the market.
It would make me happy if he walked away... his brand implodes... he goes bankrupt again and never recovers.
dude... this is not trolling... i'm serious... the republican party is destroyed. their credibility is destroyed. but how this affects markets on Monday is unclear. on one hand... it's good for companies that would benefit from government backing... on another hand... the republican party tends to be in favor of corporate interests... either way... this whole thing is a sad moment in US history.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
racer26
Active Member
1. No. They won't. They *can't*.
Ultimately, yes, eventually. But not in the near future, and certainly not within the timespan that Wall St pays attention to. Wall St is super myopic and can often only see 1-2 quarters into the future.
Tesla has been working on the gigafactory since at least 2014. I agree with you that other companies could do it in the same speed as Tesla, but at best, that means a competing factory opening in 2019, if they started today. When first conceived, gigafactory would produce more lithium batteries than the rest of the world's battery factories *combined*. Then, Tesla announced that improvements in its design and planning meant they'd actually produce 3x that number in reality. By volume, its the second largest building *in the world*. At the amped up output rating, its *still* only going to be enough to produce enough batteries for about 1M cars/yr. Currently, the competitors have announced a few plans that maybe account for a collective 25GWh. Tesla's GF has a nameplate capacity of 150GWh, and Tesla is already talking about building the second one, to keep up with demand.
GM's deal with LGChem for batteries for the Bolt is restricting Bolt production to 30k/yr. Model 3 is targeting a 500k/yr run rate, and demand looks like that won't be a problem, if the pre-order numbers are any indication. No other long-range BEV competitor has even announced hypothetical run rates, but we know that they can't be very high, because the batteries simply don't exist.
2. Are you serious? Every review I've read says that DrivePilot drives like a drunk 10 year old, while Autopilot is much better, though still does not drive like a highly skilled driver. The War For Autonomous Driving: 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class VS. 2017 Tesla Model S
The problem, is that they can paint hydrogen as emission free all they want, the reality is different.
Hydrogen is difficult to obtain. We have two primary methods of obtaining it. Method 1) Electrolysis of water. You can do this with renewable electricity, and that's fine, but the reality is that the process requires HUGE amounts of energy, and our electricity supply chain is full of fossil fuels. Maybe someday this could be viable, but it is not today; at least, not in the quantities required to replace the world's automotive fleet. Worse than that, the process of using electrolysis of water uses more electricity than simply powering the vehicle with the electricity directly. That leaves Method 2) Fracking. Which is horribly polluting.
Don't throw in the towel yet. We know you can beat him...
Ulmo
Active Member
This reminds me of the "Intel Hotel" I used to work at in Santa Clara in 2008 using an at-the-time old business model, where the factory was Intel's, but all the machines were owned by "owners" who were various companies that built the machines and rented space from Intel for those machines. Of course, the hotel was a factory, and the occupants were machines. Then, any customers of those machine owners, many of whom were Intel itself, would then purchase use of those machines. (My job was basically supporting the "hotel maids" who did cleanup (moving walls, building walls, taking walls down, etc.), whenever customers (owners (machine owners)) wanted to move (at the time, mostly moving out, mostly moving to China; these costs would be passed on to Intel, who passed them on to the owners as hotel fees, who I'm sure negotiated prices with Intel for whenever Intel bought stuff (machine use) from them that included those costs. Sometimes I would see the "bellhops" (cranes, riggers, etc.) as they moved machines in and out.)
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Your comment reveals a fundamental misunderstanding about how markets work. The market does not price in outcomes, it prices in probabilities.
Before today's recording surfaced, the market should have been pricing in ~20% probability of a Trump victory.
Let's say that probability declines to 10% or even 5% on the eve of Election Day. Assuming the market favors a Clinton victory, the market should STILL react positively if she wins--even though that is the most likely outcome--as the probability of a Trump presidency declines to 0% overnight, which IS material.
You are not alone though. Over and over again I see people repeating this flawed notion of outcomes being "priced in" without mentioning the true dynamic at play, which is the flux of the weighted probabilities of all possible outcomes.
Proving once again Arthur Koestler's proposition in The Act of Creation, that highly intelligent people often have a good sense of humor.
Sounds like quantum mechanics to me and thus the market price at the end of the day is but one measurement in a particular time, or universe.
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Interesting change.
Tesla model X ordering (custom) has dropped the 60D option, accessory tow hitch (1.25")--only 2" tow hitch available, and now all model X come standard with Air suspension.
Standard suspension coils are not offered anymore and folks are saying that those with coils ordered (5 seats, coils, etc...) are being called to change their orders.
Also they've dropped the standard white color (no charge) and titanium silver color (the brownish one).
Oh, and they added back the P90D.
Tesla model X ordering (custom) has dropped the 60D option, accessory tow hitch (1.25")--only 2" tow hitch available, and now all model X come standard with Air suspension.
Standard suspension coils are not offered anymore and folks are saying that those with coils ordered (5 seats, coils, etc...) are being called to change their orders.
Also they've dropped the standard white color (no charge) and titanium silver color (the brownish one).
Oh, and they added back the P90D.
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