149.79 M shares outstanding.
$100M
$0.66 per share... is TMC scooping the major story?
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149.79 M shares outstanding.
$100M
$0.66 per share... is TMC scooping the major story?
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Yeah, even at $3,000 each, that's $240.7 million, minus about $66 million, which is roughly $175 million. I thinking that with gas prices low and lots of people buying trucks, SUVs, and bigger cars, there must be a corresponding demand for ZEV credits from the major automakers that don't make enough ZEV credits by themselves.
Excellent find. My only concern is that dumping a huge amount as Tesla has obviously distorts the market, so I would expect the number to be in the $2500-3000 range. Obviously this is just my guess.
Calvin.K
Member
This could be part of the reason for the gap closing
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149M shares outstanding
$175M
$1.168 per share
consensus EPS estimate for Q3, -$0.64
Can someone confirm I am not crazy?
Guess I was right - too bad I was too busy with other work to take my own advice. Hope a few of you made a few bucks this morning.
Your math looks good. But I for one don't have enough information to answer your question.
Totally agree, any way you slice it is huge addition to the bottom line. Just for a measure of conservatism, though, it seems that Fiat, Ford and Honda bought a lot of credits from Tesla, which might be because they were heavily discounted (which is consistent with Elon bitching about it). As an absolutely conservative estimate, I came up with about $50MM addition to the bottom line in the post up-thread.
Once again, whatever the discount we seem to be in for a very pleasant treat on the 26th.
One quibble - 15Q2 was $14 million ZEV, not 27: "Q2 Automotive revenue included $27 million of total regulatory credit revenue, of which $14 million came from the sale of ZEV credits." This brings the per credit total down to $3827.
Great info!
Your math looks good. But I for one don't have enough information to answer your question.
In this narrow regard am I crazy?
(you are right you don't have enough info to certify me overall)
Totally agree, any way you slice it is huge addition to the bottom line. Just for a measure of conservatism, though, it seems that Fiat, Ford and Honda bought a lot of credits from Tesla, which might be because they were heavily discounted (which is consistent with Elon bitching about it). As an absolutely conservative estimate, I came up with about $50MM addition to the bottom line in the post up-thread.
Once again, whatever the discount we seem to be in for a very pleasant treat on the 26th.
Right, $50M is $0.33 per share.
Crazy... Someone update their overall model with this pretty please
Agree. My WAG is that these 80K+ credits fetched between $1,500 and $2,500. Even with these ultra conservative numbers we are talking about at least $50MM - $130MM added to the bottom line.
This is on top of them likely breaking GAAP even due to the at least 24,500 vehicles delivered. This feels like Q1 2013 all over again...
I've spent so much time pouring over daily charts of TSLA that I have come to recognize the fingerprints of short-selling that is intended to pull down the stock price. Check out this graphic of the trading on the Monday following the Q3 delivery number reveal. Technical traders were talking about TSLA running significantly up if TSLA exceeded 215 and it was held at 214 that day. Coincidence? I think not if you look at the great amount of horizontal trading TSLA did that day. Someone was busy short-selling enough shares to keep TSLA at 214 and protect their current short position. You can see the unreasonable dip on opening to 208ish, you can see what appears to be a max cap of 214 but then an effort to push it down and hold at 213 and when that didn't hold you see 214 used as the cap again. Horizontal trading of a volatile stock like TSLA on a volatile day such as delivery number day is a sure giveaway.
Here's a chart of the next day's trading. Notice the many deep plunges, followed immediately by near-recoveries. This is a classic fingerprint of short-selling. If the dips were from news or general sentiment, you wouldn't see the almost-immediate near recoveries. The near recoveries are longs buying in at what looks like an attractive price to them. Bam! the stock takes another downward spike, it nearly recovers with longs buying again and then the cycle repeats. Eventually, longs start doubting the wisdom of buying in on this day. A huge plunge for no valid reason is a short-selling sign.
The shinanigans I spoke of yesterday at close was a trend where TSLA was heading for 195. Calvary Arsenal guessed we'd be going to 195 and I said 193.99. It turned out to be 193.96. When the SP closes a penny or a few cents below a whole number and you see a reversal of the trend a minute or so before the end of trading, it strikes me as manipulation designed to deny the longs the story of having reached that whole number. It's a whole lot more reasonable explanation than to assume that I have the ability to guess the closing price of a stock within 4 cents if I didn't already know what the game was.
Another technique of the shorts is to do the selling in the low-volume afternoon hours. I have seen lots of days where TSLA traded positively in the high-volume morning hours and then slid well into the red during the late afternoon hours when there was no news of significance and the broader markets were not descending.
OK. In my totally amateur and not to be relied upon for personal trading decisions model (patent pending), I added $154 million of ZEV credits (assumed $65 million old 2016 credits @3500 and new Q3 credits @2500), which is $144 million more than the $10 million ZEV my model used to assume...and I got the following changes:In this narrow regard am I crazy?
(you are right you don't have enough info to certify me overall)
Right, $50M is $0.33 per share.
Crazy... Someone update their overall model with this pretty please
non-GAAP: from $0.15 --> $0.89
GAAP: from ($0.24) --> $0.51
That's....that's something, right there. Obviously this isn't priced in yet. My strategy: if I don't see any articles written about this, I'm going to hold off on going further all in until right before earnings because I expect to trade sideways or down until then. If I start to see articles, I'm buying calls ASAP. Obviously, everyone should only bet what they can afford, do own diligence, etc.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
MartinAustin
Active Member
CNBC is reporting that the Model 3 has been quietly delayed to mid-2018 deliveries.
They did not back up their claim yet
They did not back up their claim yet
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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