Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Novice]

given the generally bad perception of the SC merger, in combination with the SP drop after the merger talks have been announced and the more lasting drop after the managements agreed, it seems obvious to me that some large investors want to reduce or sell their stocks and diversify away from tesla. This become more evident as there have been a lot great news in the last time but the stock price is still down. I don't think this is due to shorties because the short argument gets weaker(long term shorts) and think large investors use higher SP from good news to reduce.
Someone in this thread pointed out, that it may be Baillie Clifford. I think it's also possible that GS reduced further or sold completely. I wonder if you guys know any way of figuring out who sells and in which volumes during a quarter? maybe some websites with gossip. i am actually quite a newbie so anything could help me. of course there are 13F filings every quarter but i don't know how trustworthy they are and you have no clue for full 3 months.

Another thing i am curious about is the number of diluted shares outstanding. i guess the difference to basic shares is because of new accounting and it shows the convertibles out there (mainly 2019 and 2021, 2018 is almost payed as far as i know), but i'm not sure about the change in basic shares up to almost 149 from 140 a quarter ago. (I think the capital raise was from 132,5 to 140) so where does this come from? elon's ceo grant and other sbc?

What about more bullish investors buying in on large positions ? In this divided world of bears and bulls, there's bound to be large bullish investors as well. Seems to always hear of large institutions selling off but can't seem to find a large prominent institution buying in on a significant scale

 

[EinSV]

My guess is the future for TE look so insanely good.. they just can express it without looking... well, insane. and ppl say things along this lines already about Elon. Not worth giving them any more amunition.

Better to let the numbers speak for themselves when they are real.. not sizzle so they can be used as fud ammunition, but is propper tasty undisputable real steak (or in this case perhaps filet mignon).

I get impatient to see numbers (PP/PW orders, margins, projections) but that's my own problem. Waiting for the "filet mignon" seems like a great approach, especially since the market seems to be in a mood to ignore even regular "steak" these days. Also, a steady stream of positive surprises over the next few quarters would be a very good thing.

 

[dennis]

wrong thread

Maybe you missed the last line of my post:

While the specifics are slightly OT, it does indicate a potential obstacle to adoption of Powerwall into existing solar arrays.

 

[JBRR]

I think if the solar roofs were operational that Elon would have mentioned that and even showed the power generation. As is though, it seems these were early proof-of-concept roofs that show that solar roofs can look amazing. I think there's still a lot of work to get done.

Btw, I was at the event last night. Hanging with @FredTMC and his wife. Fun time. Great event with great food and not too crowded.

The roofs looked amazing! Even better in person. I couldn't tell that they were solar roofs before the presentation. Out of the 4 houses I speculated that maybe one or two of the houses might have solar roofs but "for sure" not all of them. When Elon said they were all solar roofs, people around me were in shock and disbelief. Guy next to me kept saying "holy sh**, they look amazing." He couldn't stop repeating himself.

The roofs looked better than normal roofs. Everyone at the event was impressed at how good the roofs looked.

I spent a lot of time talking to a Tesla engineer who was answering questions about the new powerwall. The Powerwall 2.0 looks like a hugely improved product over Powerwall 1.0. Looks like the inverter is a 5000 way DC to AC inverter so that battery power can be fed into house (or grid). However, of installing solar you'll still need an inverter for your solar panel system, I was told.

The Tesla engineer said that Powerwall 1.0 install costs we're roughly $7-8k, largely due to the need to install another inverter. So with the new Powerwall, install costs go down dramatically since the inverter is built-in the the Powerwall.

I was also told the solar roof was largely a Solarcity product, meaning development was largely done at Solarcity.

It's likely that the presentation was supposed to include a power producing roof and a switch to power drawn from powerwalls as the sun went down.

I base that on this tweet:



But seems like something got in the way.
I do not think Elon would have posted that tweet if he had known that there was 0% chance that roofs were going to be operational.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It's likely that the presentation was supposed to include a power producing roof and a switch to power drawn from powerwalls as the sun went down.

I base that on this tweet:

View attachment 200578

But seems like something got in the way.
I do not think Elon would have posted that tweet if he had known that there was 0% chance that roofs were going to be operational.

During the presentation Elon said that roofs are not functional because they had only two weeks for installation.

 

[MikeC]

We know the tiles were not interconnected: A look at all of Tesla’s new solar roof products [Gallery]

"For the sake of full disclosure, Musk admitted that the systems on the houses were not working, but that’s just because they were not connected together.

They are the real solar roof solutions with the real solar cells, but they were just not harvesting sunlight. the excuse was that they only had two weeks to set everything up at the location."

 

[racer26]

Have you priced permanent roofing? Clay tile is fairly inexpensive in the desert southwest, but most places all permanent roofing is expensive. This is why people use asphalt roofing.

This new solar roofing is a premium product for upscale buyers.

Maybe, maybe not. He said comparable to traditional roofing. If its as much a no brainer as Elon is implying, it might be cost competitive with an asphalt roof. Most places asphalt roofing is the go-to roof. If you want to change the world, that's the roof you have to be cost competitive with.

 

[SunCatcher]

It's likely that the presentation was supposed to include a power producing roof and a switch to power drawn from powerwalls as the sun went down.
I base that on this tweet:
View attachment 200578

But seems like something got in the way.
I do not think Elon would have posted that tweet if he had known that there was 0% chance that roofs were going to be operational.

Thanks to above posters for clarifying this; roofs were not ready for operational demonstration.

 

[CatB]

In my grid-tie system, the SunPower inverters convert DC from the panels to AC only when they sense the presence of AC power from the grid. This protects the utility company lineman from getting zapped by a distributed power generation source he doesn't know about. This works fine in the load-shifting case because the grid is functioning. But in the disaster case the grid is down and therefore my existing inverters won't allow the solar panels to charge the Powerwall.

This is actually what I would like to know. Lots of people have backup generators that somehow manage a cutover in a power outage. I'm sure it's not a "simple matter of engineering" but it can't be insurmountable - how much would it cost and how much would people pay for it?

 

[RobStark]

TE roofs are comparable to clay tile and slate, not asphalt roofing. This solar roofing is a higher end product for higher end homes.

It also appears not ready for prime time. No wiring info, no talk of non-solar "blank" pieces. No talk of code requirements, etc etc etc

1) Elon specifically compared it to the cost of asphalt roof plus electricity bill.

2) This wasn't a trade show for solar installers nor roof contractors to discuss wiring, code requirements etc etc etc.

3) When Elon spoke of the Tuscan style pieces he specifically spoke of non-solar blank pieces. Dark pieces had solar cells and light colored were blank.

 

[MitchJi]

forever hopeful that people will engage their brains, draw from a well of under-used common sense, do some basic research and patiently wait for additional information to be announced... And that's only funny because it's so pathetic.

It's not going to happen on this thread or the market in general l

So the tiles are very cool, I love the choices.

However they're all kind of meaningless to hundreds of thousands of people in the Southwest like me who live in flat-roof adobe-architecture style homes. No way I would put designer Tesla Glass tiles on a flat roof that nobody can see. I guess I'm stuck with a conventional ground-based set of panels or roof-based raised-angle racks of panels from some other company. I do want Tesla batteries however.

The likely problem with shingles is that they normally require a slope in order to work. I don't think that the fact that they look better means that they cost more. I think that the cost will be mainly dependent on the market integrated roof vs panels on the roof.

Well, the variation depends on where you live and your life style. If you live in a temperate climate all year long then the seasonal variation would be small. But if you live in places that have hot summers and like to have the house temperature at 72F, then summer consumption would be quite high. Daily consumption can easily vary between 20 kWh to 60 kWh between seasons in the later scenario. Usually in these places the average is higher, too.

That's the ways most people in the US live, but that doesn't mean it's not insanity. Build an energy hog and bolt on an air conditioner. We're lucky to live in a building made of concrete block walls. By opening the windows at night, and closing them during the day there are only a handful of days when the temperature exceeds 70 degrees, when the outside temperature is over 100F. It would be easy to design buildings that were massively better than that. Passive Solar.

 

[Runarbt]

Maybe, maybe not. He said comparable to traditional roofing. If its as much a no brainer as Elon is implying, it might be cost competitive with an asphalt roof. Most places asphalt roofing is the go-to roof. If you want to change the world, that's the roof you have to be cost competitive with.

Comparable to Conventional roofing +electricity for the house... so it will be considerable more expensive than asphalt roofing.

 

[30seconds]

1. Really, really impressive. I'm about to do a major remodel and may put it off for a bit to understand this (not that it is moving particularly fast)

2. I'm guessing that installs like these are in the $50-75k range at launch. I don't think Elon was referencing asphalt roofing when saying cost of conventional roof plus electricity. Tuscan style clay and slate roofs are substantially ore expensive than asphalt, but obviously there is a large enough market.

Overall I think the pricing strategy is the same as the S--> model 3. Start in the high premium market and then move down as costs drop. Plenty of high end neighborhoods where people will pay extra for this product

 

[kelevra]

What about more bullish investors buying in on large positions ? In this divided world of bears and bulls, there's bound to be large bullish investors as well. Seems to always hear of large institutions selling off but can't seem to find a large prominent institution buying in on a significant scale

i think Fidelity actually increased TSLA position while reducing SC after the merger has been announced. I'm sure that a lot of people buying into TSLA right know, especially given the good news and new products. But it seems like some large stakeholder are still reducing due to the SC merger and this holds the price down. (for me this is actually good news, because i plan to increase my stake if clinton gets elected and the merger is successful)

 

[RobStark]

There was no mention in the presentation as to whether these solar roofs were operational or not.

Those were not operational houses.

It was Wisteria Lane, the set from ABC's Desperate Housewives.

Elon said the solar roofs were not functional.

 

[SunCatcher]

Getting oil and fossil fuels out of our lives:

Got it out of our cars (no more oil and gas with a Tesla)
Getting it out of our electricity production (with Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal)
Getting it off our roofs with PV Glass panels/shingles (How much oil is saved from avoiding all those asphalt shingles? Hint; A LOT.)
The future is getting brighter every day. Gotta love it.

Thanks to all the engineers, designers, builders, and employees, who have worked so hard to get us this far.
And thanks to Elon Musk, for pushing them so hard to expedite this process.

 

[Matias]

I think it is possible, that the product (solar roof) is not ready and this was rushed for merger proposal.

 

[ggr]

How do you not consider a 20% probability of Trump victory significant? If I told you there was a 20% chance of you getting into a car wreck next week, would you drive without insurance? Or at all?



That's just...not how probability works. At all. 1/5 chance is 1/5 chance.

The probability of rolling a 7 on a pair of dice is 17%--worse than Trump's odds at this moment, and that's before this new FBI news has been factored in. Would you go to Las Vegas and bet your TSLA position on a single roll of dice? Would you say "I just don't see how it can be a 7" ??

Odds are not probabilities. If you're lucky, maybe they will be a good approximation.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think if the solar roofs were operational that Elon would have mentioned that and even showed the power generation. As is though, it seems these were early proof-of-concept roofs that show that solar roofs can look amazing. I think there's still a lot of work to get done.

Btw, I was at the event last night. Hanging with @FredTMC and his wife. Fun time. Great event with great food and not too crowded.

The roofs looked amazing! Even better in person. I couldn't tell that they were solar roofs before the presentation. Out of the 4 houses I speculated that maybe one or two of the houses might have solar roofs but "for sure" not all of them. When Elon said they were all solar roofs, people around me were in shock and disbelief. Guy next to me kept saying "holy sh**, they look amazing." He couldn't stop repeating himself.

The roofs looked better than normal roofs. Everyone at the event was impressed at how good the roofs looked.

I spent a lot of time talking to a Tesla engineer who was answering questions about the new powerwall. The Powerwall 2.0 looks like a hugely improved product over Powerwall 1.0. Looks like the inverter is a 5000 way DC to AC inverter so that battery power can be fed into house (or grid). However, of installing solar you'll still need an inverter for your solar panel system, I was told.

The Tesla engineer said that Powerwall 1.0 install costs we're roughly $7-8k, largely due to the need to install another inverter. So with the new Powerwall, install costs go down dramatically since the inverter is built-in the the Powerwall.

I was also told the solar roof was largely a Solarcity product, meaning development was largely done at Solarcity.

I agree with this assessment, there's still some work to done. Which is why they stated it won't be available until summer of 2017, which means late 2017 or early 2018. But really, who cares, they're first mover yet again, with a different product people will buy.

I was told by a Tesla employee that either PowerPacks or Powerwall (can't remember which) will be produced in December and shipped out in January. When asked if they'll be produced at Nummi or the GF, the rep declined to say..

There was a fella who was Anti Tesla, anti Elon, anti scty in the crowd. He sat at my table and sparked an awkward conversation, claiming that he worked for the solar industry. He thinks the plant Buffalo plant will remain empty, says the roof designs won't work, etc. After listening to him ramble on for 5 minutes, I finished up my last burger, and told him "don't bet against Elon." His response was, "yea this is the wrong crowd to do that in anyway." I also told him "I'll be buying more shares come Monday," and left. The look on his face was priceless.

The things shorts do.... as investors we just have to realize all shorts can do is talk and use "tobacco science" to validate their theory. While Elon and the team produce real results, new products, and continue to amaze/attract a strong cult following. Love it, just love it.

 

[electracity]

But really, who cares, they're first mover yet again,

About the 200th mover. But one that may actually succeed.