SCTY is the one that is being manipulated here (it can be done with much smaller number of shares). If you control price of SCTY you have risk free way to control price of TSLA. It's already going on since August.
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SCTY is the one that is being manipulated here (it can be done with much smaller number of shares). If you control price of SCTY you have risk free way to control price of TSLA. It's already going on since August.
racer26
Active Member
Right now the arb gap is actually wider than it was at market close on Friday.
I think the broader market is not taking this for granted. It's also not helping that recent press releases explicitly refer to SolarCity's sales department which make it doubtful that they really have the intention to axe an fold it within the Tesla retail side.
Individuals and institutions with large holdings in TSLA don't sell in big blocks early in the morning in such a way that they bring the stock price down (unless there's bad news which requires a very quick movement). Big holders of stock tend to sell slowly so as to have the least influence on stock price and therefore exit at the highest price.
Tesla mentioned additional info about the merger will be released tomorrow.
Slight observation: I don't think people understand the significance of SolarCity having 300,000 customers. When the time comes for these people to get a new roof, they will certainly get a SolarCity roof. At least 50% of current SolarCity customers will buy a Powerwall within next 1-2 years.
Slight observation: I don't think people understand the significance of SolarCity having 300,000 customers. When the time comes for these people to get a new roof, they will certainly get a SolarCity roof. At least 50% of current SolarCity customers will buy a Powerwall within next 1-2 years.
After watching before the flood, it's far clearer.
Again just looking at the big investment banks not even one of them updated, or even re-iterated, their price targets this morning. It's as if the roof event didn't even happen.
I am expecting some updates later tonight or early tomorrow based on what happens on the financials call.
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The value of the powerwall to every existing Solarcity customer is backup only. Some will buy simply because it is a neat product. But solarcity customer on the whole are the people who went for the "free solar" pitch. The powerwall will not be free.
I do think in general the new powerwall will sell very well worldwide. It will also help drive new solarcity sales.
doggusfluffy
Closed
If you listen to some of the SolarCity earnings calls around early 2016 you will hear a much colder, sometimes even contemptuous tone.
A backup generator that uses Gasoline or Diesel costs far more than the Powerwall. Even if you assume it is only used as backup, it's a huge bargain, and there is a huge market for it.
The whole attitude change after the SunEdison debacle, that draw down the whole industry. IMO the whole negativity around SolarCity is mostly psychological ... but when you need money that's not a minor thing.
There is a new forum thread titled "Valuation". It's pretty sickening looking at comments, seems like everyone in this forum is still blindedly bullish, implying more downside to the stock. Until everyone throws the white flag, I don't see us bouncing back from this valley of the death.
Statistically, user CalgaryArsenal is your best contrary indicator. When TSLA hit $140-150 early in the year, he threw a white flag and giving up, then we bounced fiercely in Mar and Apr to $260-270. CalgaryArsenal was nowhere to be found during that rally. Then, suddenly he showed up again at $270 being bullish, and now look what happened since then.
This forum is the best contra-indicator for TSLA. Used to be when "haikus" are out, the stock topped out.
Statistically, user CalgaryArsenal is your best contrary indicator. When TSLA hit $140-150 early in the year, he threw a white flag and giving up, then we bounced fiercely in Mar and Apr to $260-270. CalgaryArsenal was nowhere to be found during that rally. Then, suddenly he showed up again at $270 being bullish, and now look what happened since then.
This forum is the best contra-indicator for TSLA. Used to be when "haikus" are out, the stock topped out.
racer26
Active Member
Right, SolarCity has 20 year contracts with the people whose roofs those PPA systems are on, and those roofs have 20 year contracts with the power company for a rate at which they will be paid for the power generated. In essence, SCTY gets (most of) the money from the power company. Its rate is prescribed for 20 years, and for the power company to reneg on it constitutes an actionable breach of contract - zero risk. What will happen (how much money the power company will pay SCTY by way of SCTY's customer whose roof it is) is known upfront. That future cashflow is an asset, and its paid for by SCTY taking on debt in the amount needed to pay for the installation at no upfront cost to the customer. SCTY now owns the debt, and the future cashflow. If you can sell off the future cashflow for a greater amount than the debt, OR carry the debt for less than the cashflow, there is no-risk.
Really? Aren't generators much cheaper than 6k?
racer26
Active Member
Small ones not capable of supporting an entire house, yes. House-sized generators for no user interaction required failover operation? No.
Gerardf
Active Member
Mod Edit: Discussion of "Ignore" IS TABU! I am not going to keep repeating this.
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It depends on the type and the home but I know people who paid 20-25K for their Natural Gas Generators for their homes. This doesn't even include the inspection costs that have to be done or the actual fuel. The Powerwall 2 is a huge step change.
This is one of the reasons why this is such a huge market opportunity for Tesla and it befuddles me why SP hasn't reacted.
Which is why the merger has a good chance of looking brilliant within a few quarters. Elon's being greedy when the general market consensus is fearful.
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