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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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You do realise that an equal number of shares have been sold as have been bought, right?

It's very simple: the market is pricing in Trump becoming president and the collective estimate of this is that Tesla as a company is worth less, reflecting an expectation by the market that Tesla will be less profitable in the future than what the market expected before the election.

This could be because of specific things Trump says he believes and intends to act upon: climate change scepticism may adversely effects incentives for cars and solar and negatively effect legislation nation wide with regard to Tesla's businesses, Trump ideas on foreign/global trade may harm Tesla's global business.

Thank you for correcting me. Yes I do realize an equal number of shares have been bought and sold. I should have phrased my point more accurately, that being that I find a lot of us here over-analyze share price movements, and I find most blame "coordinated" attacks by shorts. I simply do not share this view.
 
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I agree with you. But I have bolded a sentence to point out, it isn't just the cost of health care, petroleum can actually kill the people you love. I bought my Model S in early 2013 because my wife was dying of leukemia at the time that was likely contracted from her childhood near a petroleum facility. I felt sick to my stomach to put gas in my car. For me, I am long on TSLA because I have personal commitment to support the end of ICE.

I just wanted to say, amidst all the bickering - I'm sorry about your wife. I'd like to think we're all here for reasons similar to yours, even though I know we aren't.

I hope more people begin to see it your way.
 
Doesn't matter if you make buckets, cars, coat hangars or bricks, if you are manufacturing things in America, using American workers, that is what Trump wants.

That's supposedly what all conservatives want. The same conservative governors and lawmakers who say American manufacturing and American products are good, are the exact same ones banning Tesla sales, stores, and service centers.

Again, it's absolutely frightening how many TSLA investors here have forgotten the political affiliations of states banning sales/stores of Tesla.

This is a huge, huge, huge concern for the stock price. At the very least, you have to acknowledge that this is a BIG uncertainty because conservative policy and Trump's historical action does not in the slightest bode well for letting Tesla succeed on even ground.

Trump may not be able to stop Musk from making amazing cars, but as conservative state governments show they can very easily stop him from selling/servicing cars and Trump so far has give zero indication that he will do anything except turn a blind eye.
 
Thank you for correcting me. Yes I do realize an equal number of shares have been bought and sold. I should have phrased my point more accurately, that being that I find a lot of us here over-analyze share price movements, and I find most blame "coordinated" attacks by shorts. I simply do not share this view.

Nobody blames today's drop on coordinated short selling. The evidence was to the contrary. Sometimes the evidence supports the short-selling thesis, and it's a good thing to have people offer that explanation on such days, along with evidence to support the claim. Take it or leave it, as you wish.
 
Thank you for correcting me. Yes I do realize an equal number of shares have been bought and sold. I should have phrased my point more accurately, that being that I find a lot of us here over-analyze share price movements, and I find most blame "coordinated" attacks by shorts. I simply do not share this view.

Not saying that i buy into these theories, but if a competitor or competitive industry wanted to coordinate a 'short attack', they could set a aside $1B from which some percentage for shorting, and some percentage for long term positions, then when they short, they have long term positions to sell.

This is a super naive analysis. I do offer it, since almost any company that has increasing growth yoy, beating estimates on eps, meeting or exceeding guidance, creating new markets, and vision for vertical integration of parts, sales, and energy to supply their products, would be by all means a hit on the market. Take examples from any company on the street. ANother naive example: netflix created a streaming market, and vertically integrated by coming pre loaded on lots of TVs/DVD players.

The new president's 'words' mirror the growth of tesla, clean energy or not. Unfortunately automation is taking some jobs away.
 
You certainly don't know that, and I'd suggest it's quite obviously false. More likely many of them simply felt the climate change issue was of lesser importance than other issues. Certainly for some the vote for Trump was mostly a vote against Clinton.

Being in New York, you have NO CLUE what the average, blue-collar workers in small-town Georgia, Alabama, and all the other states that went to Trump are thinking. I live among them. I am a conservative libertarian (though not a Trump supporter per se) who believes in climate change. In the last 2 years, I have not met a single Trump supporter who believes in climate change. In fact, I've not met one that wasn't 100% convinced that the entire climate change movement was anything more than a money-making scam. Worse, they will all tell you that Musk is a huge scammer living on the gov't tit.

I disagree with them, but when they call him a hypocrite for living in a $20 million dollar house with no solar panels in sight (not nearly enough to power that house anyway), it's difficult to argue with them.
 
Here's an interesting graph for those of you who think the involvement of the shorts in TSLA trading is just a minor annoyance. The graph is from a website called shortanalytics.com . I'm not too familiar with the website and cannot speak of their reliability, but if these numbers are true, they're eye-opening. Here is a recent graph of short vs. long activity for TSLA. You can see the 30 million + shares sold short of TSLA comprise a significantly larger percentage of daily trading activity than the 20% share of total control of TSLA shares would imply. In fact, the chart shows days when trading by shorts exceeds the trading by longs of TSLA.

shortnov.JPG
 
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UPDATE: Global Equities Research’s Chowdhry isn’t the only analyst taking a constructive view of Tesla. Baird’s Ben Kallo and Tyler Frank argue that Tesla is “relatively insulated from the effects of a Republican win.” They explain why:


Tesla should be relatively insulated from the effects of a Republican win, but sentiment will weigh on the stock. Tesla receives little government support for products, and does not anticipate federal tax incentives for the Model 3. As a result, we do not expect a significant amount of fundamental risk. That said, negative investor sentiment will likely weigh on the stock in the near term.

Tesla Motors: Wait, Trump’s Election Win is Good News?
 
PP1 W x D x H: 966mm x 1321mm x 2185mm Weight: 1720kg Energy Capacity: 95 kWh (AC)
PP2 W x D x H: 822mm x 1308mm x 2185mm Weight: 1622kg Energy Capacity: 210 kWh (AC)
A heavy weight on the bottom of a Powerpack father for stabilization?

Still makes no sense. Massively cheaper and simpler and it would work much better to put tabs or flanges on the bottom with holes for bolts.
What is your explanation why v1 weighs 1700kg+ for a measly 95kWh?
Batteries are heavy? I believe that the main reasons that the V2 is a little lighter than V1 for half the kWh, are more efficient packaging, 2170 vs 18650 cells, and improved cell chemistry.

I absolutely positive that they did not add weight as ballast to the V1, instead of including a handful of bolts.
Bolt Depot - Bolt Grade Markings and Strength Chart
Code:
Grade-Material     Nominal Size Range (inches)  
Grade 2                 1/4 thru 3/4
Low or medium
 carbon steel                        

Mechanical Properties  
  Proof Load(psi)     Min. Yield Strength (psi)    Min. Tensile Strength (psi)
    55,000                     57,000                          74,000
I you believe that Tesla would add ballast, and incur the environmental and financial costs of that choice vs including a handful of cheap bolts which would obviously do a massively better job of solving the problem of instability, then why are you investing your money in Tesla?
 
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There's no way a 1600-1700 kg Powerpack rack would be significantly unstable. I work with heavy racks, and they aren't at all unstable unless they have *a lot* of weight at the top. On the PP the weight will be fairly evenly distributed, as you can see the modules are evenly distributed across the height. You could probably drive into a PP with a truck at 10 mph and it would still be standing. The biggest issue with instability would be the ground/floor caving in under it, and there's no way ballast would help with that. Also, the PP1 will be more stable than the PP2, as it is wider, so if one of the versions needed ballast, it would be the PP2.

I think my guesstimates probably aren't far from the truth:

Switching to NCA would kill durability. And if it didn't, that in itself would be a battery revolution for Tesla. Let me try to break down the PP1 and PP2, with some guesstimates:

PP1:
- 320 kg, rack enclosure
- 30 kg, coolant loops
- 50 kg, A/C and heating unit
- 50 kg, heat exchanger
- 50 kg, cabling
- 20 kg, control unit
- 800 kg, battery modules
- 400 kg, pod casings, BMS
Total: 1720 kg

PP2:
- 250 kg, rack enclosure
- 30 kg, coolant loops
- 50 kg, A/C and heating unit
- 50 kg, heat exchanger
- 50 kg, cabling
- 20 kg control unit
- 959 kg, cells (14,208 cells at 67.5 grams/cell)
- 213 kg, pod casings, BMS
Total: 1622 kg

This is as close to something that makes sense as I can get. For PP2 I've assumed 888 cells per pod, which means a 41.3% improvement in chemistry.
 
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